Quinnipiac: Clinton leads FL, PA, NC, Trump leads OH (user search)
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  Quinnipiac: Clinton leads FL, PA, NC, Trump leads OH (search mode)
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac: Clinton leads FL, PA, NC, Trump leads OH  (Read 5088 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: October 04, 2016, 09:45:26 AM »

These numbers are unrealistic when considered together.
They show that pollsters are unsure about the turnout model.

Since the coming election will be a low turnout election - essentially the war of the bases, the election results will depend mostly on whose voters show up to vote.

Due to this, it will be difficult to poll the electorate accurately and we will not be sure that even the final polls will give us the right picture.


Until now, Quinnipiac has been very friendly to Republican candidates. Without a switch in methodology, polls that don't look so good for Republicans may indicate a change, and not for the better. These polls may show a Trump collapse underway, and polls under that circumstance are unstable because the situation is itself unstable.

If this will be a low-turnout election, then which potential voters will fail to show up at the polls? If the stay-at-homes are Republicans, then Hillary Clinton wins and Republicans take a beating in the Senate races. 
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