Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[rob in cal]

   Sounds like Strache wants the Austria of the future to still be a predominately white European, Christian (at least nominally anyway) nation.  He doesn't seem excited about having an ethnic transformation of his country.  Wonder if this will resonate with the electorate.

[rob in cal]

  If the Pilz party keeps its momentum up I wonder if the Greens will be in danger of not making the threshold to win seats and then perhaps some of their voters will abandon them to Pilz, Neos and SPO in the closing days of the campaign, so that it becomes a snowball effect.

[rob in cal]

  Those Kurz posters look like ads for some hip and trendy product, like a new mens razor, a boutique hotel, or a cell phone.

[rob in cal]

   Tender, which party has your brother supported in the past?
    Also, would it be considered a  Grosse Koalition if its OVP FPO and FPO is about equal to SPO in votes, or is that term only for the historically two big parties?

[rob in cal]

   Usually the combined OVP FPO vote is somewhere in the mid to high 50's over the last few years or so.  61% seems a little high in the new poll.

[rob in cal]

  Has President Van der Bellen had much to say about the campaign and the possibility (likelihood?) that he may soon have to swear in members of the FPO into a new cabinet?

[rob in cal]

  So there is a danger of just enough Pilz and Green voters going over to the SPD to help them reach the number two spot and get a support level in the high 20's, but that in turn puts those parties in danger of not winning any seats.  If I was on the left I'd rather want to make sure all three parties win seats rather than helping the biggest one win a few more.  Looks like more fun with thresholds in store for us.

[rob in cal]

  I'll be interested to see how well the FPO does among the blue collar workers of Austria, most likely the FPO will continue the trend of working class voters=nationalist/populist electoral outcome.  Historic day in the offing.  Would be fascinating to see the Pilz list overtake the Greens as well.

[rob in cal]

  How well do the projections take into consideration the vote by mail?

[rob in cal]

 On the results page there are county wide and communal wide results even if the Land itself isn't fully counted.

[rob in cal]

   Seems like Green collapse is pretty strong everywhere.  Guessing the collapse won't be so bad once the cities come in?

[rob in cal]

  Greens down from 11% to 2.46 in Graz Umgebung (suburbs?).

[rob in cal]

  Vienna results so far SPO at 35%, Greens at only 5.84, with 38% of precincts counted, don't know where in Vienna though.  Greens at 5.84 is ominous for them.

[rob in cal]

  Looks like the Vienna numbers are from precincts all over the cities. If that means Greens are only at 5.8 I think they are in trouble for getting seats.

[rob in cal]

  Wien Neustadt Greens down from 11% to 2.7. SPO down about 3%, FPO up 6%.

[rob in cal]

  Vienna numbers holding pretty steady.  Does this put SPO in 2nd place nationwide?

[rob in cal]

  So I'm wondering what accounts for SPO strongholds in some rural areas like Burgenland, parts of Styria, Carinthia, the Hallstat area etc while in other parts of Austria like Tyrol and northern parts of Upper and Lower Austria they don't do as well.

[rob in cal]

  Tender, I don't know if you saw my previous post but do you have any insight into the various rural areas won by the SPO, places like Hallstat, that cluster of north central Styria, and areas surrounding Linz.  I'm guessing southern Carinthia has to do with the Slovenes?

[rob in cal]

   There doesn't seem to be too much international or domestic uproar over the possibility of the FPO joining the government.  Last year, when Hofer had a decent chance of being elected President there seemed to be much more left-wing angst over that happening.  Could it be that the office of President, even if not that powerful of a position like in Austria, attracts more controversy than merely being part of a government?

[rob in cal]

  So the FPO seems to be insisting on the interior ministry as their top demand for joining in a coalition with Kurz.  This is smart on their part as it would have a big impact on immigration policy, I would think, and thus let the FPO own that issue, which is a big one for most FPO voters.

[rob in cal]

  I'm excited about the possible introduction of a national initiative/referendum law. Both FPO and OVP supported it in the campaign. Assuming it would require 2/3 votes to pass, would Neos, or the Pilz group or the SPO be likely to also support it?   Getting this through would be a major accomplishment, and being a neighbor to Switzerland should help. Having grown up in California I like our initiative/referendum system. Its not perfect by any means, but I like having the electorate with a direct say in things.