Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[BudgieForce]

Trump is up to 45 in rasmussen, which for the last few weeks was fairly in line with gallup. Now they are diverging again.

It seems like gallup and rassy are both prone to random streaks of significant swings, and then subsequent strings of relative stability, but that different times.

Gallup and Rasmussen arent great pollsters. Gallup is slightly better than Rasmussen, but theres a reason they didnt poll the 2016 race and thats because of how badly they did in previous cycles. Like I've said before, its best to average tracking polls by week and not pay attention to the day to day movement.

[BudgieForce]

Trump is up to 45 in rasmussen, which for the last few weeks was fairly in line with gallup. Now they are diverging again.

It seems like gallup and rassy are both prone to random streaks of significant swings, and then subsequent strings of relative stability, but that different times.

Gallup and Rasmussen arent great pollsters. Gallup is slightly better than Rasmussen, but theres a reason they didnt poll the 2016 race and thats because of how badly they did in previous cycles. Like I've said before, its best to average tracking polls by week and not pay attention to the day to day movement.

Are they bad(ish) pollsters because of the nature of daily tracking?

Rasmussen was among the most inaccurate pollsters in 2012. Not only was Rasmussen's national polls(which I believe was a tracking poll) majorly off but there state polls were even worse. Gallup was off by the same amount nationally as Rasmussen in 2012, but they didnt do state polling which means they didnt get the same amount of heat. My point though, Rasmussen was majorly off in EVERY swing state poll:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/wi/wisconsin_romney_vs_obama-1871.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

[BudgieForce]

And of course, guess which poll is all over the news today? Rasmussen.

And Rasmussen will be completely ignored again when they show Trump under 40% in a week.

[BudgieForce]

And there goes Rasmussen:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history
Rasmussen Daily Tracking
Approve - 43%(-2)
Disapprove - 55%(+2)

[BudgieForce]

In two days it will be the same nothing strange

Thats not the point. Trump's approvals stay steady, drop, slightly recover then stay steady again. He was averaging low 40s in Gallup a couple of months ago, now he's averaging mid to high 30s.

[BudgieForce]

By god.... The House election is gonna be a bloodbath.

Unfortunately not. The House is so gerrymandered that at best the Democrats barely regain nominal control of the House.

If it's at 34% now, imagine how low it will be in by the midterms, especially if the Government shuts down over wall funding.

Your approval will return to normal in a week, do not let your fantasies cloud your mind

Normal is 37%, @bruhgmger2 is right.

[BudgieForce]

Monmouth:

Approve 41% (+2)
Disapprove 49% (-3)

Booooo

[BudgieForce]

Quinnipiac, Aug 9-15, 1361 RV (change from Aug 2)

Approve 39 (+6)
Disapprove 57 (-4)

Oh dear.

Their last poll was an outlier, this is more in line with other pollsters.

[BudgieForce]

We are getting close to Trump's floor. Without a recession or war, Trump is probably stuck in mid to high 30s.

[BudgieForce]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, so far we're not seeing this at all.

While its to early to discount this tweet, Dworkin should usually be taken with a grain of salt.

[BudgieForce]

It seems like the incident in Charlottesville is rallying Republicans around the president.  They seem to do so whenever they feel the media is besieging him.

We've seen no evidence of that either.

[BudgieForce]

At this point, his real approval is probably more like 45%-50%. When it comes to issues where liberals try to "shame" the racism, people will obviously start lying to pollsters. I don't believe a single person outside the coastal establishment "turned on" Trump in the last week. Heck, I oppose Trump and thought his comments were fine.

I assume this is just conjecture because there is 0 proof Trump's approval rating is being underestimated. In fact, it sounds abit paranoid. Liberals are not lying in order to lower Trump's approval ratings. That theory sounds straight from info wars.

[BudgieForce]

At this point, his real approval is probably more like 45%-50%. When it comes to issues where liberals try to "shame" the racism, people will obviously start lying to pollsters. I don't believe a single person outside the coastal establishment "turned on" Trump in the last week. Heck, I oppose Trump and thought his comments were fine.

I assume this is just conjecture because there is 0 proof Trump's approval rating is being underestimated. In fact, it sounds abit paranoid. Liberals are not lying in order to lower Trump's approval ratings. That theory sounds straight from info wars.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=55

National polls, just like these national approval ratings, were pretty accurate. Wisconsin's polling failure does not equate to liberals lying.


Again, these seem like arguments taken directly off of right wing twitter.

[BudgieForce]

Trump falls to new low of 25 percent approval rate in California poll

I don't see how he possibly wins the PV in 2020 with approvals like that.

I wish California secession would gain more traction. When will Californians realize the rest of the country hates them and they have no real representation.

Dafuq?

I think Beet is day drinking

Trump is popular and people are lying to pollsters. California doesn't count. Right wing Twitter is actually correct about this.

I thought only level headed people could become mods.

[BudgieForce]

Why should we care about what California thinks? It's a crappy, state, it screws over poor people, and it's given us the worst of Silicon Valley.

Are you okay?

[BudgieForce]

AmericanResearchGroup national poll
Trump Job Approval:
Approve - 33%
Disapprove - 62%


http://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/

[BudgieForce]

Fun fact- in January 1983, Ronald Reagan's approval rating was 35%. He went on to come within 10,000 votes of winning every single electoral vote.

Difference is, Reagan was popular before he got unpopular. Trump has never been popular.

[BudgieForce]

http://wvmetronews.com/2017/08/31/justice-trump-capito-and-manchin-metronews-west-virginia-poll-evaluates-approval/

West Virginia approval ratings:

Trump 48/39
Manchin 51/34
Capito 40/38
Justice 34/44 (lol)  

[BudgieForce]

Im not sure how many times I need to post this but you should never read too much into the daily fluctuations of a tracking poll. They are prone to wild jumps for no reason.

[BudgieForce]

Im not sure how many times I need to post this but you should never read too much into the daily fluctuations of a tracking poll. They are prone to wild jumps for no reason.

Well at least you gave me a good laugh.

Gosh darn it, how am I supposed to ignore Daniel if you quote him.

[BudgieForce]

Something is telling me the gallup numbers were artificially low and this is just a correction.

[BudgieForce]

going from -27 to -18 is not exactly "noise"

He is probably rising a tiny bit from a combination of a solid governmental response to the houston flooding and avoiding controversy over the last few days.

The Irma storm that will hit Florida is going to be a huge story for the next few days. Will take more airtime off of russia stuff and other negatives.

He may get to like 40-55 or 41-54 but not much better than that.

We'll see. Huge movement in tracking is generally noise though.

[BudgieForce]

Trump is at 36% in the new NBC poll while Hillary is at 30%. So there is a chance that Trump faces a deeply unpopular Dem candidate in 2020 (like Hillary) & wins.

It is possible for a Dem candidate to have worse approvals than Trump.

Thats slightly misleading. While Hillary's approval rating is at 30%, her neutral rating is at 17%. Also, Sander's +14, while great, is down quite abit from his +32 a year ago. 

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/TODAY/z_Creative/17312%20NBCWSJ%202017%20Social%20Trends%20Poll%20(9-6-17%20Release).pdf

[BudgieForce]

Rasmussen is a trash pollster but it his worth noting he has been tanking recently.

Approve: 42% (-2)
Disapprove: 56% (+2)

Strongly Approve: 26% (-)
Strongly Disapprove: 45% (+2)

Tanking is a strong word. He was up to 45% a couple of days ago. I'd say it's just flucuation more than anything else.

[BudgieForce]

No news is good news for the Trump administration. Although I'm sure his UN speech or the revived healthcare push wont do him any favors.