CBS/YouGov: Clinton +6 in NV, Trump +17 in UT, Clinton +6 in Battleground Tracke (user search)
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  CBS/YouGov: Clinton +6 in NV, Trump +17 in UT, Clinton +6 in Battleground Tracke (search mode)
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +6 in NV, Trump +17 in UT, Clinton +6 in Battleground Tracke  (Read 3979 times)
Landslide Lyndon
px75
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Posts: 27,106
Greece


« on: October 16, 2016, 10:00:07 AM »

Again, this is not useless. One can get a good idea of where the race stands in each battleground state using this information, and a couple other assumptions.

I calculated margins for each state using the following two assumptions:
1. The battleground states will have the same total turnout proportions (relative to one another) as they had in 2012.
2. The battleground states will have margins relative to each other as described by 538's polls-plus model.

Neither of these assumptions is perfect, obviously, but they're likely good approximations. Given this, here's what we get for the margins in each battleground state...
AZ: D+2 (47%/45%)
CO: D+9 (50%/41%)
FL: D+6 (50%/44%)
GA: R+2 (46%/48%)
IA: D+4 (52%/48%)
MI: D+11 (51%/40%)
NV: D+6 (49%/43%)
NH: D+9 (50%/41%)
NC: D+5 (52%/47%)
OH: D+4 (48%/44%)
PA: D+9 (51%/42%)
VA: D+10 (51%/41%)
WI: D+10 (51%/41%)


EDIT: I see that they did a separate NV poll, and found a margin of D+6, which aligns well with my above estimation.

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