kemma
Newbie
Posts: 1
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« on: November 10, 2003, 09:37:27 AM » |
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I believe that it is wrong to assume that Bush will have an easy reelection. When it's crunchtime, people will be surprised to see how mch of a struggle it is going to be regarding his reelection. Just look at the independents data, the letest poll indicates that only 40 percent of the independents consider voting for Bush, while 53 percent do consider voting for other candidates (arguably democratic). given the fact that the committed (republican, democrats) voters are almost equal (with maybe a slim republican majority) , I believe that the independents will decide this election, and they do not see a compassionate conservative in Bush by any means.
But I agree that the south is going to be a republican landslide (with maybe arkansas or gore's home state coming into play, but I doubt it) but democrats may carry west virginia (its economy is in bad shape, but wva is not necessarily considered south.)
Look for ohio among others where the democrats may surprise the pundits declaring bush landslide.
this election will not be determined by texas , south carolina, virginia or strong democratic households like new jersey, new york, michingan (it wont be a battleground state this time) but rather places like ohio, oregon, kentucky, nevada and the other midwest states.
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