Next election predictions

[pbrower2a]

Palin and Huckabee don't run.

The nomination is a fight between Gingrich, Romney, and 2 of the following (Thune, Daniels, or Pawlenty). People like Pataki, Cain, and Johnson occassionally steal the spotlight, but it doesn't last into any solid wins.

There will be another economic crash tied to the debt likely when China cuts us off with loans. If it happens before 2012 Obama is defeated as long as republicans do as they promised in Congress 2012 (balanced budgets, repeal obamacare, tax cuts, entitlement reform) if they just act still as the party of No instead of doing something, then it's a tossup. If the crash doesn't happen by November, Obama is likely to be reelected unless he is defeated in the debates hands down (aka Gingrich...Romney possibly could pull it off, as well as Thune or Daniels but this needs to be a slap in the face to Obama).

Republicans barely retake the Senate and maintain the House with roughly the same numbers as 2010 (though they may lose a few seats).

Truly I believe Gingrich will win and pick a young running mate or new face to the national stage such as Thune, Christie, McDonnell, or even Daniels or Rubio.

So let's see how this plays out

It is impossible to balance a budget in the immediate aftermath of a general meltdown of the economy. Preservation of existing tax cuts is about all that the GOP is going to get. The desired tax shifts that put the increased burden on the working poor in order to give breaks for the super-rich is exactly the right way -- to incite violent protests and many strikes.

Asking for the impossible and unpractical is the usual method of extremists, and if the GOP gets the reputation of extremists, then it won't win the Presidency, it will make no gains in the Senate, and it will lose its recent gains in the House.

If China cuts off the US for debt, then America goes into protectionist mode and gets its manufacturing out of mothballs because the end of financing of American debt implies a shut-off of imports as well. If anything, such would create enough jobs to undo any economic meltdown.   

Gingrich would do almost as badly in a national campaign as Sarah Palin, not so much because he is a buffoon -- he is much less that than is Palin -- but instead because he is politically-rusty. He has been out of the political spotlight for more than ten years, and he has no idea of how to start even a statewide campaign. Think of Walter Mondale subbing for the late Paul Wellstone; that's almost what you get.     

[pbrower2a]

Well there's your calls, we'll see who's right.

And I don't recall massive strikes when the Bush tax cuts were inacted to avoid a further economic meltdown...

If the tax cuts are entirely for upper-income people and they are financed with new taxes that hit the non-rich hard or are in a package that eviscerates the minimum wage, then things can get ugly.

[pbrower2a]

Well there's your calls, we'll see who's right.

And I don't recall massive strikes when the Bush tax cuts were inacted to avoid a further economic meltdown...

If the tax cuts are entirely for upper-income people and they are financed with new taxes that hit the non-rich hard or are in a package that eviscerates the minimum wage, then things can get ugly.

When was the platform taxes solely for the richest? It has been for everyone as low as possible in every area. That's what I'm talking about. And only rich tax cuts would never make it through Congress

Situation possible but not certain. I start with the assumption that our super-rich are selfish abusers of whatever power they get over us. I also assume that the GOP will go further to the economic Right until such is stopped by the reality of electoral losses.

[pbrower2a]

Sorry, azmagic, I really disagree to the point where I don't see that as possible at all. Herman Cain has never even held office before, or been a general, which is crucial in the modern age. That being said, he would have probably been a good candidate had he won the Senatorial primary back in 2004.

He's created jobs - something Obama has never done, as CEO of Godfather's Pizza.  This is the Tea Party age NiK, lots can happen - like Johnson in Wisconsin.  He is an excellent stump speaker, interviewer, and speech giver in general.  He's witty and good for the party's image.  He's also very conservative and would be an excellent contrast to Obama.  In addition, he's not saddled with the baggage other GOP candidates have.

http://www.hermancain.com/default.asp

There is a speech right on that page.  The other thing:

http://spectator.org/archives/2010/12/27/run-herman-run

If you are a conservative, then there are two things that you don't want the government to do. One is to maximize revenue (taxes), and the other is to create jobs in government.

I'd be careful about assuming that the Tea Party Movement will continue its rise in the next two years. It gets to show itself in a role of responsibility, and it has yet to show that it won't make a fool of itself.  Excellent contrast to President Obama? He was an excellent contrast to Dubya.

Business executives tend to do a horrible job as elected officials. Look at Corzine in New Jersey! He was a Democrat! Most likely this guy runs an independent campaign much as Ross Perot did and siphons off votes from a more conventional  conservative like Huckabee -- or Romney. By doing so he ends up with a 45-35-20 split of the popular vote. People want politicians to look out for needs that Big Business either can't achieve or for prodding Big Business to do the right thing when there is a choice between greater profit and human decency.

[pbrower2a]

I would say this is the map of Obama vs. Generic Republican. Certain candidates' strengths or weaknesses would help them to exceed this map's expectations or otherwise fail to reach this 303-235 loss with dignity.

So far, "Generic Republican" seems to be running stronger than any well-known Republican. I can see regional weaknesses for every one of them (Romney would do better in the North but at the expense of a Southern state or two that the GOP can't afford to lose; Huckabee would do badly in the North, perhaps picking up North Carolina (which wouldn't be enough) but losing  the Dakotas). That's before I talk of candidates on the fringe of either ability (Palin), skills running a national campaign (Gingrich --- think of Gerald Ford without the geniality), or near-unknowns. In view of how Pawlenty (lapsed Catholics would lose places with lots of Catholics) and Santorum do in their "own" states, you can write them off now. At that, I don't see how a fairly-unknown Senator from a very Red State (Thune, South Dakota) that is no microcosm of any large region of America has a chance. 

"Generic Republican" and "Generic  Democrat" go into hibernation  at the time of the first primaries and stay in hibernation until the electoral season is over. In contrast, we all know President Obama and his political weaknesses (including geographic vulnerabilities) very well. I think that Republicans are looking for personal electoral strengths of some unidentified Republican whose political acumen will overwhelm President Obama or that President Obama will be an abject failure.

I have a problem with anyone winning 335 or so electoral votes for the simple reason that nobody wins with between 57% and 65% of the electoral vote. The one in the lead plays it safe with the political equivalent of the Nickel Defense, consolidating states that might be shaky while abandoning those on the margin of victory; the one behind tends to take chances that either make the election closer or turn the election into a blowout.  Obama was on the low end of the blowout zone in 2008 and will likely either

(1) lose by a small margin (235-268 electoral votes)
(2) win with fewer than 315 electoral votes, or
(3) win 355 or more electoral votes (the sky is the theoretical limit, especially against some incompetent campaigner)

315-355 would be unprecedented since 1900.

As an illustration, if he won the states that he won in 2008 and no others he would win 359 electoral votes in 2012, or 358 if he lost NE-02 or the state went to winner-take-all.