2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Generic ballot is getting much wider again and polls are now regularly have Dems up 9-10%.

it is gonna crash

Why would that be?

told you lol

The average has gone from D+8.2 to D+8.3 since your crash prediction.  How exactly does this constitute a crash?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Time to post this again:

[GeorgiaModerate]

Time to post this again:

classic radical lib. rejecting the cold hard facts when they cant handle it

Know thyself.

I doubt that there are too many people around here who would call me a "radical lib".

[GeorgiaModerate]

Time to post this again:

classic radical lib. rejecting the cold hard facts when they cant handle it

Know thyself.

I doubt that there are too many people around here who would call me a "radical lib".

well, considering your using a meme from a show that actively supports communism, I am right to be suspicious

LOL

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democracy Corps (D), June 1-5, 1400 RV with a subsample of 518 in 12 "battleground states": AZ, CO, FL, GA, MI, MN, NV, NM, OH, PA, TN, WI

National:

D 51
R 42

Battleground states:

D 49
R 43

[GeorgiaModerate]

TN isn't a battleground state

I don't think NM is either, but those are the ones they picked.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Strictly speaking this isn't generic, but I'm not sure where else to put it:

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1007761557265186817

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1008763694967328768

[GeorgiaModerate]

DCCC internal polls:

https://twitter.com/CahnEmily/status/1009098292213534720

TX-7: Culbertson (R) 47, Fletcher (D) 45
PA-10: Perry (R) 45, Scott (D) 41
VA-10: Wexton (D) 46, Comstock (R) 43
NC-9: McCready (D) 44, Harris (R) 43
NY-22: Brindisi (D) 50, Tenney (R) 44
PA-1: Fitzpatrick (R) 48, Wallace (D) 46
NM-2: Herrell (R) 45, Torres Small (D) 45
NJ-3: Kim (D) 50, MacArthur (R) 44
CA-39: Kim (R) 45, Cisneros (D) 43
KY-6: McGrath (D) 52, Barr (R) 37

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos, June 14-18, 1615 RV

D 43 (-1)
R 35 (-1)

No net change.

[GeorgiaModerate]

No worries - once Gianforte piledrives a journalist, the Republicans will rally behind him

Do we get to pick the journalist?

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, June 17-19, 1272 registered voters

D 44 (+1)
R 37 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

In 2010, Republicans started running away in the Generic Ballot in July. I wonder if we're seeing something similar happen now.

The 538 average is still only D+7.8, which is in the ballpark of where it's been for the last couple of months (not counting the brief Ipsos-induced weirdness).  If it opens up to D+10 or so, then I'll think we may be seeing something similar.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN:

Democrats 50% (+3)
Republicans 42% (-2)

Source

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1009530602075361281

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to Pew, “Trump is turbocharging” voters on both sides.  Pew is predicting an election different than those in 2006, 2010, or 2014.  

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/20/poll-voter-enthusiasm-trump-655682

Gingrich is predicting a GOP wave

http://video.foxnews.com/v/5794479452001/?#sp=show-clips

Political events do not repeat exactly alike forever.

Please do not have a stroke or light your hair on fire.  Consider the possibility.  

Consider what happens if Russiagate fizzles and North Korea de-arming takes hold.

I think each of those has less than a 50% chance of happening, so the odds of both are even less.  But they're not implausible, so you're right that it's worth considering the possibility.

However, even if they both do happen, Trump is likely to continue shooting himself and the GOP in the foot with self-inflicted crises, unless there's a complete change in his temperament and style.  And that change is not plausible.

Also, Gingrich is not an unbiased observer, nor does he have a good track record at such predictions; he famously predicted the GOP would gain seats in 1998, right up to the night before the election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos, June 17-21, 1578 registered voters

D 43 (nc)
R 35 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

How soon will the generic polls switch to likely voters?

My guess would be around Labor Day.  But it's interesting as to what likely voter screens will look like this year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

How about taking the Russia discussion to another thread?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Note that this is Arizona only, NOT a national GCB poll:

Emerson, June 21-22, 650 registered voters

D 44
R 40

[GeorgiaModerate]

Only 5 points better than Hillary if true, which suggests a D+5 Generic...not enough for a majority.

NJ-11 is R+3, so it suggests a D+7 generic, if true.

Yeah, the D+4 is Bagel's speculation, not an actual result at this point.  But even if it's true, it's worth remembering that the national swing will NOT be uniform across all districts (I know this has been said a million times here, but people seem to ignore it when convenient) so the shift in a single district is not particularly representative of the national shift.  When you average a bunch of districts together it gives a better picture, but please don't extrapolate the whole country from a single district.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, June 22-24, 1989 registered voters

D: 44 (+2)
R: 37 (nc)