2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ispos Jan. 4th-8th

Dem: 44% (+4)
GOP: 34% (-1)

Bye bye Tax Reform Bump.

To be fair, the previous Ipsos survey appears to be an outlier.  The three before that also had the Democrats up by double digits.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dana Rohrabacher says he is "unequivocally running for re-election".

http://www.rohrabacher.com/news/you-can-count-on-me

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Jan 8-9, 1312 RV (change from last week)

D 44 (+2)
R 37 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac: D+17

Dem: 52
Rep: 35

Source

Their previous poll (Dec 13-18) was 52-37 (D+15).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a question: Does the wording of the generic ballot question create any systematic biases?  In the Quinnipiac question wording, it asks which party "would you want to see win control of the House of Representatives"?  That's different from asking which party you are going to vote for, since you might like your own member of Congress better than the national party he/she represents.  Does that actually matter to this question, that different pollsters are asking slightly different things?

Q's wording eliminates any incumbency benefit, so it probably does make a difference.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, Jan 8-11, 600 RV

D 45
R 40

The last one of theirs I can find with generic ballot is from Feb, and was R 48, D 46.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not sure where to post this one:


Public Policy Polling, Ganz (D) internal
Jan. 10-11,  +/- 4.1

CA-22

Devin Nunes (R): 50%
"Democratic Opponent": 45%

Maybe true, but that would require literally unprecedented mobilization of Latinos.

They're probably quite motivated after a year of the Trump administration.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Do you guys think the potential government shutdown will hurt or help the Democrats?

To the extent that it would have any effect, which is probably not much, it would be more likely to help the Democrats.  It's hard to argue against the Republicans owning it when they control both chambers of Congress and the White House.

Having said that, I think a shutdown is unlikely.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats slipping farther in the generic ballot every day. Newest morning consult has D+3, Yougov D+6. I.e., not a wave.

*Ignores fundraising numbers, special elections, GOP resignations, human capital of dem nominees, presidential approval, etc. Not to mention that Morning Consult has always been R friendly and YouGov not being the most reliable pollster.

Just because a pollster is R friendly doesn't mean one should ignore its trends over time. MC was 41-55 Dec 14-18. Now its 45-50. Big shift.

And Quinnipac showed the Democrats expanding their lead to 17 points.

But his point is valid that regardless of a specific pollster's lean to one side or the other, watching it for trends is a useful data point.  It's even more useful to look at the overall polling average and its trends.  It's clear that both Trump and the generic ballot R have improved in recent weeks.  Does this mean their numbers are great?  No.  Are these the only factors to look at?  No; you listed several other important ones.  Are the Republicans still likely to lose in November?  Probably.

The worst thing to do is to automatically assume that whatever trend is in progress will continue unabated.  If Trump improves 1% a week, he'd be at 80% by the midterms.  If he lost 1% a week, as he was a few weeks ago, he'd be in negative numbers by then.   Neither of those is going to happen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It’s so obvious the Democratic generic ballot lead is collapsing, at this rate Republicans could have a 1-2 point generic ballot lead by November. The biggest problem for Democrats is that when the Dow Jones is hitting records every day (it’s going to be 30,000 by the midterms), and the GDP is growing at 3% every quarter people don’t feel compelled to throw the Incumbent party out of Congress.

Oh really? Tell that to Senator-elect Jarchow.

Seriously Lear, we are sick of this. Enough with your bullsh**t.

The Ignore button is your friend.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's clear the GOP is going to make gains in November. The question is, how many seats? I'm guessing around 10 right now, but could be close to 15.

No, it's not clear.  What is your rationale for this opinion?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist/NPR, 1350 adults, Jan 8-10 (change from last month)

D 46 (-4)
R 40 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

I see your New Year's resolution has worn off.  Time to put you back on Ignore.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow. Republicans only down 47-45 in Minnesota generic ballot. Buh bye, Peterson, MN-1, and Nolan.
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/954040514155827204

Bad poll after bad poll for Democrats.

I see your New Year's resolution has worn off.  Time to put you back on Ignore.

I'm not sure why "lol I was only pretending to be dumb" justified taking him off ignore in the first place?

I took him off because some of his posts that I saw quoted were reasonable and interesting.  (I won't make the same mistake again.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew: Democrats lead +14 (53-39)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.people-press.org/2018/01/18/2-the-2018-congressional-elections/

I don't find a previous generic ballot poll from Pew, but FWIW they've typically been on the low end for Trump approvals.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Should we split out Generic ballot from all other items into its own thread?

I think that's a good idea.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ryan said on SOTU that he's undecided on running for re-election. Will decide in the spring.

He's got to be really tired of all the hassle.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Indicator of the current environment:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hey GOP, where's your megadonors now?

Shouldn't that be MAGAdonors?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Charlie Cook estimates D takeover chances at 60% in the House and 25-35% in the Senate: https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/663877?unlock=RK7ACM79HRT8QLEW.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

You must be logged in to read this quote.