I think Colorado should be red.
I haven't seen a recent poll of Colorado. The electoral behavior of Colorado in 2010 and demographic change suggest that Colorado is more typical of the Democratic firewall than it is of a true swing state. It could be D+2 by now while a state like New Hampshire goes R+2.
I am guessing that Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia are about the political average. All in all, a 49-49 split of the popular vote is an even split, and a state close to the national average is a pure tossup. But as significant is how the vote for third-Party or self-funded Independent candidates go. In 2008, the combined vote for John McCain and Bob Barr was larger than the combined vote for Barack Obama and Ralph Nader in North Carolina and the other way around in Missouri. Voters for Ralph Nader would have never voted for John McCain and those for Bob Barr would have never voted for Barack Obama.
Imagine that states close to the national average such as Iowa and Pennsylvania have a left-wing candidate who takes away enough Obama votes that the President loses those states and that nobody on the Right is so effective in a state (let us say Indiana or Missouri) to have such an effect. Third-Party and independent candidates can throw a monkey wrench into a close election. The "other 2%" can make a huge difference.
As it is, the President seems to be winning critical matchups despite having very low approval ratings even in some states in which he is winning the matchups. It is possible that low approval ratings more reflect the failure of the US economy than than they reflect dissent with the available candidates on their promises and cultural stands. If people could 'elect' an economy and vote for politicians on everything else, then maybe President Obama would be doing very well.
The Republicans now have some culpability for the state of the economy through filibusters and extreme posturing in the House. When economic stewardship with the political personalities now available matter far less than does defeating the President and otherwise consolidating power for major reforms that are now unpopular (like a national "Right to Work" law, dismantling the EPA, or privatizing Social Security and Medicare), Republicans own their share in the economic hardships of the time. So far as I can tell the economy is a wash.
But much of that will decide whether the election of 2012 goes 49-49 or 55-44 (whatever way) or something in between.
