McCain would've won by at least 20, probably more like 25. Clinton wouldn't have done as differently from Obama as some people like to believe in most states.
Yes,
George W. Bush beat John Kerry in 2004 65.6%-34.4%, which was only minisculely less than McCain's 65.65%-34.35% victory over Barack Obama. I bet my left nut that the total wouldn'tve increased that much in a bad year for Republicans if it weren't for Sarah Palin being on the Republican ticket. The sudden appearance of Crazy Hockey Mom Palin gave the GOP more votes than any race motivated reason could have. That and rumors that Obama is an evil socialist (the rumor of which is almost universally accepted among the general Okie populace).
Now let us say that Hillary Clinton did win the nomination and chose Evan Bayh as her VP choice. In a perfect world where the Lewinsky Affair never happened, Hillary would've done pretty damn good (losing by only 5% maybe, I doubt if events like 9/11 happened she would be able to win). But this is no perfect world, Bill Clinton liked em chubby and that destroyed both his and Hillary's reputation among Okies. Many saw Hillary not just flat out saying "screw you Bill" and leaving the White House with her bags as a sign of weakness. That plus rumors that she is a closet socialist lesbian (not joking). With Evan Bayh on the ticket it would help Hillary a little, but nowhere as near as much as Palin helps McCain. In fact Hillary being a woman running for president would probably hurt her just as much (if not worse) than Obama being black did (which was actually quite minute in the grand scheme of things). Expect the same uber spin game done on Obama done on Hillary (that she will tax you to death blah blah blah), except with a greater focus on a potential Universal Healthcare Plan (which was one of the defining parts of Hillary's campaign) instead of increased taxes.
With all the above stated, I believe at best Hillary wins a few counties in southeast Oklahoma and McCain beats her with around 58.5% (I think this may actually be too generous) of the vote (the Bayh Factor as well as closeness to Arkansas and some Okies remembering the Clinton Age would lessen the blow of the GOP's merciless campaigning). She would also win a bit more of the populist vote (ie ObamaOklahoma type voters) than Obama did. Most likely McCain wins with 64% of the vote.
Having spent a fair amount of time in Oklahoma I'd agree with most of this. Hillary would have done better but not by much...
