Under this map (Obama = actual results - 4.48%, McCain = actual results + 4.48%), the closest Democratic state is IA.
The actual IA results were Obama 53.93%, McCain 44.39%. If McCain were to win it, then he would need to have 4.77% (instead of 4.48%) more than the actual results, while Obama would lose 4.77% (again instead of 4.48%).
Returning to the actual results map:
So now, we subtract 4.77% (instead of 4.48%) from Obama and add 4.77% to McCain (again instead of 4.48%):
In this map (Obama = actual results - 4.77%, McCain = actual results + 4.77%), McCain wins the popular vote 48.10% to 50.38% and the electoral vote 262 to 276.
From these maps, I would say that the deciding states were CO and IA. IA guaranteed Obama at least a tie, in which case Congress would be almost certain to vote in favor of him and Biden, and CO actually pushed Obama past the 270 electoral vote mark.