FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close

[pbrower2a]

Republicans have to win this state.

They can lose it -- but they can't win the Presidency without it.

[pbrower2a]

Oldie (July) but goldie from Nate Cohn at The New Republic:

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113833/gop-latino-problem-republicans-need-florida-hispanics

"Florida was so close [in 2012] because the GOP has already made huge gains among white voters—bigger than any other battleground state. Obama lost Florida’s whites by 24 points, 10 points worse than Kerry’s more modest, 14 point defeat in 2004."

"Early polls show Hillary Clinton crushing in Florida by a double-digit margin because she’s doing far, better among whites than Obama—about as well as Gore. Those tallies would have been a deadheat a decade ago, but now result in a comfortable Democratic win."

"The pace of demographic change in Florida should alarm Republicans. Think about it like this: Kerry lost Florida by 5 points in 2004. Then, Obama did 10 points worse among whites. All of this was countered and overwhelmed by demographic change and an improved showing among non-whites. Kerry’s performance among white voters would have yielded a 7-point win in 2012—12 points better than his 5 point defeat in 2004."

The Cuban-American vote used to be extremely R-leaning in view of the Cold War. (See also Chinese-Americans and Korean-Americans). The perception of a Communist threat has weakened among all Americans, but especially among those who had ties to Communist-dominated states.   

[pbrower2a]

Ted Cruz looks as if he could lose about as badly as Barry Goldwater did in 1964. Florida was one of Goldwater's 'eighth-best' state that year, and he still lost it 51-49.

Florida is a genuine swing state now, probably slightly more R than the US as a whole, but it did decide 2000.

I have been slow to give binary challenges between Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz, but I have seen an unflattering pattern for Cruz. He seems to do worse than just about anyone. Sure he has fervent supporters, but he has turns even more people off.

I don't know how to predict how a 52-36 split would go in Florida. Even if 3/4 of the undecided went to the eventual loser (which is an extremely generous assumption on my part) one would end up with a 55-45 split of the vote. That is roughly how Ronald Reagan won the state in 1980.