OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is the wrong thread for Michigan stuff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From DDHQ:

Danny O'Connor (Democratic)     61.5%   23,088
Troy Balderson (Republican)     37.7%   14,157
Joe Manchik (Green)     0.7%   278
15 of 591 (3%) Precincts Reporting, 37,523 Total Votes

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Everything on Twitter is either really good news for DOC, or slightly bad news for him.

Yeah, it's still very early, but atm I think the O'Connor camp is happier than Balderson's.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is anyone else having flashbacks to PA-18?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Balderson leads by over 1000. It's over.

We've heard you say "It's over" like fifteen times.

Well, it is.

Well, if you say it enough times, eventually you'll be right.

[GeorgiaModerate]

REMEMBER: Provisional ballots lean D and there pay be ~9000 of them says Michael McDonald.

If this is true, we might not have a winner tonight, depending on what happens in the remaining Delaware County precincts.

Response to McDonald:

https://twitter.com/JoeLenski/status/1027009289834164224

[GeorgiaModerate]

Franklin is basically done and Balderson's lead keeps increasing in Delaware. As basically everyone's said, Balderson will be leading by the end of tonight, but absentee provisional ballots could throw the election to O'Connor.

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to the Ohio SoS, there are 5000K absentees and 3500K provisionals. Absentees are probably going to break about even, so even if you want to be optimistic O'Connor could net 500 votes out of them at the very best. That means O'Connor would need to win 68% of provisional ballots to make up his deficit - but that's assuming all of them are counted, which is never the case with provisionals. If only half are counted, he would need to win 86% of those.

In other words: it's over. Still an indicator that the partisan climate favors Democrats, of course, but we knew it already and it wasn't the point of this election. The point was to reduce the number of seats needed to win from 23 to 22, and we failed at that. Not a huge blow, but still a setback.

Aren't you just a ray of sunshine.

He's completely correct.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1027305385944932356

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/midawson/status/1028016538476064770