probability that the following potential GOP candidates will run in 2012

[Erc]

Crist is currently engaged and will be married by the end of the year, so that removes one of the last impediments to his run.  Around 2/3 chance.

Unless terrorism again becomes a huge issue (i.e. a major terrorist attack in the third year of Obama's presidency), I can't see Giuliani trying again.  <15% chance.

Huckabee is definitely setting up for a run.  >90% chance.

Jindal...around 50%.

Palin--If Obama wins, Palin's going to get the blame for the defeat.  <20%.

Pawlenty.  Depends on whether he runs for re-election in 2010 or not.  <30%.

Pence.  Keeps on getting talked about, but isn't going anywhere until Dick Lugar dies or Evan Bayh goes on to better things.  <10%.

Romney.  He may, but he'll still have been a 4-year governor out of office for 6 years.  <40%.

Sanford.  Nope.  <10%.

Thune...<50%?  I don't know.