IA-PPP: Clinton trails Cruz and Rubio, leads Bush, Fiorina and barely tops Trump (user search)
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  IA-PPP: Clinton trails Cruz and Rubio, leads Bush, Fiorina and barely tops Trump (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA-PPP: Clinton trails Cruz and Rubio, leads Bush, Fiorina and barely tops Trump  (Read 5614 times)
pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,854
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« on: December 19, 2015, 01:32:45 PM »

You do realize that polls now are going to skew Republican? All the drama and attention is on the chaotic Republican primary. The misleading attacks against Obama and Clinton are getting much more attention than the snoozefest that is the Democratic primary.

Right at the end of the 2004 Democratic primary, Kerry led Bush by around 5 points, after the Bush bashing fest that occurred in the primaries.

Good point. The Republicans are going to leave Iowa, and the smears against prominent Democrats from Republican pols who have no connection to Iowa will end in Iowa. The Republican Governor and the junior Senator will be millstones for the Republican nominee in Iowa due to their unpopularity. Democrats have good networks in place in Iowa and that will translate into a strong GOTV drive.

The example of John Kerry shows how not to campaign. 
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pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,854
United States


« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2015, 06:17:56 PM »
« Edited: December 20, 2015, 10:39:54 AM by pbrower2a »

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The optimum for any state for a Presidential nominee in a swing state is that the nominee can take advantage of the popularity (as defined as 'approval') by making shared appearances of the Governor.  For a Democrat this might apply to Colorado and Virginia; for a Republican this might help in Ohio. Governors of Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, and Wisconsin will be of no such help to a Republican nominee. 

Here are some approval polls on a national map of approval of incumbent governors. With caveat that this observation does not apply to non-swing states (thus Republicans are not going to win Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, or Washington; Arizona is at best on the fringe of competitiveness for a Democrat and Kansas is a pipe dream), Republicans look to have some problems:



A positive approval rating under 45% is treated as a tie.

blue -- Republican incumbent with positive or neutral approval
20% --  tie (less than 1%) or positive approval under 45%
40% --  approval 45 - 49%
50%  -- approval 50 - 54%
60%  -- approval 55 - 59%
80% -- approval over 60%

green --  Republican incumbent with negative approval

20% --  approval 45 - 49%
40%  -- approval 40 - 44%
50%  -- approval 35 - 39%
80% --  approval under 35%


red --Democratic incumbent with positive or neutral approval
20% --  tie (less than 1%) or positive approval under 45%
40% --  approval 45 - 49%
50%  -- approval 50 - 54%
60%  -- approval 55 - 59%
80% -- approval over 60%

orange --  Democratic incumbent with negative approval

20% --  approval 45 - 49%
40%  -- approval 40 - 44%
50%  -- approval 35 - 39%
80% --  approval under 35%

No governor, governor in transition,  or non-partisan governor -- white.

Positive approval under 45% -- (now treated as if a tie).

The newest poll takes precedence, but no internal polls or polls commissioned by a partisan entity, trade group, or union.
  
 * -- appointed Governor.
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