Who is the Republican frontrunner?

[Erc]

Paul is anti-NAFTA, for reasons that I don't entirely agree with, but I do understand.  His position is that such bilateral/trilateral agreements may liberalize trade with those countries, but tend to put up more barriers with other countries.  He thinks of them as regional trading blocs--that could become more than just trading blocs (compare the progress towards the EU from the free trade agreements of the early post-war period, says he).  He also doesn't like the WTO, as he doesn't like the reduction in US sovereignty that comes as a result.

But Paul is by no means 'protectionist' in spirit--he supports free trade, and his ideal world would have free trade between all countries.  However, I don't quite know how he proposes to get from here to there without institutions like NAFTA or the WTO.

[Erc]

Problem is, I don't quite see Romney getting enough traction nationwide to sweep the country.  His poll position now is terrible (although everybody's is at this point, I suppose)--and would need big momentum out of the early states to pull it off.  Unless he wins Iowa, he's going to do no better than splitting the early states with Huckabee, and will likely even lose FL.  Huckabee will likely get the bigger boost out of January.  In order to win on Super Tuesday, he'll need to get the support of a lot of voters who are currently in the Rudy / McCain camp...and if Rudy's still in the running by Super Tuesday, what seems more likely, even with a strong Romney, is a three-way split in many states where Huckabee, with a very loyal and excited base, wins in most states.  Romney might win a few of the big ones, but I'm finding it hard to see how he'll pull it off convincingly now that his former 'January sweep' strategy is having problems.

Huckabee's supporters will be quite motivated--Romney would largely be attracting support from those who don't like Huckabee, as opposed to actually liking Romney.

But I may be underestimating Romney's money advantage, or underestimating how much coverage he gets if he starts winning primaries (although my main point is that this will be split with Huckabee if Huckabee is doing well, too).



As for the Paul thing, I don't rightly know.  I don't follow the guy's platform that closely, and I'm not considering voting for him unless it's a fait accompli by Feb 5th.

[Erc]

Watch the Republican race end up being boring as watching paint dry, in the end...it could easily be "Huckabee wins most every state but NH and UT" at the rate this is going.

[Erc]

Watch the Republican race end up being boring as watching paint dry, in the end...it could easily be "Huckabee wins most every state but NH and UT" at the rate this is going.

Yup, Huckabee wins, the GOP gets absolutely slaugtered in the GE for electing somebody like that, and hopefully then the Republican Party will wake up and dump the religious right.

Since the GOP is going to lose anyway, we might as well lose productively, I suppose.  Shame that that guarantees that Al Franken gets into the Senate on coattails, though.