UK Opinion Polls Thread

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http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/eiy9720btf/YG-Archives-Pol-ST-results-11-130512.pdf

Ed M's approvals move above the PM's for the first time since the week of the Murdoch pie incident last year and also make for his biggest approval lead over the PM since he got a +7 net in October 2010.

This, coupled with the local election results and still, the Tories haven't learnt their lesson from the 2010 election: they shouldn't be complacent.

Of course, being the least bad of the bunch isn't exactly an amazing endorsement.

YouGov'll have their fortnightly Preferred PM question on Wednesday or Thursday.

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Don't worry! The impending economic recovery and Ed Miliband being rather wierd will save the ToryLibs! Just look at President Sarkozy.

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Ed Balls opens up an 8 point lead over Osborne as the preferred Chancellor with Mori. Miliband has an +11 lead over the PM in the leadership ratings.

YouGov's preferred Prime Minister has it at 31-23-5.

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It's a testiment to how irrelevant he is how Nick Clegg's been stuck between 17-20% approval since March now - no more, no less. Weirdly static.

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Scotland poll from Ipsos-Mori

"Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?" Yes/No
32/55

Satisfied/Dissatisfied
Salmond 53/40
Lamont 38/29
Harvie 27/15
Davidson 26/32
Rennie 24/28
Cameron 24/70

I expected Lamont to be rather unpopular, although I don't follow what's going on north of the border much.

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Sunday Times out with some figures today.

Miliband at his best since just before the riots last August, even better than at the height of the omnishambles a month or two ago. I think his appearance at the Gala will definately help him get some much needed support from base Labour voters which he's always lacked. My only concern would be that he went into the last summer recess in as good a state, he's taken all year to finally break even, but then again, the government wasn't nearly as unpopular then as it is now. Plus, this week has been a true sign of how much Ed Miliband's fortunes have reversed from last year - would anyone else have thought last year that he could have worn his "red Ed" hat at the Gala while getting Tony Blair back in the fold in the same week?

Clegg's at his worst ever and you can see from the tables that Tories are starting to rail hard against him after the Lords' Reform f--- up this week. It's been the only notable move on Clegg's numbers since March. You can only be smug when you realise that Clegg goes down whenever he sticks his head above the parapet these days. It should be noted that the worst i can find for Gordon Brown from YouGov is 14/76 (-62).

Dave's up a bit. He's treding water at around the -20 to -25 mark, where he's been for a good few weeks now.

Headline figures with changes from last week
43 (nc)
34 (+2)
9 (+1)
7 (-1)

David Cameron
35 (+1)
60 (-1)
-25 (+2)

Ed Miliband
34 (+2)
55 (-1)
-21 (+3)

Nick Clegg
16 (-2)
75 (+2)
-59 (-4)

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http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/08/17/ipsos-mori-voting-intention-out/

Good news for Lab and Con with Ipsos.

A swing to the Tories on the headline, but still a 10% Labour lead. The PM's ratings are up and Miliband's about to enter positive territory with a -2.

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lol at the Liberals coming second in the 'put their own party interest before country' question.

I know right