Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kemp would be an absolute idiot to sign this abortion bill. It's just gonna get struck down in court and he's walking a fine line no matter what. He has no room for a big unforced error if he wants to win again and this just might be that. Especially if some movie/tv productions pull out because of it.

Hasn't Kemp previously said that he'll sign it?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Jon Ossoff eyeing a Senate run (if Abrams doesn't).

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/ossoff-sharpens-populist-message-with-pledge-end-broken-college-debt-system/UpTyUMmhxMvHp0y0wRm2RM/

[GeorgiaModerate]

McBath turned down a $2k contribution from Ilhan Omar:

Up in D.C., the conservative Free Beacon has pointed to a $2,000 campaign contribution that U.S. Rep. Illhan Omar, D-Minn., reported making to fellow freshman Democrat Lucy McBath of Marietta.The website noted that McBath did not report the contribution – which is true. The McBath campaign told us this morning that the contribution was not accepted.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-peachtree-city-ordinance-would-permit-libel-suits-against-critics/K4Xt15TUWCG9MaUAr5FmCN/

This is probably a smart move.  The district has a substantial Jewish population.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JeffreyCook/status/1121846495857168385

*screams* It's coming!

This doesn't sound like the kind of thing that would happen if she were in fact running. I think she's out. But I'm fine with that since Tomlinson seems competent and who knows, she might be a slightly better bet than Abrams at this point since people in the state seem to feel so strongly about Abrams one way or another.

I mean, it is not like there will be broad swaths of anti-Abrams voters who will vote for a different dem.

In a state like GA 1% could make all the difference between a win and loss

Maybe, but the way more important group is low-propensity minorities, which Abrams has a unique ability to turn out. THAT group is much more likely to make or break this election.

More likely, the two factors will cancel each other out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It looks like the GA Supreme Court is currently 8R/1D?

How did that happen ?

While it's an elected position, 8 of the 9 were originally appointed by governors to fill vacancies or newly created seats (the court was increased from 7 to 9 a few years ago).  7 of them were appointed by Republicans (2 by Perdue, 5 by Deal).  One (Benham) was appointed by a Democratic governor (Harris), and the ninth (Ellington) was elected in 2018 without having been previously appointed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It looks like the GA Supreme Court is currently 8R/1D?

How did that happen ?

While it's an elected position, 8 of the 9 were originally appointed by governors to fill vacancies or newly created seats (the court was increased from 7 to 9 a few years ago).  7 of them were appointed by Republicans (2 by Perdue, 5 by Deal).  One (Benham) was appointed by a Democratic governor (Harris), and the ninth (Ellington) was elected in 2018 without having been previously appointed.

Hmmm... is Ellington known as a judicial conservative?

I don't know that much about his judicial record, but he tried to embrace bipartisanship during the campaign and was endorsed by leaders from both parties:

Appointed to the state Court of Appeals in 1999 by Gov. Roy Barnes, Ellington now has the endorsement of Governor Deal, too. House Speaker David Ralston, R-Blue Ridge, has given Ellington his blessing, as has state Rep. Bob Trammell of Luthersville, leader of the House Democratic caucus.Ellington employs a Republican political sherpa, who is also currently working for Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle. And yet, he’s also been endorsed by DeKalb County CEO Michael Thurmond.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/how-john-ellington-intends-escape-georgia-political-tribalism/PcBwlRlsqpYjWs1YnGZcbP/

The whole article is quite good.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia will be a swing state in the 2020s and 2030s but it will be more like Florida, Leanish R.

Also, both Abrams and Kemp were unappealing candidates.

Kemp is a bland white male, Abrams is a loose cannon.

Cagle would have beaten Abrams by 5 points.

If Democrats were so concerned about "voting rights", Barrow would have won the December runoff, but they stayed home.

A few points I would make:

1) The last statewide runoff of importance, 2008's Senate race between Chambliss and Martin, Dems also stayed home - that turned a 1-point race into a 15-point blowout for Chambliss. Here, voters also stayed home - that turned a 1-point race into...a 2-point race. Even with insanely low turnout Raffensperger and Eaton barely won their runoffs. In the runoffs, Miller and Barrow actually did better than Abrams in parts of Metro Atlanta. That's not exactly comforting for the GOP; runoffs are no longer slam dunks.

2) Obviously Abrams/Kemp gets the most coverage and views, but most other Republicans didn't do that much better last fall: the Attorney General race had a Generic R vs. Generic D, but that was also a narrow win for Carr. PSC D3 was also largely Generic R vs. Generic D, that went to a runoff. Lt. Gov., while not quite Generic R vs. Generic D, didn't see much improvement from the gubernatorial results for Geoff Duncan. Pridemore barely avoided a runoff in PSC D5, again not a high-profile race.

The lone standouts were popular Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black and State School Superintendent Richard Woods, who only romped to 6-point victories, hardly landslides. Even in a bad or close-run year for a party, some of their statewide officials will still win sizable victories: the same year Mike Taylor was getting smashed by Sonny Purdue in his 2006 reelection bid for governor, Thurbert Baker, Michael Thurmond, and Tommy Irvin all won their statewide races with 10- to 20-point landslides.

3) There wouldn't be anything to sustain a long 20-year period of Florida-style Lean R politics in Georgia. Florida has two things Georgia doesn't have: a sustained inflow of conservative retirees and a more Republican-leaning Latino voting block. Those two trends combined with the typical rural Dem collapse we see elsewhere in the South mean that the pro-Dem trends among young people and suburbanites are cancelled out, leaving Florida in an R-tilting state. The incompetence of the FDP doesn't help matters.

Georgia has none of those things: while there are conservative retirees, they have only a fraction of the clout and influence Florida's have. Peachtree City is not The Villages. Latinos in this state vote more in line with those in the Southwest, not Florida. Finally, while the Georgia Dems have definitely had their low points, they aren't even in the same universe as the FDP in terms of incompetence.

Nice analysis.  I have been very impressed with your posts so far.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This is still fresh and news is still coming in but the insurance commissioner, Jim Beck, just got indicted on 38 counts. I’m so shocked that a r figure in the state is corrupt, so shocked.

What did he do this time ?

Ironically enough...insurance fraud.  Along with theft and money laundering.

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/crime/fraud-theft-and-money-laundering-ga-insurance-commissioner-charged-in-2m-scheme/85-beb0852b-ad22-41e9-a0b0-d07c354b5972

[GeorgiaModerate]

Beck turned himself in this morning and will be arraigned this afternoon.  Another tidbit on the possible replacement process:

Under state law, the governor can appoint a panel to decide whether Beck should be suspended, but Gov. Brian Kemp has so far not said whether he’ll do that. He has two weeks to make the decision.

https://www.ajc.com/news/local/breaking-georgia-insurance-commissioner-jim-beck-surrenders-feds/qvaA0XZ6EqFgE0bTBJZHhK/