Is there a state that’s going to swing left this year?

[Schiff for Senate]

Gubernatorially? Here are the ones that are at least reasonably possible (ranked from most to least obvious)

1. IN definitely does (Holcomb won by over 30 in 2020, Rainwater will likely draw quite a few votes from Braun, though less than 2020, and most of all, McCormick seems like a very strong candidate, very much this cycle's Hofmeister)

2 (way tie). Solid chance UT does (Cox won by a solid 33 points in 2020); NH probably will, considering Sununu's retiring and won by a pretty solid margin in 2022 (I don't see Republicans managing it again)

3. Decent chance ND does (Burgum was reelected by 40 points in 2020 - though then again, downballot Rs always do insanely well in ND)

4. Underrated possibility that NC does (Robinson's such a kook that although it's unlikely, I could see a 2022 PA-GOV kinda result, obviously on a less dramatic scale, where Stein wins by quite a bit more than the polls suggest)

5. VT Dems might just have a dead cat's bounce...there has to be a point where even Unbeatable Titan Scott reaches his ceiling