Inverclyde by-election

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Caused by the death of David Cairns, former Minister of State at the Scotland Office, of acute pancreatitis on May 9th.

Brief Profile

Created in the 2005 boundary review, Inverclyde was created from the old Greenock & Inverclyde seat and parts of the old West Renfrewshire seat. A safe Labour seat, Inverclyde hasn't elected any other party since 1983, when the Conservatives won Renfrew West & Inverclyde. Labour won it back in 1987, holding it in 1992 against none other than Annabel Goldie. That seat was abolished in 1997.

Cairns extended his majority in 2010 with a 3.6% swing from the SNP to Labour, clearly holding off the UK-wide swing and improving on the Scotland-wide swing of 0.1% from the SNP to Labour - many declaring this a semi-favourite son effect for Gordon Brown.

In the Scottish Parliamentary election in May, on slightly different boundaries, Duncan McNeil was returned for a fourth term, his majority down from 13.1% in 2007 to 1.8% now - a 6.7% swing to the SNP.

Past Results

2010: Labour 56.0, SNP 17.5, Liberal Democrat 13.3, Conservative 12.0, UKIP 1.2
2005: Labour 50.7, SNP 19.6, Liberal Democrat 17.0, Conservative 10.2, SSP 2.5

The SNP would need a 19.2% swing towards them to gain this seat. The SNP have only achieved such swings in Glasgow East in 2008 which saw a 22.5% swing and Glasgow Govan in 1988 which saw a 33.1% swing.

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Labour hold. Not as comfortable as they would like on the back of the SNP's recent win. Labour will no doubt say it shows the SNP aren't as popular etc etc, when the reality is a Labour win here (and they did win Greenock at Holyrood too) is simply a continuation of the different voting patterns at Holyrood and Westminster.

Parties other than Labour/SNP unlikely to get more than 10% in total.

The by-elections in this parliament have been so predictable!

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The SNP has selected Anne McLaughlin, a former MSP for the Glasgow region, having taken the seat in 2009 after being one of the 'back-up' list candidates. She contested Rutherglen in 2001, Springburn in 2007 and she was John Mason's campaign co-ordinator in Glasgow East in 2008. Her most notable act as an MSP was probably controversially taking photos inside the Scottish Parliament building, so... she's done nothing notable really.

Labour's selected Iain McKenzie, a former employee of IBM. He's been a local councillor since 2003 and the leader of Inverclyde council since February this year.

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Sophie Bridger, president of the Scottish Liberal Youth has been selected for the Liberal Democrats.

Cllr David Wilson is going for the Tories.

Alex Salmond launched the SNP campaign on Tuesday. David Cameron's apparently not campaigning, clearly not wanting to drive voters to Labour.

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Mitch Sorbie is standing for UKIP and one the Lab and Con candidates actually live in the constituency.

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I suppose the strike will drive turn out up a tad, right?

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Tweeters throwing out a Labour majority of 2-4k.

Yawn. I hope the next one's in a Lib-Con marginal though.

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Liberals possibly behind UKIP... in Scotland.

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Jo Swinson says ongoing LibDem catastrophe in Scotland because of 'communication problems'.

Can't wait for Dunbartonshire to turn red...

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8.83% swing to the SNP from LAB
0.03% swing to CON from LAB
4.48% swing to LAB from LD

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And after 4 by-elections:

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Another awful result for the Lib Dems.  Hopefully this time their candidate won't go crying to the Daily Mail about what a horrible place the constituency is.

That once happened?

I think it was Barnsley Central. Saying how people from Barnsley are all racist, backward and stuck in the past so, naturally, they wouldn't be iclined to vote for the amazing, progressive, (elitist), leftie Liberals.

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Not that this sort of thing ever tells us much, but if you apply the percentage changes from this by-election to all Scottish results in 2010 the follow seats change hands:

Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to third behind the Tories).
Argyll & Bute - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to fourth behind the Tories and Labour).
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross - SNP gain from LDem
Dunbartonshire East - Labour gain from LDem
Edinburgh West - SNP gain from LDem (who fall to third behind Labour and the Tories. This would be an SNP win from fourth place, fwiw).
Falkirk - SNP gain from Labour
Gordon - SNP gain from LDem
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - SNP gain from LDem (and who wouldn't be at least vaguely pleased at that?)
Ochil & South Perthshire - SNP gain from Labour

nothing grossly infeasible about any of those, as long as the Scottish Government doesn't do anything outlandishly stupid

Some will fall to the SNP next time round (Gordon Brown's gone), not that many though.