Why are Tennessee's suburbs still vote Republican

[Pres Mike]

In the Trump era, suburbs around the nation swifted leftward. Even in Southern states like Texas and Georgia.

But not in Tennessee. Already more conservative than suburbs in the rest of the nation, Tennessee's suburbs either stayed the same or went right!

In Memphis, Democrats made no gains in the suburbs of Germantown, Collierville and Bartlett. Nevermind neighboring bedroom suburbs in Tipton or Fayette counties lol. Both went right!

Outside of Nashville, Rutherford County went from 60-34% to 57-41%. But that was mostly 2016 third party voters going Democrat. Williamson County went 64-29% to 62-34%. Once again, it was gains from third party votes

Tennessee was an odd state. Trump made further gains in rural areas. Memphis and Nashville went left. Suburbs stayed mostly the same. This was the opposite of the rest of the nation.

Statewide, it went from 35-61% to 37-61%

I think unlike Georgia or Texas, Tennessee's high growth comes from upper middle class families and retirees. Tennessee is more like Florida when it comes to migration patterns

[Pres Mike]

Why wouldn't they? White-majority southern suburbia is still quite Republican outside of the innermost burbs, barring unusual circumstances.

I see, so the suburbs in Georgia and Texas are more diverse? Make sense.

[Pres Mike]

With Memphis, a large part is definitely pretty extreme race polarization that hasn’t gotten much better. If you look at the one part of metro Memphis that has actually gotten pretty diverse; DeSoto County in MS, it has zoomed left. Another factor is most of Memphis’s influence is confined to Shelby and DeSoto Counties we don’t really see much sprawl into neighboring counties; at least as much as one would expect for a metro if it’s size

Metro Nashville counties definitely have shifted left, but many of these counties include exurbs/rurals that have stalled this a bit

You’re right about the racial polarization. Memphis is roughly 70% African American while the suburban communities of Bartlett, Germantown, Collierville, Lakeland and Arlington are all roughly 65-70% white. The Memphis metro area is probably the most racially polarized metro area in the nation (1 million plus)

DeSoto County is interesting because it has million dollar McMansions for the Memphis white flight. But it has poor blank towns like Hornlake. I went to a mall in DeSoto County. Quite a cultural clash lol.

Evangelicalism

Yes, Tennessee suburbs are quite religious. But more so than other southern states?

[Pres Mike]

Why wouldn't they? White-majority southern suburbia is still quite Republican outside of the innermost burbs, barring unusual circumstances.

I see, so the suburbs in Georgia and Texas are more diverse? Make sense.

They are so much more diverse. Fort Bend and Gwinnett Counties are both less then 1/3 white. Williamson County TN is 80% white

Make sense. Tennessee is 6% Hispanic. Georgia and North Carolina are 10%. Texas is 40%

Tennessee is 16% black. Georgia is 30%! North Carolina is 20%. Texas is 12%

Tennessee is 2% Asian. Georgia is 4%. NC is 3%. Texas is 5%

Georgia is almost half minority. If it wasn't for intense racial polorazation and low black turnout, Georgia should have been a swing state a long time ago

[Pres Mike]

Because those metros aren't large. If you look at the metros with Dem trending suburbs, DFW, Houston, ATL, Phoenix are all top 10 on the list. Nashville is relatively small and not even as big as Indianapolis. The smaller the metro area, the more Republican the suburbs are.

Make sense

Even within the city limits of Memphis and Nashville, there are suburban communities. I guess middle class minorities are still finding homes within the city. While a crowded place like Atlanta requires them to leave the county

[Pres Mike]

The Memphis metro area is probably the most racially polarized metro area in the nation (1 million plus)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birmingham_metropolitan_area,_Alabama

I honestly didn't realize the Birmingham Metro area had so many people. Birmingham itself is about 1/3 of Memphis proper

[Pres Mike]

It's a truly wild fact that 2020 was the first election in decades that the biggest R net vote total state wasn't Texas. It was Tennessee. Trump won TN by 708k votes and TX by 631k votes. You have to go quite a ways back before 2020 to find a race where TX wasn't this for the Republicans.

TN is an excellent fit for the Trump era GOP, as is the rest of the Upper South, which generally seems to be the Trumpiest region of America in terms of Trump having an edge over average garden variety Rs.

I wonder if Florida will become the largest net vote total. Trump won it by 370k votes but if he was to win 60% it may. Of course I expect turnout to drop if Florida is no longer a swing state. I think

[Pres Mike]

Because those metros aren't large. If you look at the metros with Dem trending suburbs, DFW, Houston, ATL, Phoenix are all top 10 on the list. Nashville is relatively small and not even as big as Indianapolis. The smaller the metro area, the more Republican the suburbs are.

Make sense

Even within the city limits of Memphis and Nashville, there are suburban communities. I guess middle class minorities are still finding homes within the city. While a crowded place like Atlanta requires them to leave the county

Memphis dips into Mississippi, and to a lesser extent, Arkansas.

Shelby County has plenty of space. The sprawl into neighboring states are for a different reason. For sad but understandable reasons. Homes in Southaven MS are quite expensive

[Pres Mike]

DeSoto County is interesting because it has million dollar McMansions for the Memphis white flight. But it has poor blank towns like Hornlake. I went to a mall in DeSoto County. Quite a cultural clash lol.

The dynamics of DeSoto suburbia are strange because, unlike Tennessee, Mississippi has a state income tax. I suspect the highest-earning Memphians would prefer to stay in TN, for this reason.   

If you work in Memphis but live in DeSoto, you wouldn't pay state income tax. You pay where you do the job.

[Pres Mike]

But anyway, Tennessee's suburbs are much more White than the suburbs of Texas or Georgia.  I'm trying not to cherry-pick, but here are the 2020 racial demographics of select cities/suburbs in 2020:

Thank you for the data!