Virginia's margin will be as large or larger than Wisconsin's in this election. It is the fastest trending state in the country in terms of a) actual vote share and b) the demographics moving into it actually translating into present/future votes (white D-leaners, upscale Asian D-leaners, blacks, etc). Trump ain't winning it unless he's ahead by 3 or more nationally.
So you think PA will be the tipping point state, right?
If interpolation (estimating between values) is risky, extrapolation of a trend is just incredibly risky. In accounting, CPA firms do not endorse forecasts of earnings or securities prices. There's just too much that can go wrong.
So let us look at these two states:
State A gave the Republican nominee for President 45.16% of its vote in 1948, and 58.93% of its vote in 1952, and 64.56% of its vote in 1956.
State B gave the Republican nominee for President 39.19% of its vote in 1948, and 56.33% of its vote in 1952, and 53.68% of its vote in 1956.
One could have reasonably expected both states to be trending Republican over time, right?
Wrong. State A is Utah, and State B is Minnesota. Utah went for a Democratic nominee for President only once since then, and Minnesota has gone only once for a Republican nominee for President since then. Nixon got 54.81% of the vote in Utah, and 49.16% in Minnesota, in 1960.
The Republicans took over in Utah politics around 1950 and stayed in charge. Ike was simply the best match that the Republicans ever had for Minnesota and Stevenson was a very poor match for Minnesota. Such an observation is possible in hindsight when one sees statistical trends beyond three events.
So is Virginia "State A or "State B" this time?
- 2004 - 2008 - 2012
A 49.1 - 56.9 - 53.0
B 45.5 - 52.6 - 51.1
(the percentages are of the Democratic share of the vote in the Presidential elections in those years).
You tell me this time which state has the overpowering, irreversible D trend. It could simply be that Barack Obama is the best cultural match for Virginia since Harry Truman.
A hint: one is New Mexico, and the other is Virginia. Both states are very different in their demographics and political heritage. The states are even more dissimilar than Minnesota and Utah in demographics. Until November we do not know whether the 2008 and 2012 elections mean anything more in 2016 than how the states went in 2008 and 2012?
...So which state do I think will be the tipping-point state? From 1988 to the present they are:
MI 1988
TN 1992
OR 1996
FL 2000
OH 2004
IA 2008
CO 2012
Try to find a pattern in those states.
I see a range of possible scenarios from a bare Trump win to an overwhelming Clinton landslide. In a bare Trump win (just over 270 electoral votes) , the closest of his wins is likely the tipping-point state. In a bare Clinton win (just over 270 electoral votes), then the closest of her wins could easily be the tipping-point state. If she gets about 300 electoral votes (analogous to Truman in 1948 or Kennedy in 1960), then her tipping-point state is close to her margin of victory. A median win (for which there is only one analogue since 1900, and that was 2012; I see that as one of the most unlikely results), it is one of several states that wise people thought she had to win one of among three or four to have a chance to win and Obama won three or four such states) -- which would likely be one of Colorado, Florida, Ohio, or Virginia. A near-landslide analogous to one of the two BILL Clinton wins or Obama 2008 -- and it is a state deep in the pack, probably close to her margin of victory. That could be an unusual and unlikely win for her (South Dakota?) or a state that does not swing much (Minnesota?)
Democrats have the edge in the Electoral College because they have advantages in the states with the largest numbers of electoral votes. The biggest states in electoral votes that Mitt Romney won were Texas (38), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Arizona and Indiana (11 each). Florida and Ohio are about neutral, and Obama won both of them... but the biggest five other states that Obama won in the Electoral College in 2012 were California (55), New York (29), Illinois and Pennsylvania (20 each), and Michigan (16).
