ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[BudgieForce]

Campbell internal has him up 3 on Heitkmamp, but Atlas told me this race was likely D

lol

[BudgieForce]

You guys are laughing, but there are Democratic candidates like Lucas St. Clair in ME-02 who release internals showing themselves behind against supposedly far less popular incumbents than Heitkamp.

Thats fine, but an internal from a no name pollster without a website does not mean ND isnt lean D. It isnt a toss-up either. We dont know what it is because we havent gotten any decent polls yet.

[BudgieForce]

You'd all have a better time on this forum if you just put Limoliberal on super ignore like the rest of us. His posts don't even show up for me anymore. I only see them because of the quoting.

[BudgieForce]

You'd all have a better time on this forum if you just put Limoliberal on super ignore like the rest of us. His posts don't even show up for me anymore. I only see them because of the quoting.

I'm thinking about it greatly right about now.

It looks like he's gone from concern troll to Krazen. Really frustrating.

[BudgieForce]

So something I just learned, North Dakota has the third largest Soy Crop in the United States. Guess which industry is getting hammered by Trump's tariffs? I think Heidi has an opening.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-04/china-tariffs-could-wreck-republicans-in-november

[BudgieForce]

Inside Elections moved ND from Toss-up to Tilt R, meaning that ND is more likely to flip than NV or AZ according to them. And I thought Charlie Cook's Senate ratings were bad.

I could see the argument if we had more polling, however North Dakota's built in republican bias isnt enough for me to agree with it being tilt-R, not yet anyway.

[BudgieForce]

Obviously the line of attack will be SCOTUS, with the aim being twofold: 1. To create a wedge issue where Cramer can demonstrate he will be much more dependable to conservatives on, and 2. To pressure Heitkamp to vote for the nominee. If she does, she will depress her base a bit but appease swing voters, if she doesn’t, she honestly probably just loses. The obsession of this forum on nonsense buzzwords like ‘retail politics’ is bizarre. She’s a strong politician who is going to have a tightrope to wall across, just like the other deep red state Democrats (and arguably a tougher path than any other senator - at least Montana and Missouri and Indiana were 20 point losses with some down ballot Dem support, while WV is historically Democratic. Meanwhile, ND was a 36 point loss in 2016 and has a much weaker Democratic tradition than WV...).

Lean R, toss up if Heitkamp votes for the nominee in a non controversial fashion (aka the nominee would be confirmed anyway).

We "obsess" over retail politics because thats how Heitkamp won in 2012 even with Romney at the top of the ticket. This race should arguably be easier for her since there's no Republican presidential candidate running on the same ballot.

[BudgieForce]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=302835.0

[BudgieForce]

So this race is now Likely R.

Until we get another poll saying otherwise, probably.

[BudgieForce]

Better to go down doing what you think is right than flailing about like the blue dogs did in 2010/2014.

[BudgieForce]

If Heitkamp loses and democrats win in 2020, I expect her to be at the top of the list for a cabinet position.

[BudgieForce]

That seems dumb on North Dakota republicans part. Wouldnt the oil workers that have flooded the state also have an issue with this?

[BudgieForce]

Oh yeah.. that partisan 6-2 (out of SCOTUS vote. lol

We dont actually know how the voting went apparently. Only that RBG wrote the dissent and Kagan joined in.

Apparently the result only needed to be 4-4 to send the case back down to the lower court.

[BudgieForce]

I'm just going by what "legal experts" on twitter tell me.