MI: EPIC/MRA: Snyder with 8-point lead

[pbrower2a]

This is relevant:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

A year before the election he is in the area of 44% approval which on its own gives him a 50% chance of winning re-election.  But that could be very close to his ceiling. The severe negative ratings must go down before he has a strong chance at re-election. His likely opponent simply is badly known in southeastern Michigan where the votes are. The unions will never forgive Rick Snyder for his promotion of Duty to Starve legislation and feminists will never forgive him for a harsh anti-abortion law.

...Barack Obama having only 39% approval in Michigan... ha, ha, ha!

[pbrower2a]

Here is a report on how single-state pollsters do in Michigan in contrast to those that operate in states other than Michigan as well as Michigan on the 2012 Presidential race:



Nate Silver has something here. Michigan has lots of  one-state pollsters, and most of them lean clearly R. If those pollsters were right, then we would have never gotten this result:

Michigan      total votes -- 4,743,887    margin 49,313        Obama/Biden  2,564,569 (54.06%)

Romney/Ryan 2,115,256  (44.59%)   

margin 49,313 (9.47% D)


others    64,062 (1.35%)

There really was no big late-season collapse by Romney. Polls in Michigan from May to late August by pollsters other than the forgettable "We Ask America" had President Obama getting winning Michigan by about 7%, and he won by about 2.5% more.

[pbrower2a]

Oh, I just checked. I accidentally confused them with those 2 other pollsters (Mitchell Research and Baydoun/Foster) which were even worse than EPIC-MRA. But EPIC-MRA is still awful.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/mi/michigan_senate_hoekstra_vs_stabenow-1817.html

If you believe Hoekstra was ever within 2 points of Stabenow and Romney was ever leading in Michigan, I have a bridge to sell you.

PPP (D)   12/3 - 12/6   1224 RV   45   44   Stabenow +1

There were a few other pollsters, including EPIC, showing the race within 2 points:

Mitchell Research   8/23 - 8/23   1277 LV   44   45   Hoekstra +1
Baydoun/Foster (D)   8/16 - 8/16   1733 LV   46   48   Hoekstra +2
EPIC-MRA   2/12 - 2/17   600 LV   44   42   Stabenow +2

I can't imagine why you chose to single out PPP and ignore the others...

The PPP poll showing Hoekstra and Stabenow nearly even was before the infamous Super Bowl ad with the young 'Chinese' woman riding a bicycle in a rice paddy and thanking "Debbie Spend-It-Now" in broken English for making her country rich.

http://search.yahoo.com/search?ei=utf-8&fr=ytff1-yff40&p=hoekstra%20super%20bowl%20ad&type=

The Hoekstra campaign collapsed ten months before the election because of that ad.  I doubt that we will see anything like that in political advertising for a long time.