Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[pbrower2a]

The question at the end is often which electorate model is valid. Which people vote -- or do not vote?

One way to win what would otherwise be a close election is to campaign with the objective of demoralizing the opposition. Thus the campaign tries to make voting seem futile. ":It's not your turn". "We have the money and that is all that matters in politics".  "Only losers  vote for your nominees".  Or "Admit it now -- your candidates either are crooks or don't know what they are doing -- we know better than you what is best for you".

This time we have a President that many Americans thoroughly hate. We have never had that. We have had failed Presidents like Hoover, Carter, and Dubya, but nobody for which the contempt is so strong.

Even with the caveat that who votes matters, any large new constituency (let us say young people with a new political culture), any migration of voters in large numbers (let us say from California to Arizona or Texas), the dying-off of a generation (such as voters of the New Deal era as they got very old), or any large group of people that changes its pattern of voting (think of Mormons as Eisenhower cultivated them in the 1950s or well-educated people in the latter part of the Double-Zero Decade),

Donald Trump and the GOP did an excellent job in 2016 not so much in selling what would eventually be a failed Presidency and a dubious agenda but in demoralizing the usual voters for the Democratic Party.  What he cannot do in 2020 will be to run from a record of failure -- including either stagflation or an economic meltdown.   

 

I like your detailed posts, pBrower, but what exactly will Democrats’ plan be if the economy is still humming in 2020? American people don’t like to think too much, so I think you’d have a hard time convincing them that an incumbent with a good economy is a “failure.”

BTW, if you’re getting tired of hearing this question, just know that I’m just as tired of asking it. It’s just that nobody on Atlas can give me an answer on it without calling me a nazi idiot.

Democrats will go after the cruelty, corruption, and incompetence of the Trump regime.  Tying President Trump to his pointless liaison with a bloodthirsty, kleptocratic dictator will be easy. Most Americans prefer democratic leaders abroad.

The big risk is to bet on the economy humming along. The world economy has been an intricate machine -- a cell phone instead of an abacus. One can repair an abacus, but not a cell phone beyond its casing. One buys a new cell phone.

But if the President's tariffs create a trade war? We have to replace the cell phone, and not simply repair an abacus. People not intended to be victims will be victims of generalized stagflation (Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter lost due to that, and it took Ronald Reagan to impress on many the need to lower their expectations, working harder and more for less to undo the stagflation)... and Reagan was successful. But Trump has shattered even 'Reaganomics' as an assumption. Reaganomics meant that people with college degrees who hated the low pay in the jobs that they got out of college as retail clerks to simply get another job as perhaps a fast-food counter-person, which rally did increase income. Those college graduates may have still hated their lives until they got jobs as clerk-typists or bartenders, but the economy improved because more was being produced. 

With Trump we have a situation that the rest of the world can simply expect to wait out. Foreign powers have decided to make some usual Republican constituencies pay for voting for Trump -- including farmers and ranchers who have enough numbers in some swing states of 2016 (MI, PA, and WI) on their own to swing Rust Belt states Democratic by voting 50-40 R instead of 70-30 R. "Farmer  and rancher" is still one of the largest occupations in America. If they go 50-50 R, then the Republican party loses a raft of states that they usually win, as well as Iowa.

Having to pay $2000 for an iPhone instead of $1000 while wages are stagnant will not go well with many Americans. Add also prices of aftermarket parts for imported cars or cars manufactured with imported parts, and automobile collisions will become more expensive. That will be reflected in insurance premiums.

Stagflation allowed Jimmy Carter to become President and caused him to lose his re-election bid. Trump will be the cause of any stagflation (which American somehow consider more objectionable than a transitory recession) that will doom his regime. I hate to use the word regime, but we are no longer in normal times in view of the incessant, mean-spirited  demagoguery of this President. 

[pbrower2a]

Oregon -- Clout Research. Trump favorability, 44-53. It is favorability, so it is apples to oranges and I am not using it on the map. Oddly, the Republican has a chance to win the Governorship from an incumbent Democrat.

http://cloutpolitical.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2018/08/OR-Statewide-Poll-Final-Topline-Report-8-1-2018.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Arizona -- Politico/AARP:

Another poll suggesting that Arizona is not going the Trump way. 44 approval, 54 disapproval, indistinguishable statistically from what I have already seen in the state. Arizona voters over 50 are more sympathetic to Trump and on the whole would vote for them -- but that is a whiter and richer demographic. The fast-growing Hispanic sector of the electorate is younger than the average, which I suspect is the difference. 

[pbrower2a]

Reagan took some early heat for economic policies that inflected early pain by compelling people to lower their expectations and work more for less but produce prosperity that would trickle down and keep prices from going into the stratosphere (Hey college grad with a job that you think suitable only for a high-school drop-out but still doesn't allow you a living -- take another such miserable job and always remember to smile even if you hate your life!) The result was stable prices and that America got good workers in restaurants and retailing.  Eventually many of those degreed young adults decided that it wasn't so bad to drive a truck or do factory work.

But Reagan-era hardships brought about the end of stagflation  by causing pay to stagnate while profits soared.  Such prosperity as tricked down trickled through second jobs and not through higher wages.

Donald Trump has offended so many sensibilities that he has approval ratings around 40 nationwide and nothing even mediocre in any conceivable swing state from 2004-2016.

[pbrower2a]

Alaska. Lake Research Partners for Daily Kos and a Democratic candidate.

It's a favorability poll, so I can't use it. Trump favorability, 45-53. That is still bad no matter how one cuts it in a state that has gone only once in existence (1964 in the LBJ blowout of Goldwater). It also has a performance question of the excellent-good-fair-poor measure, but even the combined "excellent" and "good" combines to 42 while "poor" is at 44% and "fair" is at 12%.  Because "fair" can suggest simple mediocrity, I can't map this, either. It is two months old, so I might have missed it on the now-archived  "Ratings 1.3".

https://www.scribd.com/document/385563989/AK-AL-Lake-Research-Partners-for-Alyse-Galvin-I-June-2018

The focus of this poll is on the at-large Congressional seat held by long-term Representative Don Young, These questions and their responses suggest trouble for him and may suggest that President Trump is himself in trouble in Alaska:

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Alaska has no Senate race this time, but an at-large Congressional race is relevant.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1026559859645394944

Holy crap

That is a considerable discrepancy. I wonder what an electoral map would look like in 2020 if these respective groups voted along those lines. Given polarization, I know that won't happen, but it would be interesting to see regardless.

At this point I almost expect a conservative alternative to Donald Trump to appear, even if only as a vanity campaign. It might do astonishingly well in picking off conservative votes. Democrats could end up with a 51-43-6 split of the Presidential vote.

[pbrower2a]

Rhode island, WPRI-TV, Roger Williams University. We see few polls of Rhode Island, and it is reasonably assumed to be out of reach by any but statewide Republicans, Unfortunately this is an Unfortunately this is an "electric green fluorescent pudding" poll. Trump gets only 37% approval here, with 44% poor and 18% 'fair', whatever one means by 'fair'.   Cut the 'fair' in half and you get 46-53

[pbrower2a]

The polls should be coming in very steadily as primary elections conclude.

[pbrower2a]

Maine: Suffolk University

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The incumbent Governor, a Republican, is down 37-52 in favorability...  which suggests that Maine voters are tiring of abrasive right-wing pols. There is no split between districts on the views of the President. It is still conceivable that Donald Trump could hold onto the single electoral vote of ME-02, but the state that barely went against him in 2916 looks as if it has drifted out of contention.

https://www.suffolk.edu/news/77646.php

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  

[pbrower2a]

Gallup weekly

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

This is the first approval below 40 in this poll since April 22 (38/57).

Trump is about 6% behind Obama eight years ago. Obama was a good enough politician that even with a constant barrage of cat-calls by the Tea Party critics he was able to transform a 45% approval rating into a 51% share of the binary vote nationwide in 2012. That was enough to win 332 electoral votes, although 29 of those (Florida) were shaky in the last week.

Should Trump do as well in parlaying his approval rating into electoral support (by adding 6% to his approval rating), he ends up with 45% of the popular vote.  That will not be enough unless the Democrats rift -- a possibility, but one less likely than the 'conservative' vote rifting. 45% of the vote share is about what Dukakis got in 1988, and decidedly less than Kerry got in 2004, McCain in 2008, and Romney in 2012.

The cat-calls against Donald Trump may be more civilized, but I see them no less effective.

I can't really show you what a 55-45 split of the popular vote looks like for a Republican. I can show it for Dukakis:



428-111 for the elder Bush.

OK, Trump will win West Virginia, which is about as R now as it was D in 1988. America has been so polarized  regionally that Obama would have gotten at most 379 electoral votes had he gotten 55% of the popular vote in 2008.  Strange things start to happen as one gets away from a near 50-50 split of the popular vote -- mostly that unlikely states swing wildly in one direction. 

The 56% disapproval rating suggests a ceiling of 44% (100-DIS)  of the popular vote for President Trump. This is consistent with my polling map.

President Trump is not as astute a campaigner as Obama.

[pbrower2a]

CNN/SSRS, August 9-12, 1002 adults (change from June)

Approve 42 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Reaffirms that Trump has seen almost no movement since March. Pretty boring actually.

Maybe this is just the new normal in a very polarized political climate? I could see a Democratic president (no recession) being between 45% and 51% for most of time in the 2021-2025 term after a very brief honeymoon with approvals in the low 60s.

That's what it was with Obama. That President will solve some problems early by undoing Trump damage, but after that swing voters will go back to their old habits.

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota: Emerson University:

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https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf

Not changing the map for this one poll, as it changes little. I anticipate other polls, though, this week.


Tennessee -- Gravis

Trump approval 54- 41

Do you remember when Tennessee was the most progressive state in the South? That's over even if you no longer consider Virginia 'Southern'.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Minnesota: Emerson University:

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https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf

Not changing the map for this one poll, as it changes little. I anticipate other polls, though, this week.


Tennessee -- Gravis

Trump approval 54- 41

Do you remember when Tennessee was the most progressive state in the South? That's over even if you no longer consider Virginia 'Southern'.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

When??

The 1950s and 1960s. It's completely accurate to describe TN from that period that way.

Interesting. I'd love to learn more. Is it because of the New Deal and its affects on TN politics?

Yes. Without the New Deal and the Tennessee Valley Administration, Tennessee might be as poor as Mississippi. It is worth remembering that the state is home to Al Gore.

[pbrower2a]

Trafalgar Group
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1odR1vw2PmB2oArwqKL0dl1cJrEGB0tiE/view
Conducted 7/31-8/7/18
1,420 Respondents
Likely 2018 General Election Voters
Margin of Error: +/- 2.6

Approve: 47
Disapprove: 50

Note that this is Indiana only (not national approval).

I predicted that as the primaries were completed, there would be more approval polls. Indiana gives a result so stunning that it demands inclusion.

If his disapproval is at 50% in Indiana, then he could lose Indiana. This suggests a landslide win for a Democratic nominee in 2020.

The Senate election has Donnelly, the incumbent Democrat, at 50%. President Trump could be hurting Republicans even in Indiana.

Indiana never decides a Presidential election by itself. Know well, though: a Republican has not win the Presidential election when winning Indiana by less than 10%. Indiana is more rural than other states in the Great Lakes region, but President Trump's tariffs can't be helping.

Now I can add the approval polls for Minnesota and Tennessee without doing so for only one state.     

Minnesota: Emerson University:

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https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf

Not changing the map for this one poll, as it changes little. I anticipate other polls, though, this week.


Tennessee -- Gravis

Trump approval 54- 41

Do you remember when Tennessee was the most progressive state in the South? That's over even if you no longer consider Virginia 'Southern'.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Trafalgar Group
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1odR1vw2PmB2oArwqKL0dl1cJrEGB0tiE/view
Conducted 7/31-8/7/18
1,420 Respondents
Likely 2018 General Election Voters
Margin of Error: +/- 2.6

Approve: 47
Disapprove: 50

Note that this is Indiana only (not national approval).

I predicted that as the primaries were completed, there would be more approval polls. Indiana gives a result so stunning that it demands inclusion.

If his disapproval is at 50% in Indiana, then he could lose Indiana. This suggests a landslide win for a Democratic nominee in 2020.

The Senate election has Donnelly, the incumbent Democrat, at 50%. President Trump could be hurting Republicans even in Indiana.

Indiana never decides a Presidential election by itself. Know well, though: a Republican has not win the Presidential election when winning Indiana by less than 10%. Indiana is more rural than other states in the Great Lakes region, but President Trump's tariffs can't be helping.

Now I can add the approval polls for Minnesota and Tennessee without doing so for only one state.    

Minnesota: Emerson University:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-mn-8.11-pr.pdf

Not changing the map for this one poll, as it changes little. I anticipate other polls, though, this week.


Tennessee -- Gravis

Trump approval 54- 41

Do you remember when Tennessee was the most progressive state in the South? That's over even if you no longer consider Virginia 'Southern'.

http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Tennessee-August-12-2018-v2.pdf

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  

[pbrower2a]

I think the key difference between Trump and previous presidents is the intensity of disapproval among those who don't like him.  It would be interesting to compare strong approval/disapproval as well as overall approval/disapproval.

President Trump has been adept so far in insuring that the people who hate his new policies are the ones who hated his earlier policies. There has never been a President since Lincoln who has inspired so much and such widespread, visceral hatred as he has. With Lincoln it was at least on behalf of abolishing slavery. With Trump it is all about enriching, pampering, and enforcing the will of economic elites at the expense of all else.

There are polls that give "strong" approval and disapproval. Occasionally I have seen polls with letter grades (A, B, C, D, F) that have similar suggestions.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan: favorability poll from "Strategic National":

Do you have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump?

Very favorable 32%
Somewhat Favorable 11%
no opinion 6%
Somewhat Unfavorable 10%
Very Unfavorable 42%

(I do not put favorability races on my map)

Gubernatorial race: Whitmer (D) 45% Schuette (R ) 36%
Senatorial race: Stabenow (D) 50% James (R ) 35%


http://strategicnational.com/michigan-statewide-general-election-poll/

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire: Praecones Analytica for the NH Journal.  Aug. 13-15, 626 registered voters (landline IVR + online)

Approve: 41
Disapprove: 54

GCB: D 44, R 41

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, how likely would you be to vote to re-elect Donald Trump?

Very likely 36
Somewhat likely 5
Somewhat unlikely 7
Not at all likely 50

I know it's never a good mindset to just assume the next election is a given, but I'm finding it difficult to see how Trump wins 2020 if he keeps getting polls like this. Not only has he permanently alienated basically everyone who didn't vote for him, which is already more than enough to lose by a 2008-level margin, but he's also been shaving a few points off his original base of support, which would bring him closer to double digit loss territory.

He actually has higher favorables than he did on election night 2016, when he was in the 30s. The key is (1) timing is everything. We saw that when the Comey Letter was released 11 days before election day. A poll over 2 years out says nothing. If he gets a poll like this 2 days out, then yeah, he's in trouble. But there's a big difference between a year and a day. (2) He will be running against an actual opponent. An election is not a referendum on Trump but a choice between two people. Of course it's easy to say you're dissatisfied with him because in your mind, you've got the image of a perfect, ideal leader who doesn't exist. They don't exist because in everyone's mind, that perfect, ideal leader is different. But it's not until that ideality manifests itself that this becomes apparent.

The typical response to a bad poll for any politician on the wrong side of that poll is something like "the only poll that counts is the election result". True. But at this point the current President is doing little that can get himself re-elected. His inadequacies and his disconnect from the electorate is severe.

What part of "I will definitely not vote for him" can be interpreted as "but I will vote for him in 2020"?

He will need miracles at this stage for getting re-elected. Sure, he got elected once, but the polls suggest a bitter disappointment. So what can he do to get re-elected?

1. He can have an international crisis that goes well for him. I doubt that. Democrats are going to fault him for the pretext, and there will be protests of any unjust war. America's usual allies are much less likely to support a President that most world leaders recognize as a liar and provocateur. This President has a poor relationship with the Armed Forces.

2. He can have a spectacular boom by spurring investment in a bubble -- but where? Housing? Dubya sponsored such a boom, and look what that did. He tried infrastructure, but his first effort was to use the Treasury to sweeten deals for privatization. Nobody wants new tolls on old roads except those who collect the tolls.

3. He can somehow change the cultural climate to better fit his ideology.  Well, name a President successful at that! To be sure, America took a sharp turn to the Right between the late 1970s and the mid-1980s, much of it the result of the rise of the Religious Right. If there is any tendency in changes of moral values it is on firearms, economic equity, and the environment... and that is bringing Americans closer to Pope Francis than to Jerry Falwell. Donald Trump is a godless man, and he is the wrong person to ride any religious trend.

Before you say "Lincoln" -- the Civil War made Northerners hostile to slavery. FDR? He found solutions, often brilliant, and there were never any clearer villains of history than the gangsters who then ruled Germany, Italy, and Japan.

4. The Democrats can nominate someone so flawed that he or she can make Donald Trump look good by contrast. ...Who? Someone now in prison? Bernie Madoff? Phillip Gallardo (kidnapper and rapist of a girl)? Scott Peterson? Someone part of the Manson family? The spy  Aldrich Ames? Drug-lord Larry Hoover?

OK, I am going overboard on that.

5. He can cheat. That might be more effective than anything else. Unlike the first three, it is consistent with his character.

[pbrower2a]

What part of "I will definitely not vote for him" can be interpreted as "but I will vote for him in 2020"?

Easy to overinterpret.

a) These people might stay at home.
b) These people might end up hating the democratic candidate even more.
c) These people might vote third party or write-in a candidate.
d) Voter suppression.
e) Last minute partisan come-together.
f) A LOT of people actually said they would never vote for Trump in 2016, but still ended up doing so.

I'm not saying that Trump is winning. He really shouldn't be winning with numbers like these, especially not if the democratic candidate is someone electable. But complacency/overconfidence remains the democrats worst enemy. In 2016, democrats on this forum and elsewhere were all too happy to proclaim the race all over after Khan/McCain/Kovaleski/Kelly/Pussygate. That complacency alone cost us the election (hell, Comey probably wouldn't have sent the letter had he not been confident in Hillary winning). It shouldn't happen again.

a) which explains the need for get-out-the vote drives for all politicians. Voter participation, which had been unusually high in 2008 and only slightly less so in 2012, was unusually low in 2016.

b) the large number of potential of Democratic nominees is scary. It is usually easy to sort through the best, with the early front-runner getting caught in some personal sleaze and the Party coming to a quick and inept consensus. The biggest hazard to a challenger is someone who siphons votes from his own side of the political spectrum.

c) Democrats thought that votes for Gary Johnson and Evan McMullen would hurt Donald Trump even more. Trump was careful to avoid talking about the environment (at which he is an unmitigated disaster), privatization of the public sector (he spoke of infrastructure, which promised jobs, but really meant more layers of profit in everything anyone uses -- like high tolls on what are now free highways), tax cuts (although he ignored admitting that he would use tariffs essentially as sales taxes on many imports). Then there was dog-whistle bigotry. Trump is a rogue, but for many who voted for him he would be 'their' rogue.

d) It is tempting to shady pols, but it might not be effective this time. We can watch the midterm elections to see where Republicans lose any possible advantage from administering the elections.

e) I expect Republicans to get scared and decide that this is the last time for them to have any chance to replace the federal income tax with regressive sales taxes, eviscerate unions, privatize public assets to monopolistic profiteers, get Supreme Court justices who will outlaw abortion and even contraception and find ways to limit homosexual rights or even making voting contingent on tax-paying, income, or not collecting relief ... I see some of these Republicans scared of an FDR. 

I look at the polls and I almost see a first-term President losing as badly as Carter or Hoover. Trump is not Carter, who is not Hoover. I recognize a natural floor of 40% of the popular vote for even the most troubled incumbent.

Seeing Democrats vilify the personality of 'their' President could cause right-leaning people to 'circle the wagons'.
 
f) The big problem may be that as in 2016, Trump so sullies the political process that people decide that voting is not worth it.   

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire: Praecones Analytica for the NH Journal.  Aug. 13-15, 626 registered voters (landline IVR + online)

Approve: 41
Disapprove: 54

GCB: D 44, R 41

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, how likely would you be to vote to re-elect Donald Trump?

Very likely 36
Somewhat likely 5
Somewhat unlikely 7
Not at all likely 50

I know it's never a good mindset to just assume the next election is a given, but I'm finding it difficult to see how Trump wins 2020 if he keeps getting polls like this. Not only has he permanently alienated basically everyone who didn't vote for him, which is already more than enough to lose by a 2008-level margin, but he's also been shaving a few points off his original base of support, which would bring him closer to double digit loss territory.

It is only one small state in population, area, and electoral votes, but Donald Trump barely lost it in 2020.  This is not an outlier, in view of other polls of New Hampshire.  

This question suggests the possibility of a comparison to the question that Marist asked voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin on whether they would vote for or vote against re-electing Donald Trump in 2020. I will err on the side of caution in comparing the answer that  Praeconex Analytica gets for new Hampshire to what Marist gets for six other states,  adding the numbers for those who are 'very likely' or 'somewhat likely' to vote for Trump as the positive for him and only the 'not at all likely' number as 'voting against'. That is thus 41-50 as I interpret it.  If I am wrong I have the comparatively harmless error of underestimating how many people would vote against him. 41-57 could be right. In view of how wrong I got 2016, I err on the side against my partisan bias but I do not assume that apparent outliers are wrong.

Despite its small size and its location, New Hampshire has been a fairly good microcosm of America in politics of the recent past. It could have easily been the tipping point for Gore in 2000 (had one added the votes for Gore and Nader that year, Gore wins) and it was close to the tipping point (its electoral votes in the 260s for Obama in 2008). It was slightly more R than the US as a whole in 2016.

Donald Trump's record  is now a poor match for the political culture for New Hampshire. Note well: even if he has a solid base of support, his 'squishy' support is tiny. Democrats may need to consolidate the 'squishy' opposition. At this point, I project the President to lose New Hampshire 53-41-7, with 5 of the 7 going to conservative third-party opponents. I will be delighted to encourage conservatives who could never vote for the Democrat to vote Constitution, Libertarian, Reform, or ...whatever.    

Emerson, New Mexico -- Trump approval 35, disapproval 54.

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-nm-8.19.18.pdf

Gravis, Michigan: the only good news for Republicans is that Senator Gary Peters is not well known yet. This is also the first poll of Michigan after the August primary.

Trump approval 40, disapproval 55. Stabenow (incumbent Senator) and Whitmer (Democrat running for the open Governorship) have commanding leads at this point. Trump's tax reform (a/k/a give-away to economic elites) is unpopular (30-42). Repeal of same-sex marriage will not be a good proposition for Republicans (56-31 support for same-sex marriage). Non-discrimination against homosexuals? 57-26. Abortion ban? 51-31 against.  

Russia investigation? 47-43. Mueller investigation?  46-29. Ending, as Trump wants, the Iran deal that Obama got? 42-37. Border wall? 40 for, 50 against.

Michigan is beginning to look as if the bare Trump win in 2016 was a fluke. This state could easily be a double-digit loss for the President in 2020.

I'm holding off on putting these two polls on the map, as I expect more polls to come in in the middle of this week.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Michigan_(August_16_2018).pdf

Maine: PPP, Aug. 17-18, 529 registered voters

Approve 42
Disapprove 53

Maine voters do not like Kavanaugh, and they will be less likely to vote for Senator Susan Collins if she votes to place him on the Supreme Court bench.

No change on the map.

And finally the biggest electoral prize in the Midwest:

Illinois: Marist/NBC News, Aug. 12-16, 831 adults including 734 registered voters.

Approve 31 (strongly 19)
Disapprove 56 (strongly 43)

GCB (RV only): D 52, R 35

Oh. It's Illinois.



    

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections.  

[pbrower2a]

ARG monthly economic survey, Aug. 17-20, 1100 adults

Approve 36 (-1)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February (36/60).

...and this is BEFORE Co-hunter-fort.

Convictions of Cohen and Man O' Fraud  will little affect the polling of the President. He us at the point at which people who still support him are highly fanatical in their support. The sorts of people who voted for Trump and do not yet consider him a mistake are now small in number. I expect national polling numbers to revert to something near the all-time laws of 2018 and not get lower.

Many people admire rogues for getting away with what they do. 

[pbrower2a]

https://poll.qu.edu/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2564

Trump approval underwater 30-67.

Suffolk-MN:

40% Approve
54% Disapprove

Source

Texas: Marist/NBC News, Aug. 12-16, 970 adults including 759 registered voters

Among adults:

Approve 43 (strongly 30)
Disapprove 46 (strongly 36)

Among RV:

Approve 47 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 45 (strongly 36)

GCB (RV only): R 46, D 43

I'm using registered voters. One must register to vote.  People newly registering to vote in Texas  in the next two years will lean strongly D, I predict, so Texas is still trouble. for Trump  

Wisconsin: Marquette Law, Aug. 15-19, 739 registered voters

Approve 45 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 51 (strongly 43)

    

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin: Marquette Law, Aug. 15-19, 739 registered voters

Approve 45 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 51 (strongly 43)

#RedWave

Senate and Governor races showed very close on this too, I think. Looks like an outlier given the special elections there.

In 2016 the Republicans tried to grind down Democrats. I expect them to try exactly the same thing in 2018 because it worked well in 2016 -- and they really have nothing else.  They need Scott Walker as Governor if they are to have any reasonable chance of winning the state in the Presidential election of 2020.

The Trump victory began to emerge with such 'outliers'. Republicans will use threats such as "vote Democratic and get a recession" to get people to vote for Trump colleagues. 

[pbrower2a]

https://poll.qu.edu/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2564

Lamont (D) - 46
Stefanowski (R) - 33

Head-to-head, Lamont leads Stefanowski 53-37.

Malloy approval underwater 25-67.

Trump approval underwater 30-67.

[pbrower2a]

Think we'll see a huge Mollie Tibbets bounce for Trump over the next few weeks?

FoX News covered that story heavily while other news media were covering the conviction of Paul Man O' Fraud and the guilty plea of Michael Cohen.