2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 12-16, 1268 RV

D 44 (-1)
R 35 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, April 10-13, 827 RV

D 44, R 39 -- Identical to their previous survey

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult, April 12-17, 1997 RV

D 43 (+1)
R 36 (nc)

YouGov, April 15-17, 1274 RV

D 43 (-1)
R 38 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qB-Me45ZfqcTuASx49bL4c2vVmTecwo4q-sCt_ASiqs/edit#gid=0 is a spreadsheet of data collected by Joel Wertheimer showing state-level GCB polls, with comparisons to Cook PVI and 2012/2016 presidential margins.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 15-19, 1260 RV

D 42 (-1)
R 36 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

So how many times has Atlas gone back and forth from apocolyptic to giddy over random generic ballot fluctuations in the past few months? 10? 20?

13, with a MOE of 3.4.

[GeorgiaModerate]

As Trump begins to dip in approval, Dems become much more complacent and will stop voting as a check on him. Anyone calling for a Blue Wave is staring at a foolish fantasy.

I would wait on line for 4 hours in a downpour or a blizzard to vote against Dear Leader's chosen candidate, and I know I'm not the only one.

After what happened in 2016, it's hard to imagine Democrats becoming complacent anytime soon.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Weren't we promised a poll from Nevada today?

where i do i get it?

Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports on Twitter) will probably have it very quickly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Unfortunately YouGov is at 5, so my model says the Blue Wave #narrative is over and the #metoo transgenderism Democrats will cause a 1,000 year GOP supermajority and also I will fail to seduce Genesis Rodriguez

For a moment there I thought my Ignore list had stopped working and this was from Lear.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac: Generic ballot D+8.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2538

Previous Q poll was D+3.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I dont know if anyone's seen but there's a McLaughlin & Associates poll (paid for by Breitbart) that has the generic ballot as tied.

http://mclaughlinonline.com/2018/04/24/april-2018-national-survey-results/

For posterity, I'm posting it here. But theres a reason 538 gives them a C-.

They're the pollster that was so bad the NRCC warned their candidates not to use McLaughlin.

And to make this even worse, Dick Morris was also involved in this poll, according to Harry Enten.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Cook Political: If Democrats Are Doing so Great, Why Don't They Have a Bigger Lead on Generic Ballot?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 22-26, 1891 RV

D 44 (+4)
R 33 (-2)
D+11 (+6)

The previous D+5 may have been an outlier, as the last before that were D+9 and D+10.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump won Wagner's seat by 10.... democrats only need to do 2.2 points better than Hillary in every seat to win. Obviously that's not exactly what's going to happen, but dems could easily get 50 seats before they get Wagner's seat. And R+3 could mean dems get Wagner's seat anyways.

Ofc, hofoid is just a troll so it doesn't matter what you respond. Democrats could gain 40 seats in November and he'd still say it's bad for the democrats. He will say dumb garbage no matter what.

bingo

Virginia, honest question here: what exactly is the mods' position on this kind of repetitive trollery? 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Virginia you have the patience of Job. You have my admiration and respect.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 26-30, 1977 RV

D 43 (-2)
R 35 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

More interesting numbers from Morning Consult.  GCB by district PVI range:

Safe D (PVI > D+10): D 55, R 21 (D+34)
Lean D (D+5 to D+10): D 45, R 29 (D+16)
Tossup (R+5 to D+5): D 39, R 35 (D+4)
Lean R (R+5 to R+10): R 39, D 36 (R+3)
Safe R (> R+10): R 45, D 30 (R+15)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Love live the chart:

Are we really less than 200 days away from Election Day? Man time flies so fast. However, I’m still not very concerned about the Democrats underperforming though. As long as too many challengers, or none at all preferably, don’t do anything dumb that could blow tight races away I’m confident in their chances.

186 as of today.  Sunday will be six months exactly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Poll of the new PA-07: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-nws-pennsylvania-congress-pa7-poll-20180504-story.html

Conducted May 3, 408 RV

Morganelli +18 over Nothstein, +15 over Browning.

Democrats +11 on the generic ballot.

53% disapprove of Trump.

The link to the pdf to the full results is not functioning at the moment.

Doesn't match up well with the Generic Ballot . Too Dem-friendly.

Here’s a crazy suggestion - what if one took GCB polls, district polls, state polls, fundraising, recruiting and recent election results and viewed the picture comprehensively rather than cherry picking data that confirms your priors and then trolling the board about how you’re right and everybody else is wrong?

What a radical idea!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Reuters has the generic ballot at Dems +5 AA and Dems +6 RV.


https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/reuters-ipsos-data-core-political-2018-05-04

It's worth noting that Reuters included a comment that they think it's an outlier:

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The party distribution looks R-heavy:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult, May 3-7, 1992 RV

D 42 (-1)
R 35 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, May 6-8,  1232 RV

D 44 (+2)
R 35 (-4)

In the same poll, Trump approval went from -9 to -8 among RV, and from -10 to -3 among all adults.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why we go by the average. If dems are up 7 right now, a poll showing +3 is within that range.

Exactly.  It's normal for there to be some noise and variance among polls; it's suspicious when there isn't much.

It's interesting(?) that in the 538 average, the D average has been quite stable for the last few weeks, but the R number has been rather noisy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is adjacent to Limo's CNN poll thread.  Why haven't they mutually annihilated each other like matter and antimatter?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I agree that PPP is garbage that gets a free pass on this site because of their left leaning bias, but the notion of ‘Roy Moore +27’ calling out anyone is kind of ridiculous.

PPP's polls are quite good.  538's database gives them a B+ rating with a bias of R+0.2.  Yes, their owner is a liberal.  So what?  Fox News is conservative, but their polls are good too.  Results are what's important.