2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, June 24-26, 1278 registered voters.

D: 43 (-1)
R: 38 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, June 24-28, 1810 registered voters

D 45 (+4)
R 35 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, June 24-28, 1810 registered voters

D 45 (+4)
R 35 (-2)

Wow

This poll tends to be rather noisy.  Don't get too excited unless it stays that way for a few cycles.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Colorado only (not a national GCB poll): PPP, June 27-28, 608 registered voters

D: 45
R: 40

[GeorgiaModerate]

Colorado only (not a national GCB poll): PPP, June 27-28, 608 registered voters

D: 45
R: 40

Colorado to the right of Arizona.

That's also true on the map!  Colorado is to the right of Arizona, and also...higher.

(I'll get my coat.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Colorado only (not a national GCB poll): PPP, June 27-28, 608 registered voters

D: 45
R: 40

Enough to boot Coffman in November?

Enough to make him sweat, at a minimum.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

For comparison, their previous poll (June 14-17) was D 49, R 43.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

For comparison, their previous poll (June 14-17) was D 49, R 43.

Should also note that that they switched the question from who do you want to see control the Congress, to who you will vote for.

Oh, good catch.  I've always wondered how much difference (if any) that wording made.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some of these splits are nuts:

Men R+8
Women D+25

Whites with College Degree D+13
Whites with no College Degree R+14

Whites D/R+0
Blacks D+67
Hispanics D+25

Independents D+14

18-34 D+26
35-49 D+5
50-64 D+4
65+ D+11

That is unexpected

I know a number of people in my age group (60's) whose politics have moved at least a little to the left in recent years (although some of them were pretty far right to start with).  I suspect that this is because many of them are either on Social Security/Medicare or about to be, or have someone close to them who is. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've always wondered: what's wrong with asking the respondent how likely they are to vote on the 5-point scale?  If the result is 5, they're likely; if less than 4, they're not; exactly 4 I could go either way on (maybe then you include other factors).  I think PPP does something like this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos

Democrats: 45%
Republicans: 35%

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180301-20180628/collapsed/true

I posted that one on Friday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the MC poll:

Morning Consult/Politico, June 28-29, 1990 RV

D 43 (-1), R 35 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, July 1-3, 1259 registered voters

D 42 (-1)
R 38 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The 538 GCB average is now at D+8.4 (46.8-38.4), which is the largest gap since early April, when it was 8.6 for a few days.

[GeorgiaModerate]

"tHe MaNUfacTurEd ImMigrAnT SepArAtIOn sToRy HurT thE DEmoCraTs!"

  -Fox News, Newsweek, Breitbart, Daily Caller, etc. etc.

They're manufacturing immigrants now?  Isn't this how the Clone Wars started?

[GeorgiaModerate]

"tHe MaNUfacTurEd ImMigrAnT SepArAtIOn sToRy HurT thE DEmoCraTs!"

  -Fox News, Newsweek, Breitbart, Daily Caller, etc. etc.

They're manufacturing immigrants now?  Isn't this how the Clone Wars started?

You know what I mean.

I know, I just have a weakness for wordplay.

[GeorgiaModerate]

UT-02: Salt Lake Tribune, June 11-18, 147 (lol) registered voters

Stewart (R) 48
Ghobani (D) 24
Others 14  (presumably UUP candidate)

[GeorgiaModerate]

UT-02: Salt Lake Tribune, June 11-18, 147 (lol) registered voters

Stewart (R) 48
Ghobani (D) 24
Others 14  (presumably UUP candidate)

Lol why even bother polling this district

Why bother polling anything if you're only polling 147 people?

And it took a week to poll the 147!  They probably had one person working on it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Did they provide an explanation for moving NY-25 to the GOP?

Yes, see https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-ratings-changes-10-districts-move-mostly-democrats-direction:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos, July 5-9, 1312 registered voters

D: 46 (+3)
R: 34 (-2)

The 538 average is now at D+8.9 (47.9-39.0), which is the largest gap since mid-March.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NC-09 (Civitas): McCready +7

https://twitter.com/jimmorrill/status/1016802651705659392

Whoa!

Civitas... that’s a NC firm, right?

Yes.  They're a nonprofit that calls themselves "North Carolina's Conservative Voice."  https://www.nccivitas.org/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's that Civitas NC-09 poll: https://www.nccivitas.org/2018/civitas-poll-mccready-leads-nc-09-jobs-economy-top-election-issues/

McCready (D) 43
Harris (R) 36
Scott (L) 3

July 5-8, 543 likely voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another NC-09 poll by SUSA:

McReady (DEM): 43
Harris (GOP): 36

Trump:
Approve: 43
Disapprove: 49

That looks like the Civitas poll.

It is the same poll.  Survey USA conducted it for Civitas.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1017153866633277441

GOP holding their internals close to their chests. Wonder why?

I loved this comment:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult went from D+8 to D+5
YouGov went from D+4 to D+4
Rasmussen went from D+6 to D+8

An net overall tightening. Perhaps, Dems will start seeing the backlash to wanting to abolish ICE.

About a .3 tightening.

Dems in disarray...

For some reason, he left Ipsos (which went from D+7 to D+12) off that list.  Gosh, I wonder why.