The Top 10 Best-Funded House Challengers

[Erc]

Although I'm glad to see a well-funded serious challenge to John Hall (I hate the guy, for a number of reasons), he's still the odds-on favorite and I will be extremely surprised if he loses his seat.  Gillibrand is still in a lot more danger, even though she's not likely to go down, either.

[Erc]

As you can tell, I avoided answering that question directly...a lot of my opinion is just gut feeling, but there's some grounding in reality:

Hall runs a very slick campaign.  Not that Gillibrand's shabby herself, but Hall takes the cake--as evidenced by his upset victory in a more solidly Republican district.  Some of this was  attributable to luck, but definitely not all--he's got a great staff, lots of connections, lots of fundraising potential, to name a few. 

I'd also say (and feel free to dispute this) that the far-out suburban regions that Hall represents are swinging harder to Democrats than NY-20 is.  Some of this may be canceled out if Giuliani runs, though (I get the sense he's still popular in upper Westchester).