How long until we know the winner tomorrow?

[Erc]

If all goes Bush's way, we could know by 9:05, with Texas pushing him over the top.

Of course, in that event, we'd sort of already know the results when OH & FL came in.

[Erc]

The only comparable election is 2000, and that's not a good precedent.

I guess you could compare it 2002, which I followed relatively closely...but it's been so long I don't really remember it that well.


In 2000 they called it for Bush at 2:15 am or so.

[Erc]

StatesRights...I'm assuming from your avatar that you're in EST...Indiana and Kentucky will be called at 7:00, as their polls finish at 6:00 for both timezones--so 7 / 6c.  In 2000 they were called at about 6:50.


If Bush is above 60 in Indiana, though, we'll have a pretty dead-on indicator that Bush will win.

[Erc]

General outline of Election Night:  (again, if states are much closer than expected you can move out the declarations in time a bit)

7:00 Sharp:  (or a couple minutes before)

Indiana, Kentucky called for Bush

7-7:10:  SC, Georgia called for Bush, VT called for Kerry  [VA too close to call, New Hampshire either Too Close to Call or all polls not closed]

7:15-7:25:  VA called for Bush

7:30:  OH, WV too close to call.  NC either too close to call or all polls not closed

8:00:  MA, CT, ME (3/4), IL, MD, DC, DE called for Kerry.  OK, AL, MS called for Bush.  NH, TN, MO, MI, NJ, PA, FL, MECD2 called too close to call.  Polls not closed yet in MI.

8-8:30:  FL called for whoever wins it.  NJ, MI called for Kerry.  TN, MO, WV called for Bush.

8:30:  NC called for Bush.  AR called too close to call.

8:30-9:00:  PA, NH, MECD2 called for the victor.  AR called for Bush.

9:00:  CO, LA, MN, WI, NM, AZ, MI too close to call.  NY and RI called for Kerry. KS, NE, SD, TX, WY

9-9:30:  CO, LA, AZ called for Bush.  MI called for Kerry.

9:30-10:00:  Presumable dead hour.  States not yet called may get called, some states if larger margins than expected (MN/WI/OH) may get called here:

10:00:  UT, MT called for Bush.  NV, IA called too close to call.

10-11:  IA, NV, WI, MN, OH called for their respective winners.  Unless we're waiting on HI, the show's over.

11:00:  ID, ND called for Bush.  CA called for Kerry.  HI, WA, OR too close to call.

11-12:  WA, OR called for Kerry

12:  HI called, AK called for Bush.

[Erc]

Indianometer:

Bush <57  --loss

Bush >60  --win

[Erc]

True...but expect IN & KY to be called at 7 on the dot.  It'll take a couple more minutes for the other states to make it.