AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[BudgieForce]

I have a really hard time seeing Flake win if Sinema is the nominee and she runs a decent campaign and tries to ignore her religion. I can see it being used against her in ads in the more conservative part of the state.

"There is no god!"

Kay Hagan was a sunday school teacher so Elizabeth Doles attack ad seemed liked a desperate lie. Sinema is an open non-theist though so I dont know how a similar attack ad would play in Arizona.

[BudgieForce]

Outside the box question for people more in the know than me: if Ward beats Flake in the primary, is there any chance Flake pulls a Murkowski and runs in the general anyways as an Indy? Are there sore loser ballot restrictions in AZ that would prevent it?

Murkowski didn't run as an independent though, she ran as a write-in. There is a spot for a write-in on the Arizona ballot but I doubt Flake would be anywhere near as successful. He'd split the republican vote which would allow Sinema to win easily, especially since the democratic party is much stronger in Arizona than it is in Alaska.

[BudgieForce]

Martha McSally would be an obvious choice... but then that house race shifts more D.

Good luck to her winning a primary though

She is waiting for McCain to retire and call upon her to be his successor.

This is good news for Republicans since someone else is naturally going to hop in the race. This person will not be a conspiracy theorist and not be the most unpopular senator in the country, so they already start out better then either past candidate. Sinema's chances go down now that she probably won't be facing such a horrible opponent.

Your assuming Ward loses if shes not facing Flake. I dont think she loses to any establishment GOP.

[BudgieForce]

This is very clearly good for the Republicans. Flake was going to lose his primary and Ward was going to get Mourdock'd.

Now, any of McSally, Gosar, Schweikert, or Franks can jump in and handle a joke candidate like Ward.

Ward is stronger in the primary than you think. 

[BudgieForce]

Martha McSally would be an obvious choice... but then that house race shifts more D.

Good luck to her winning a primary though

She is waiting for McCain to retire and call upon her to be his successor.

This is good news for Republicans since someone else is naturally going to hop in the race. This person will not be a conspiracy theorist and not be the most unpopular senator in the country, so they already start out better then either past candidate. Sinema's chances go down now that she probably won't be facing such a horrible opponent.

Your assuming Ward loses if shes not facing Flake. I dont think she loses to any establishment GOP.

It doesn't need to be an establishment, chances are it will be someone more to the right like Brewer or Schweikert. Wards support was always built upon two things: Trump support and Anti-Washingtonism. With flake out, she no longer can run against "Washington Insiders." A challenger closer to Trump will easily obtain his support, since Ward's support for the White House was built on her simply not being Flake/McCain. The only way Ward wins in a hypothetical primary is if she has built enough of a brand in these early months that she has enough momentum to carry her into the general election.

I mean, she did just run against McCain.

[BudgieForce]

Flake's retirement also kills Ward's chances. She is no Roy Moore, who had built deep support among GOP voters in his state over the years. In AZ, an establishment R with Trump's support will easily beat Ward.

Arizona is more GOP Establishment friendly than Alabama, yes. People want Trumpism though.

Ward can win with Trump's support - I am interested at seeing what Trump does now.

I highly highly doubt Trump will support Ward. He has already been in discussions with establishment Rs like Jeff Dewit.

He's tweeted positive things about her.

[BudgieForce]

In all likelihood, whether this is good or bad for the GOP, or DeWit runs, I think this seat will go to Sinema. It's going to be an anti-Trump midterm.

You have no way of knowing what the sentiment will be a year from now. Too many variables. Sinema is the strongest Dem candidate in years, of course, but even now, she was, with the little data we have, running in a statistical tie with WARD.

A variable that won't change: An open seat in a swing state during a midterm with an unpopular incumbent.