Obama won the 12 states polled 53.2 to 45.5
Obama's way behind his 2008 showing
With these numbers Obama still wins on uniform swing with either 272 or 285 EV depending on which way Virginia falls. Romney needs to either increase the swing more than it currently is or hope that Iowa's current swing in the polls by much more than a uniform swing would call for is kept while Virginia' current less than average swing increases. If the election were held today, Obama wins. However, Romney still has four months to campaign and that's a lot of time and money, so he still has a reasonable shot at winning.
Actually, considering these are registered voters this poll is a dead heat, if not a slight Romen lead with a reasonable likely voter model. That being said, I still think Romney is down in Virginia. Who knows, Iowa + Wisco makes up for Virginia.
The Republicans win the general election (including the Presidency) with a "likely voter" model that shows an electorate similar to that of 2010. Democrats at all levels will seek to expand the electorate as much as possible. Expect Democrats to do everything possible to register new, D-leaning voters and encourage them to vote. Expect Republican officials to make voting as difficult as possible.
The GOP has taken a massive 21,000 vote registration edge in Iowa. Compare that to the 100.000 edge the Democrats had in 2008, or the 4000 edge the GOP had in 2004.
It's in the bag.
Democratic registration was way up in Iowa in 2008 because of the contested Democratic primary, and Republican registration in 2012 is way up because of the heavily-contested Republican primary. Fall college terms have yet to start, and if the Obama campaign has any uncertainty about Iowa it is going to double down on registering new voters and cajoling them to vote.
It's who has the edge at the end of registration that counts.
One in 12 say the commercials have altered their opinion about Obama or Romney, with 76% of them now favoring the president compared to 16% who say they switched to Romney.
The only interesting bit of data from this poll.
...and that is itself a portent of an R disaster. It's the marginal voter that counts most in a close election.