Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lowndes - new registrant college students at Valdosta St. (Historically black college)? Sounds very promising.

Valdosta State isn't a historically black college.  It is a large university, though, with about 11K students.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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18-29 is higher than 30-39.  How does that compare to past turnout?

(And thanks for posting these updates!)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1051523896766279680

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PoliticallyGa/status/1051873595872432128

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gov. Deal extends the voter registration deadline to tomorrow for four counties (Clay, Grady, Randolph and Turner) that were hit hard by Hurricane Michael.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It wouldn't be a Georgia election w/o Fulton County screwing everything up and having "computer issues"

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The entire department needs to be canned.

Why can’t there just be paper ballots rather than incredibly insecure and glitchy machines? Oh right, it’s Georgia. They might actually be the worst state at running elections in the union, and that takes effort.

Paper ballots are on the way for 2020.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1051915600195407874

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's only one early voting location open at present in Gwinnett, right?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Black senior citizens ordered off Georgia bus taking them to vote

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ben_brasch/status/1052571889762295810

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just got polled AGAIN, this time mostly about the AG race (several questions about each of the candidates), but they also asked Trump favorability and the governor race.  It was a live caller poll and the phone number ID'ed as SEEL, LLC with a 313 area code.  Google says there is a company by that name in Detroit, but it's an "energy efficiency solutions" company.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Freedom policy! I wish Dems would put that into law in the States they control.

Except, perhaps, they should only get the $ off if they actually vote.

More generally, perhaps all voters in general should receive a tax credit for voting, as a way to increase turnout. Although the 24th amendment prohibits poll taxes, it does not prohibit poll tax credits. Of course, if voters wanted to, they could always cast a blank ballot, and can vote for whoever they want. But give the people an incentive to vote and raise voter turnout.

Other benefits are already conferred on voters, though generally of a smaller nature. A simple example is giving voters a sticker for voting - a sticker is not worth much, but it is not nothing. It is a small benefit, but nonetheless is a benefit and establishes a precedent of giving voters a benefit for voting.

Seems like a good policy to me.

Instead of an "I voted" sticker, give every voter a lottery ticket.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Griff, is it possible to break down the EV share by both race and age?  Well, I'm sure it's possible, just a question of whether you or anyone wants to do the work.  For example:

White 65+
White 50-64
...
White 18-29
Black 65+
Black 50-64
...

It seems possible that the relative increase of whites in the last few days isn't necessary favorable for Republicans, depending on its age distribution.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Saw my first Abrams sign in Forsyth County this morning (first one in the county, I've seen others elsewhere.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Flag burning is a notoriously difficult topic for both parties to talk about since it really serves as a wedge issue for both of them - I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't take hold.

True, but there's a world of difference between burning the U.S. flag and burning a state flag (one that included the Confederate battle flag).  People aren't that emotionally connected to their state flags in most states; there are probably a few exceptions, like Texas.  I doubt that many Georgians could even describe our current state flag.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC article on the debate: https://www.ajc.com/news/stacey-abrams-brian-kemp-debate-tonight/h5hAHuiFtUPlEOR66cK0HN/.

Here's a tidbit about Abrams that I didn't know:

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[GeorgiaModerate]

How's early vote canvassing look in your region?

Great! We've been knocking non-stop for weeks.

According to VoteBuilder here in Newton County, the vote breakdown among Likely Party so far is:

41% Strong/Likely Democratic
35% Strong/Likely Republican
18% No Data (no primary history)
3% Unknown (not enough primary history to make a strong conclusion)
2% Independent (more or less equal participation in D and R primaries)

My hope is that Abrams is cleaning up with those with No Data as those are the voters she has been specifically targeting.

How does that breakdown compare to previous elections?

[GeorgiaModerate]

A debate coach's detailed review of last night's debate (verdict: narrow Abrams win)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ariberman/status/1055160572361236480?s=21

Court dealt Kemp a loss just now

Uh, that seems like a perfectly valid reason to reject a ballot?

What will happen (at least this is the proposed solution, I don't think it's final yet) is that the ballots with mismatched signatures will be treated as provisional and the voters notified.  They will have up to 7 days after the election to verify their identity/residence, as is done with provisional ballots cast at the polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1055209604525842452

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ariberman/status/1055160572361236480?s=21

Court dealt Kemp a loss just now

Uh, that seems like a perfectly valid reason to reject a ballot?

What will happen (at least this is the proposed solution, I don't think it's final yet) is that the ballots with mismatched signatures will be treated as provisional and the voters notified.  They will have up to 7 days after the election to verify their identity/residence, as is done with provisional ballots cast at the polls.

The proposed solution has been made official by the judge.  Slight correction to my earlier post: the deadline is the Monday after the election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Question for you all that should probably go in the Congressional Elections board, but since the Georgia megathread is here - what's your take on how competitive GA-07 is right now? Is Woodall running a solid campaign?

I'd call it Lean R at this point.  Although Woodall is still the favorite, I think it's possible that the Abrams turnout operation will bring out enough Democrats in Gwinnett County to push Bourdeaux over the top.

[GeorgiaModerate]

JFC, you have the possibility of sending the first female black governor in the country. How is the black vote only 29%?!

I believe that's very close to the percentage of black voters among all RV.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1055586189082873861

[GeorgiaModerate]

Stacey was stumping with Cecile Richards in Carroll County.

What a time to be alive.

She's appearing here in Forsyth County tomorrow morning.  That's quite something given the county's history (obviously, it's changed a great deal in recent decades).