US House Redistricting: Louisiana

[BoiseBoy]

Louisiana is moving fast. House expects to pass a map by February 5.

https://twitter.com/BlakePater/status/1487140577061838854?s=20&t=MvTbTzS1ix6...

[BoiseBoy]

A bunch of bills have been filed today with congressional draft plans. There are a lot of 4-2 maps, but there are also least change 5-1 maps as well.

https://twitter.com/BlakePater/status/1488347068070510593?s=20&t=PDwhGI7iks5...

[BoiseBoy]

So no compromise map on the table where the Baton Rouge metro is kept whole for a seat similar to the old Arkansas 2nd.

The 2nd map seems interesting, its LA02 has a much larger portion of EBR. My bet is that its an attempt to peel off 1 or 2 EBR dem legislators to help their own position in a primary.

The second map lacks a 6th district. I don't know what happened there.

[BoiseBoy]

So no compromise map on the table where the Baton Rouge metro is kept whole for a seat similar to the old Arkansas 2nd.

The 2nd map seems interesting, its LA02 has a much larger portion of EBR. My bet is that its an attempt to peel off 1 or 2 EBR dem legislators to help their own position in a primary.

The second map lacks a 6th district. I don't know what happened there.

Oh shoot the 2nd map isn't a congressional map good catch

Yeah I double checked and it's for the Louisiana Public Service Commission.

[BoiseBoy]

So this is obviously going to just be 1 Dem seat right?

I feel like the play in states with split government is whoever has the majority on the court just runs out the clock and gets there way anyway. Dems have no chance with a court being split 5-1-1

Probably going to be the least change map proposed by Sen. Hewitt or something very similar. As much as I would like to see a second black district (plurality or otherwise), the legislature will not pass it and JBE will not have enough leverage to push for a second seat.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/MelindaDeslatte/status/1488617615962558465

Yeah that shows the "limits" of LA. In a state roughly 1/3 AA it is simple to get 1/3 of seats to be AA seats...but then you have to reach. Anyway, the GOP Leg will likely be giving JBE a least change plan to veto:

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1488622417627037703?s=20&t=99XrPOz3...

Least change is not surprising at all, It'll probably be closer to the Hewitt plan. Bel Edwards will veto, and then the LA House will fail to override it. I wonder what the court will do.