CA-GOV: Newsom vs. ???

[Holmes]

It'll be Villaraigosa.

[Holmes]

Over 40 candidates are running. The second place finisher in the primary likely gets 7-15%.

The second place finisher won't get <10%.

[Holmes]

An even better strategy for the GOP is to start running exactly 2 strong candidates in every race, and hope that the Democrats run 3+. Then results like this could happen (not that I think it will in this race, mainly because Newsom is too strong):

1. Allen 17%
2. Cox 17%
3. Newsom 16%
4. Villaraigosa 16%
5. Chiang 12%
6. Eastin 10%
7. Renteria 7%
Others 5%

Just like that, nearly 2 times fewer R votes than D votes, and yet the runoff is R vs. R.

Question, even if Republicans run "strong candidates", why does the leading Democrat get 10% less than he's polling at in your example?

[Holmes]

Ose dropped out.

[Holmes]

Very hard to take an ad about sexual affairs from Republicans seriously considering who their president is.

[Holmes]

I didn't even say anything about Trump running for governor, and if you want to focus on state issues, don't bring up extramarital affairs.