Non-political 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow, this could be really bad.  Let's hope it takes one of those recurving tracks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

They're also tracking the possibility of a second storm forming behind Irma (would be named Jose if it develops into a tropical storm).

I also think this thread should become a general Hurricane thread for the season.

Jose? Damn Hispanics at it again!

Followed by Katia! Russia!!!!
Then Lee (may be too racist for certain millennial snowflakes)
Maria. More hispanics
Ahh Nate! There's a good old American name haha

I'm thinking Irma hits like Antigua and the Virgin Islands and maybe Puerto Rico. After that it's anyone's guess. Hopefully it curves between Bermuda and NC, but the gulf/SE are in play. Best hope for the US may be if she goes south and gets ripped up by Hispaniola or Cuba. But that would still kill hundreds

In honor of Nate Silver and Nate Cohn!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hurricane watches for Irma are now posted for the northern Leeward Islands.  It's still too early to tell whether the U.S. will be affected, but the forecasting models have been progressively moving further west.  This does increase the likelihood of a U.S. landfall, although it's still quite possible that the storm could recurve to the northeast and miss the U.S. entirely.

Some good resources:

National Hurricane Center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Weather Underground "Category 6" blog - https://www.wunderground.com/cat6.  Their last Irma post was https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-track-towards-lesser-antilles, but this was from yesterday morning.  A new post should be up later tonight.

Note: take the comments on Cat6 with a grain of salt.  They tend to overreact to every twitch in a model or report, much like daily tracking poll fluctuations around here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hurricane watches for Irma are now posted for the northern Leeward Islands.  It's still too early to tell whether the U.S. will be affected, but the forecasting models have been progressively moving further west.  This does increase the likelihood of a U.S. landfall, although it's still quite possible that the storm could recurve to the northeast and miss the U.S. entirely.

Some good resources:

National Hurricane Center - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Weather Underground "Category 6" blog - https://www.wunderground.com/cat6.  Their last Irma post was https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-track-towards-lesser-antilles, but this was from yesterday morning.  A new post should be up later tonight.

Note: take the comments on Cat6 with a grain of salt.  They tend to overreact to every twitch in a model or report, much like daily tracking poll fluctuations around here.

The various projections for Irma's path resonate badly with this article about Tampa's unpreparedness: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/

This is a disaster of epic proportion waiting to happen. Has the US ever been hit by two major hurricanes in the span of a single month before?

In September 2004, both Ivan and Jeanne.

In 2005, there were hurricanes in four consecutive months that hit the US and were at least Category 3 at their peak (although I'm not sure they all were at landfall):

July: Dennis
August: Katrina
September: Rita
October: Wilma

Major hurricane Emily also hit Mexico.  2005 was a crazy year.  They actually went through the whole list of Atlantic names and started using Greek letters (all the way to Zeta).  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Superbudgie (or other Florida members), is there a heightened awareness there for Irma preparations?  I'd guess that people might be more wary after Harvey.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hurricane watches for Irma are now posted for the northern Leeward Islands.  It's still too early to tell whether the U.S. will be affected,

I don't know about you, but I consider Puerto Rico and the USVI part of the U.S.  While it's still too early to be sure that the impact will be significant, at the very least they'll be getting rain out of Irma.

Fair point.  Please read "mainland U.S." instead in the quoted post.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Irma models are continuing to shift westward.  Hurricane watches are now up for Puerto Rico and the US & British Virgin Islands.  In the 11am EDT update, the NHC said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Irma is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds.  The forecast track has it heading toward the Florida Straits.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Irma is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds.  The forecast track has it heading toward the Florida Straits.

My parents live in Puerto Rico still. I'm so worried. This is a monster.

Hoping for the best for them, and all in the path of the storm.

[GeorgiaModerate]

By wind speed, Irma is now the 5th strongest Atlantic hurricane on record (and the second straight year with a Cat 5 after a pretty long drought)

We've also had a long drought of major hurricanes striking the continental U.S.  The last one before Harvey was Ike in September 2008.  Now it looks like we're about to have two within a month.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The 5pm update NHC update has shifted the forecast track to the west a bit.  If this holds up (and it may change again, knock on wood), this would be pretty much a worst-case scenario for southeast Florida.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here in north Georgia, Atlanta is under a Tropical Storm Warning for the first time ever (although I think they've only been doing inland tropical warnings since about 2000).  It's rainy, windy, and surprisingly cold (~55F).  Most schools and many businesses are closed.  There has been some wind damage reported in the city, but overall it hasn't been too bad so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NWS forecast has the storm coming straight through Tampa. Winds at 100, gusts at 125. There has been a major increase in the risk for the west coast of Florida in the last 24 hours.

People here are not prepared.

Stay safe.

Related: did anyone see that pic comparing Irma to Andrew? In-sane. All you FL posters, seriously, I hope you're taking precautions to be safe and/or evacuating. God speed.

If I were a Florida resident I might want to spend this autumn no further south than Interstate 70.

This is a crazily large storm.  As of the 11am update, tropical storm force winds extended for up to 415 miles from the center.

[GeorgiaModerate]

To illustrate how powerful and widespread the impact of Irma was, here in Atlanta -- which received a MUCH much lighter impact than Florida did -- there are still tens of thousands of people without power, and several of the area school systems are still closed (although the majority have reopened).

[GeorgiaModerate]

There seems to be considerable uncertainty in the models at this point.  It looks like landfall could be anywhere along the northern Gulf Coast.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very rare, but not unprecedented.  https://irishweatheronline.wordpress.com/2015/10/28/blast-from-the-past-hurricane-debbie-1961/