2012 a bloodbath for Democrats in the senate?

[Landslide Lyndon]

There should be a lot of close races, but it will depend a lot on the national climate.

Everyone seems to think that Webb, McCaskill and Bill Nelson are weak, I think they're all in an ok position.

Exactly. Unlike Republicans this year, Schumer picked great candidates in 2006. Brown, Webb, McCaskil and Tester are much better politicians and campaigners than Paul, Johnson and Coats.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Scott Brown might not even survive the primary.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/03/scott-brown-finds-himself_n_778269.html

Tea Party activists didn't have to wait for the results of the 2010 elections to start conspiring about their targets for the next cycle. Sen. Orinn Hatch (R-UT) has long been considered a primary target, alongside Bob Corker (TN), Richard Lugar (IN) and Olympia Snowe (ME). All of the aforementioned are Republicans with a penchant for working in bipartisan fashion, some more than others.

One surprising name popping up on the 2012 target list, however, is an individual that the Tea Party turned into a cult hero of their movement. Scott Brown (R-Mass) has spent the past ten months in office building the framework for his reelection. He's worked with Democrats on a variety of economic initiatives while siding with the Republican caucus on other measures. He has been, as conventional wisdom goes, about as conservative as one can be in Democratic-leaning Massachusetts. But, for some, not conservative enough.

On Wednesday morning Red State's Erick Erickson put Brown on his list of "Potential Tea Party Targets for 2012."

Erickson's site is a hub for Tea Party theology and was one of the earlier indicators of the wave that would define the just-completed cycle. So his inclusion of Brown is noteworthy, not just in what it potentially foreshadows but also because it is an indication of how dispirited conservatives are with the man they helped elect.

That said, while Massachusetts showed some conservative trends in 2010, it's hard to imagine (at least at this point) voters there rallying around a new candidate after the euphoric victory of the first.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Republicans will gain the senate and lose the house. Just cause that'd be humorous.

Actually that's not really that far fetched.  

[Landslide Lyndon]

You're all forgetting the Dem pickup that's going to happen in Connecticut as well.

First of all, he is already counted as a Dem

Second of all, not if Jodi Rell runs

Jodi Rell won't run. And even if she does, she will suffer Mike Castle's fate.

[Landslide Lyndon]

You're all forgetting the Dem pickup that's going to happen in Connecticut as well.

First of all, he is already counted as a Dem

Second of all, not if Jodi Rell runs

Jodi Rell won't run. And even if she does, she will suffer Mike Castle's fate.

Connecticut is not Delaware.

And an apple is not an orange.

[Landslide Lyndon]

One possible wild card for redistricting: this will be the first time since the VRA was implemented that a Democratic DOJ will oversee the process in southern states.
This can go a long way into curbing possible shenanigans in states like Texas, North Carolina and Georgia

Also, I read somewhere that Snyder said that he wants a reasonable congressional map for Michigan and won't accept a partisan gerrymander. I don't believe he will fulfill his promise, unless he wants to carry favor with Democrats in case of a future takeover of the legislature or in return for their support for his reelection bid.

[Landslide Lyndon]

To all those who rate Olympia Snowe as super-safe in 2010, I would like to point out that when PPP polled the state a couple of months, they found that her approvals have dropped dramatically.

Democrats are pissed because of her lockstep voting with the rest of  her party, while Republicans are furious with her votes for the stimulus, TARP and the fact that she voted yes for HCR at the Finance Committee.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Bill Nelson in FL seems like a strong target for a GOP pickup.
Florida Democrats have really become irrelevant after 2010, and Nelson is their only high profile elected official left. (Republicans hold the Governorship including all statewide offices, veto-proof majorities in both legislative chambers, and 19 of 25 house seats).

With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised if Nelson retired as he will by 70 on election day.

With the redistricting initiatives that passed they will improve their position inevitably.
That said, is there any Republican that has expressed interest in running against Nelson?

[Landslide Lyndon]

As of now, the ones I'd worry about as a Republican would be Maine (Snowe retirement or primary loss), Massachusetts and Nevada. Arizona and Indiana could be problems with retirements.

Kyl isn't going anywhere. He waits his turn to become Republican leader.
Lugar has announced that he is running for reelection.

And after electing pinheads like Brewer and Quale Jr., I really doubt that Arizonans will vote for a Democrat.