What are the odds that Toomey will be the next junior Senator from PA?

[Purple State]

< 10%. He could easily beat Specter, but winning the general is almost out of the question for him. Even moreso if Specter chooses to skip the Republican primary and run as an independent.

[Purple State]

Don't discount a liberal third party candidate/independent popping up if Specter gets the nomination.

Even so, Specter has a major advantage now depending on how he plays his new role as a Dem. But Toomey is just about screwed at this point.

I do agree with Lunar though, I would like to see how all this plays out in polls in the next few weeks.

Yeah, I think this actually improves his chances since he'll have an easy line of attack.  Still slim chances, but he doesn't need such a perfect environment.

Easy line but only popular with those who are already going to vote for him. Dems just want 60 so they won't care. Plus, PA likes the moderates. Specter vs. Toomey in a general election goes to Specter easily.

[Purple State]

I love everyone here. I really do. "Yeah, Toomey is screwed now!" God, I just might refuse to show up to vote tomorrow with such bad news!

Easy line but only popular with those who are already going to vote for him. Dems just want 60 so they won't care. Plus, PA likes the moderates. Specter vs. Toomey in a general election goes to Specter easily.

Oh, it's always that simple.    Glad you know the climate already for 2010.

I find it interesting that when you have a situation favorable to your guy you jump on it like it's from God's mouth to your ear, but when the other side has an advantage it's always "too early to tell" and predicting way too far out. If you take a pledge never to predict again any more than one month out, then I will gladly join you, but we both know you can't do it.

Sure, things can change, but the initial reaction to this is Toomey is finished.

[Purple State]

I find it interesting that when you have a situation favorable to your guy you jump on it like it's from God's mouth to your ear, but when the other side has an advantage it's always "too early to tell" and predicting way too far out. If you take a pledge never to predict again any more than one month out, then I will gladly join you, but we both know you can't do it.

I've explained this countless times! That primary would have been much different than a General. My points were based on thirty years of anger with Specter, Toomey's strengths, the absence of Specter's big conservative backers, etc.

You can't compare that type of primary with the climate for a General...unless you were entertaining the idea that the climate would change so drastically within the GOP and tons of PA Republicans would become moderate/left leaning.

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And the initial reaction means nothing. Nothing.

I wasn't actually referring to anything specific. I haven't been here long enough to become accustomed to your predictions. But what is the point of having this forum on off years if we can't give our initial reactions and long-term predictions? Rather than yell about how it's too far out, why not join the discussion and make it more productive?

[Purple State]

The odds just went up, but they're still less than 30%.

Why has it gone up. Specter probably won't be primaried by the Democrats and can Toomey beat Specter in a general election?