Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[pbrower2a]

Wow! I can't believe how quickly the polls are coming in. Maybe some pollsters wanted to calibrate themselves on the  weekend before the verdict on Paul Man O' Fraud. This weekend we will see the results of the legal problems of Paul Man O' Fraud and (even worse) Michael Cohen, former personal lawyer to Donald Trump (and he will be a former attorney due to the felony conviction which will disbar him).

Pennsylvania: Marist/NBC News, Aug. 12-16, 713 registered voters

Approve 37 (strongly 25)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 42)

Casey +15, Wolf +14 in this poll

   

I'd love to see the re-elect/do not re-elect numbers for Pennsylvania as I have for AZ, FL, MI, MN, OH, and WI (NH is a different pollster)... but Marist did not poll that. It would probably be horrid.

Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[pbrower2a]

Why are Trumps numbers relatively strong in Western PA? I would’ve thought Pittsburgh and Erie would drag his numbers down there.

The not-so-urban part of western Pennsylvania is Appalachia, which has been an area of big gains for Republicans since the 1990s. As the coal seams get spent, the coal miners and their once-strong unions fade.

[pbrower2a]

Pew Research American Trends Survey, July 30 - Aug. 12, 4581 adults (change from Feb. -- this is a semiannual survey)

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (nc)

Strongle disapprove almost a majority

That is a huge level of discontent -- nearly half of the public considers him profoundly offensive without an economic downturn or a military debacle.

AP/NORC, Aug. 16-20, 1055 adults (change from June)

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 60 (+3)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

At this point, a majority of Americans are political dissidents. It is hard to imagine any President reaching this level of unpopularity so early in his Presidency. Many who held their noses and voted for Trump now regret that they can smell what they voted for, 24 hours a day and seven days a week unless they have and use passports.

[pbrower2a]

As a general rule I do not predict how polls will change. I comment after change -- perhaps about reaction to events, but especially after a collapse or miraculous rise. Putrid results in unlikely places (let us say a 45-51 approval rating in Kansas) should a be warning signal, and unusually good results in unlikely places (let us say 45-51 in Connecticut) should be causes for delight for a Republican President.  With President Trump, approval polls started mediocre and have largely stabilized at 'awful'. Barring freakish circumstances, he will need miracles to rescue his Presidency from defeat in his re-election bid. Whoops -- miracles are themselves freakish circumstances. 

I know what many say. First, we have the adage that the only poll that really matters is the electoral result. But voting relies heavily upon either identity or upon the perception of performance. A low approval rating indicates often  that one is either a poor match for the cultural climate (and, yes, that can change to the detriment of any politician -- and it rarely works in his favor!) or that he is not satisfying the electorate. Maybe he can't achieve his promises... or he is neglecting them. Another is that things are going spectacularly wrong -- military and diplomatic debacles, or a severe economic downturn.

Before someone tells us that Donald Trump is doing about as badly as Ronald Reagan did at roughly this time in 1982... Reagan was giving America harsh economic medicine that Jimmy Carter lacked the guts to do. The solution to stagflation is to get people to do more work, and to do it cheaper. So just to survive, people with crappy, low-paying jobs that the hated took second crappy, low-paying jobs that they hated  and got a little more income while keeping stores open more hours and staffing restaurants with people who in good times think such beneath them.

Real hourly pay may have fallen, but productivity rose. It was a raw deal, but one can't argue with the electoral results of 1984.

I doubt that Reaganomics would work similarly well in 2020 as it did in 1984. Trump economic policy is a muddle -- and then there is his foreign policy. Is Trump the new Reagan? Not in the least.   

[pbrower2a]

I do find it amazing how Bush's approval rating was over 20 pts lower than a guy who has all three networks and 2/3 cable networks talking scandal, impeachment, Watergate-style stories on him 24/7. In todays day and age, I see 44-50% approvals and I kinda shrug and say, "Meh". If it was 22% or 24%, then I'd be like, "Holy cow."

44% approval and 47% disapproval? An incumbent can win with that. Obama did, and he exemplifies what it takes -- a well-run, spirited campaign able to turn undecided voters into squishy support. A vote is just the same whether it comes from fanatical or squishy support. 44% approval and 52% disapproval? Nothing works. Campaign efforts such as canvassing backfire. Ad campaigns are either preaching to the choir or ludicrous failures.

If you are for Trump, then you must recognize how stable his ratings are at a low level.  I'm not saying that they will get worse after the Manafort conviction and the Cohen plea bargain; I think that he has gone as far down as he can. "Good news" will not be enough to rescue him. Change in the political culture? He's trying to force it through his loud campaign rallies. That does not work. With Ronald Reagan the change in political culture was the rise of Protestant fundamentalists who took on reactionary values in social and economic values that made the near-sweep of 49 states possible.

He has offended people on issues that have seemingly no connection -- reproductive rights, gun control, and the environment. He has not pitted them against each other; he has united them. His tariffs are likely to hurt the blue-collar workers that he picked off from Democrats in 2016 with vague promises of infrastructure, and perhaps farmers and ranchers who usually vote Republican out of a concern for taxes.
  
The Trump economic policy is nothing more than crony capitalism running amok, with high tariffs as a compensation for huge tax cuts for the Master Class.

Trump is not Obama. He's not Clinton or Reagan. His opponents think him horrible, and they are more numerous than those of Obama.

[pbrower2a]

I do find it amazing how Bush's approval rating was over 20 pts lower than a guy who has all three networks and 2/3 cable networks talking scandal, impeachment, Watergate-style stories on him 24/7. In todays day and age, I see 44-50% approvals and I kinda shrug and say, "Meh". If it was 22% or 24%, then I'd be like, "Holy cow."

It took Bush 2 terms of disasters to get there. Trump is little over a quarter through his first term

Actually, about a third. The economy has yet to melt down on this President, and there are not great numbers of body bags returning from an American war.

This President has a core support that seems to accept him no matter what he does, and that explains why he does not yet have disapproval below the high 30s nationwide at any time, and that his disapproval ratings are remarkably stable (if unusually high for a president after a year and a half).

[pbrower2a]

Harvard/Harris, Aug. 22-23, 1330 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 46 (+1)
Disaprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)

It always bothers me a bit that this poll never has any undecideds.

Strong approve and approve moving opposite is interesting though probably just MOE fluctuation

If it is more than coincidence, then it will appear over time.

For a politician in collapse, "strong approval" probably morphs in turn to "slight approval", "undecided", squishy approval", and in turn :strong disapproval:.  Few people make abrupt turns from fanatical support to fanatical rejection of a politician except in the wake of the most drastic events. Connecting the President to a murder (which I cannot see happening) or finding that he had solicited or accepted a bribe would be such. 

[pbrower2a]

SurveyMonkey, Aug. 22-24, 4362 adults including 3843 registered voters.  This is not the regular SurveyMonkey weekly tracker. 

[...]

Do you believe that Donald Trump’s campaign colluded with the Russian government to influence the 2016 presidential election?

Adults: Yes 49, No 46
RV: Yes 52, No 47


As you may know, President Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen claimed that Trump directed him to make illegal payments to two women to stay silent about affairs they had with Trump. Do you believe Cohen’s claims?

Adults: Yes 64, No 31
RV: Yes 67, No 30


Would you like to see Congress begin the process to impeach President Trump?

Adults: Yes 44, No 51
RV: Yes 44, No 53

According to the link provided, 10% of those who approve of Trump believe that his campaign colluded with Russia, 34% believe Trump directed Cohen to make the illegal payments, and 6% believe that Trump should be impeached. While you can still approve of the job someone is doing while also thinking their actions are illegal, it is interesting that over 1/3 of Trump supporters believe that he is, in fact, directing his subordinates to engage in illegal activities.

One of the fundamental rules of life is that the world  largely breaks down into two groups of people: criminals and non-criminals. I'm not going to subdivide the two between criminals who get away with what they do and those who don't or between people who never commit of a crime who are never convicted and the wrongfully convicted. But let's ignore those who get away with crimes (if they do the same or similar deed enough times they will be caught) and the wrongfully convicted  for this simple exercise.

If one is convicted of a crime, then practically all else becomes irrelevant. One's skills, hobbies, life experiences, sports loyalties, tastes, and vocational attainments no longer matter. For American non-offenders, people who have been overseas and those who have not, those who have college degrees and do not, people who are disabled and those who are generally clear categories.  Criminals are treated rightly as pariahs. We are free to do many things, but not to commit crime.

Colluding with a foreign power to influence an election is a very serious offense. People like Bierut, Gottwald, Rakosi, Groza, and Dimitrov who collaborated with the Soviet Union to install Communist governments that they led are now recognized in their countries as traitors. OK, Putin is not Stalin, but still, the Trump Presidency is more despotic or dictatorial than any earlier Presidency even without the pretext of wartime necessity.

If payments are illegal, then ordering their disbursement is illegal. It is a crime no matter who does it.

People who can excuse either may have the idea that if the President does a criminal act, then such is excused. It is not. The leaders that we elect represent us; they do not rule us. Those who can approve of the President yet acknowledge that he has done serious offenses effectively approve of dictatorship or despotism. 

[pbrower2a]

Huh weird that no one has posted the Reuters/Ipsos numbers for this week!

Disapprove: 56 (+3)
Approve: 38 (-5)

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/CP3_2/type/week/dates/20180301-20180828/collapsed/true

Hasn't Reuters been having a horrible D bias in their polls lately?

This might reflect the Man O' Fraud verdict  and the plea bargain of Michael Cohen. The change in the approval rating is huge, indeed outside the margin of error. The change in the level of disapproval is still within the margin of error.  

[pbrower2a]

I am surprised that there aren't more polls available this morning...

Connecticut, Gravis: 

approve 38, disapprove 58

32% approval rate among African-Americans? Fishy. There will be other polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Connecticut_(August_28_2018).pdf

Nevada: PPP, Aug. 20-21, 529 registered voters

Approve: 43
Disapprove: 53

Wisconsin: Suffolk, Aug. 18-24, 500 likely voters

Approve 41
Disapprove 53

Evers+2, Baldwin+8 in this poll.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania: Franklin & Marshall College, Aug. 20-26, 511 registered voters (change from June)

How would you rate the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

Excellent 18 (+1)
Good 20 (+2)
Fair 10 (-3)
Poor 52 (nc)

The excellent + good category is roughly the same as the most recent poll that anyone has taken of Pennsylvania for approval, and "poor" is very close to "strong disapproval". The word "fair" has ambiguity; you might be amazed at a 'fair' performance of a 7-year-old violinist or pianist, but you would be extremely disappointed to pay good money and hear only a 'fair' violinist or pianist. I am not sure that I can quite compare the Presidency to a concert performance, a stage act, or an athletic event.  

[pbrower2a]

I'm guessing that evangelical Christians are disproportionately represented among voters without college degrees. Evangelical Christianity looks hostile to college education in contrast to mainline Protestants and to Roman Catholics. People who can believe that the Earth was created in six literal days about 6000 years ago and that there was a literal worldwide flood are not likely to have much academic curiosity. If they attend post-secondary education, then it is eather strictly vocational in purpose or it is likely to end in a quick flunk-out.

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Trump got an impressive 70% disapproval amongst 18-29 year olds.

It's as if we have the six-year itch of a two-term Presidency in the second year. The sixth year corresponds to wave years for the opposing party -- Republicans enduring huge losses in the House and Senate in 1974 and  losing both Houses in 2006, and Democrats losing the Senate in 2014 before America became a near-single-Party dictatorship in 2016.

Maybe it is Republicans acting as if Democrats have no relevancy that rushes a Democratic wave in 2018.

[pbrower2a]

Florida: PPP, Aug. 29-30, 743 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Not much wiggle room there for the President. Governor Rick Scott behind despite using so much money? Interesting.

[pbrower2a]

West Virginia, Harper:

Focus is on the US Senate race, and Manchin is up 47-41.

Trump approval 63 to 36.

https://www.scribd.com/document/387422578/WV-Sen-Harper-Polling-R-for-35th-State-August-2018

[pbrower2a]

ABC/WaPo. 36%/60%

https://mobile.twitter.com/ABC/status/1035482435402833922

It looks like an outlier for now... but the significance of the conviction of Paul Manafort and (worse) the  plea bargain of Michael Cohen could be setting in. The President is shown to be involved with people who do very bad things on their own (Manafort) and inducing others to do illegal deeds on his behalf.

The ABC/Washington Post polling has typically been less flattering to the President than other polls, but the change from the last one is at the margin of error.  

Watch other polls for corroboration or refutation.

[pbrower2a]

Kansas: PPP, Aug. 24-26, 877 voters

Approve 51
Disapprove 44

The Democrat seems to have the advantage in the gubernatorial race.

West Virginia, Harper:

Focus is on the US Senate race, and Manchin is up 47-41.

Trump approval 63 to 36.

https://www.scribd.com/document/387422578/WV-Sen-Harper-Polling-R-for-35th-State-August-2018

Another state that's not very interesting in terms of Trump approval:

West Virginia: WV Metro News, Aug. 16-26, 404 likely voters

Approve 60
Disapprove 33

Note: Manchin is +8 in this poll.

Harper is a partisan poll. I'll go with WV Metro News.

Florida: PPP, Aug. 29-30, 743 voters

Approve 46
Disapprove 49

Not much wiggle room there for the President. Governor Rick Scott behind despite using so much money? Interesting.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[pbrower2a]

Well, maybe the WaPo poll wasn't an outlier after all.

IBD/TIPP, Aug 23-30, 902 adults (change from last month)


Approve 36 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Devastating, as this is a media outlet for people surely leaning to the Right. This is corroboration.

At this point, should nothing really change between  now and November 2020, President Trump should end up with less than 45% of the popular vote. No presidential nominee has lost by such a margin in a binary election since Mondale lost to Reagan. (I am not counting the two elections involving Bill Clinton, as those involved a strong independent nominee).

IBD/TIPP Approval by region-

Rural: 45% (-15)
Suburban: 35% (-7)

That's the only two mentioned in the poll. They didn't attach a link to their full study.

(link here)

https://www.investors.com/politics/trumps-approval-midterm-elections-ibd-tipp-poll/

...Take a look at the voting map by counties in the last three Presidential elections, and you will notice huge swaths of counties with deep blue coloration.  The exceptions are places with large African-American, Hispanic, or First Peoples populations and such an oddity as New England. Republicans win the farm-and-ranch vote. At this level of approval, they will nearly break even in rural America. Republicans need 60% of the rural vote to offset majorities of 55% or so for Democrats in urban areas even in such states as South Dakota and Alabama.

Farmers and ranchers are usually easy wins for Republicans because they are the easiest people  for federal, state, and local taxing authorities to treat them as cash cows. But cut their commodity prices, and no tax cut can offset such a loss. The trade war can cut their revenue, and tariffs will make farming costs rise.

Don't ridicule farmers and ranchers as hicks living in the past. They are connected to the rest of the world, and that includes the consumer economy. They are often well educated.

...on Suburbia -- suburban America is becoming legitimately urban. Suburbia used to have some rural character with single-family houses with real lawns and with crowded highways leading only to and from the jobs in the city centers. Infrastructure costs were low when the roads, sewers, and schools were new. That is over. As apartment blocks replace bungalows from the post-WWII suburban boom, once-lightly-traveled suburban streets must be expanded at considerable cost. Seventy-year-old school buildings once the pride of Suburbia are often rotting edifices in need of replacement. Sewers and water lines have approached the end of their useful lives. Suburbia once had low maintenance costs and low taxes. That is over. The older suburbs are legitimately urban.   

....the conviction by a jury of Paul Manafort, the plea bargain by Michael Cohen, and the petty treatment of the late Senator John McCain may be kicking in. The trade wars may be hurtful to America, but that has yet to set in. Such things are not forgotten.     

 

[pbrower2a]

Trump's approval is falling right now because he didn't properly honour McCain, even after his death.

Americans don't like such tasteless behaviour ...

Many Americans exemplify tasteless behavior whether in watching horrible television or owning McMansions. Maybe  Donald Trump's public displays of vulgarity helped connect him to a certain part of the electorate, people who get derided for lawn ornaments or being fans of 'professional' wrestling.

But (1) there are limits, and (2) sophisticated people typically have some limits on what they accept. Rude confrontations such as showing the middle finger or shouting "F--- you!" are ugly.

We now see a pattern of deficiency of character in this President. It has gone past "liberals" and well into the 'conservative" realm.     

[pbrower2a]

Atlas posters after two or three polls show a Trump bump--"Don't believe it!! They are outliers!!"

Atlas posters after two or three polls show a Trump fall--(Orgasmic moans)

This is a time of abnormal politics by the standard of any time in American history. We elected a demagogue who holds much in our political heritage, some of it basic to the system, in contempt. We now see the results.

Surely you notice that I watch the state polls. Those reflect how people see the President . Those can give the full measure of how people see him based on where people are. So far Donald Trump has not only had  low approval levels for this time in his first term as Presidency; he has thoroughly awful ratings of disapproval. Because there is yet no diplomatic or military disaster or economic collapse the President's ratings have been remarkably stable.

What the President does is often sick. He still has some support. Maybe people like his militaristic bluster, his scapegoating, his bad treatment of women, and his despotic style of management. Some people love to hear the President stick it to people who hold liberal and humanistic values.      

A fall in values for Donald Trump indicates that either something has gone wrong or that he has offended more people.  President Bone Spurs can deride an American who put Country First (his 2008 campaign slogan) while under the brutal custody of the commies in North Vietnam, where the KGB made frequent visits as consultants on pressuring Americans to break.

Behaviors that self-righteous, moralizing liberals saw as extremely hazardous are now showing consequences. If you contrast what the Hard Right offered as predictions about the behavior of Barack Obama in 2008 ("He pals with terrorists" as said Sarah Palin in her mangled diction) we find that much of it proved untrue. What we liberals said of Donald Trump as a person has proved true. If anything we didn't fully express how awful he would be.

A significant part of the Trump appeal is anti-intellectualism which exploits the contempt that some exploited, hard-working people with little formal education have for people who seem to not work as hard and to be happier. No, we are simply more learned in philosophy, psychology, science, mathematics, economics, history, and even business. We can see the Trump campaign as a disreputable hustle.

The results are coming in, and Trump is awful. So say the polls.

[pbrower2a]

WP: How big is the GOP’s Trump-can-shoot-a-guy-on-Fifth-Avenue caucus?

TL;DR: 12% to 20% of Americans.

In 1924, there were 290000000 voters and
 4 million of them were in the Klan. This figure also coincides with a literal interpretation of Hillary's "Basket of Deplorables" hot take.

You've got an extra zero in there.  There were about 29 million votes in the 1924 election, not 290 million (the U.S. population was only a little over 100 million at that time).

29 million Americans, four million of whom were members of a totalitarian fascist clique? They would have voted for an American Hitler.

America was ahead of Germany at the time... in a race to genocide. The Klan had much the same hatreds as the Nazis, except for adding Catholics.

David Curtiss Stephenson, Grand Dragon of Indiana, once said "I am the law in Indiana".

Thank God for Robert Mueller!

[pbrower2a]

I insisted upon corroboration before accepting a 36-60 approval poll... and we have it, more or less.

[pbrower2a]

Missouri

All adults
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 46%

Registered voters
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 46%
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/poll-high-profile-missouri-senate-race-locked-dead-heat-n906001?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

A subsequent poll  from Q has Trump approval at 47-51 in Florida.

I go with registered voters at this stage over 'adults' because registered voters have done something to show a willingness to vote. Missouri went 56-38 for Trump in 2016, so the state looks as if it will be in contest in 2020 as it was in 2008.  The closest state that I can think of to Missouri in its Presidential politics as an analogue is Georgia. Missouri has a large share of fundamentalist or evangelical Christians outside of the two giant urban areas (St. Louis and Kansas City), portions of which are in Missouri, that combine to be about as politically important in Missouri as Atlanta is in Georgia. To win the state, Trump must win the vast majority of the Undecided. With the large number of fundamentalist and evangelical Christians (President Trump's one reliable demographic of voters, as he might be unable to rely upon the farm and ranch vote), such is obviously possible. Note well: opinions on whether the tariffs will hurt or help the American economy are split in Missouri. St. Louis is a one of the best analogues... to Detroit.  

Missouri is far enough from the national average on the R side that it cannot determine whether Trump wins or loses a re-election bid. See also Indiana and Montana.

Focus on this poll is the Senate race involving Claire McCaskill D, inc), who is vulnerable. It is even, but the Democratic incumbent has an edge if third-Party alternatives are included.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[pbrower2a]

Trump's approval has been surprisingly strong in Florida (relative to his national numbers) from a number of pollsters.  Anyone have a theory as to why this is so?

Maybe it's because it's more suburban and thus more of a natural right-wing constituency. The poorer, more rural states where the GOP has gained in the past few years aren't really natural for the Republican Right.

Florida simply has a high floor for Republicans and a low ceiling for Democrats, That's how it has been for a very long time. In 1964, in the LBJ blowout, Florida barely went for LBJ. Yes, the demographics are different from what they were in the 1960s, but Florida attracts lots of elderly people. The elderly tend to be conservative because the poor, who tend not to be conservatives, are less likely to reach old age than the middle class or the rich.

[pbrower2a]

For polls showing the President's disapproval in the high 30s  and only the low forties in the last week or so, it would seem that the great majority recognize the seriousness of the Mueller probe after the Manafort conviction and the plea bargain of the President's former personal lawyer. What is amazing is polls showing disapproval ranging from 50 (which is very bad) to 60.

It is practically impossible to win re-election with a disapproval number over 50. Sure, the President
At 60? How many 9's in the probability against winning are there?

Grinnell College/Selzer & Co., Aug. 29 - Sep. 2, 1002 adults including 779 likely voters

Among adults:

Approve 39
Disapprove 50

Among LV:

Approve 43
Disapprove 50

LV's were also asked whether they would vote to reelect Trump:

Definitely vote to reelect Trump: 36
Consider someone else: 17
Definitely vote to elect someone else: 43

GCB (LV only): D 43, R 41

Sure, it is two years and two months from the 2020 Presidential election, and Trump devotees will give us such bromides as

(1) the only poll that counts is the election itself
(2) the Democrats could nominate a real turkey of an opponent
(3) two years is enough time in which to get things right
(4) the polls are unreliable outliers
(5) It's the economy, stupid!

The first is a commonplace saying among electoral losers. I've heard plenty of politicians asserting two weeks before the election that although behind 10%, saying that they can win. Polls will differ, and at times the one that one chooses to believe is the one that fits your agenda.

Trump is in trouble for reasons other than polling, and this shows in the polls.

The second? The Democrats have their quarterback controversy, but there is no huge ideological split among Democrats. To them, the personality of Donald Trump will matter far more than the comparatively minor ideological differences between them.

This will be settled, and the media will eliminate any Democrat with skeletons in his closet.

The third? Trump should be getting things right, at the least for the center-right part of the political spectrum. Ronald Reagan did that very well in 1984. Donald Trump has scandals of corruption and abuse of power, his foreign policy violates norms from Reagan to Obama by getting cozy with dictatorial regimes hostile to liberal democracy at the expense of liberal democracies.

The fourth? I stated the need for  corroboration of a 36-60 poll soon after the Manafort conviction and the  plea deal of Michael Cohen. Outliers happen, but seven or eight suggest real change in the situation.

Finally, the Trump economy is the result of the Obama recovery. Employers have been slow to hire and especially slow to raise wages, but that is over. The problem? His tariffs could make a mess of that by raising the cost of living for all, causing commodity prices to plummet, and raising the cost of doing business.  A tariff is effectively a sales tax on imports, so just ask yourself when you last bought a television, cell phone, stereo equipment, bone china, or clothing made in America. Those all get more expensive.  The increase in your car insurance alone will more than offset the tax cut that the GOP gave you.

Democrats could offer to get a small tax increase to offset the revenue from the tariffs that they will abandon.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No Senate race. Neighboring Minnesota and Wisconsin have senate races.

An Iowa poll would be interesting. Selzer is an excellent pollster.