New Mexico

[pbrower2a]

On one hand, it was extremely close in 2000 and 2004; on the other hand, Obama won it by a massive margin in 2008. Still, McCain pretty much ignored the west to live in Pennsylvania, and I suppose the state could be competitive in a closer election (and/or with Susana Martinez). All in all, I'd call it a Lean D state which could easily become a swing state.

I think that you are right. President Obama maxed out in New Mexico. I just can't imagine him doing better in New Mexico or any other state that he won by a 9% or greater margin (basically DC, a Democratic gimme, any state that went for either Gore or Kerry, and Nevada. The interstate polarization that so marked the 2008 election is unlikely to be repeated, and I can see the President winning New Mexico with a 15% margin only if he wins the US popular vote with about a 15% margin (which would be 57.5% to 42.2%, which is about what Ronald Reagan did in 1984).

President Obama can hardly win re-election without winning New Mexico; without it he also loses every other state that Dubya ever won as well, and probably loses Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well.  I have noticed a narrowing of approval ratings for the President, with him gaining in states that he lost and weakening in states that he won. Such may reflect a weakening of intrastate polarization. 

[pbrower2a]

GOP doesnt need NM, should focus on states that are safe GOP or lean GOP.  Try to get back the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington)

They must win back all of the following:

1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. Virginia
4. One of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.

If they can meet these conditions they have won Indiana, NE-02, and North Carolina, and kept the President from winning Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and maybe Kentucky and/or Tennessee.

The Republicans can also win if they win Pennsylvania as a substitute for Ohio, Virginia, or one of the states in Category 4, Pennsylvania and one of the states in Category 4 as a substitute for Florida, or all four of the states in Category 4 as a substitute for Florida.  (Well, rule out Pennsylvania as a practical substitute for Ohio or Virginia because Ohio and Virginia are both more R than Pennsylvania and otherwise similar).