If the suburbs start mimicing northern suburbs and the cities start mimicing northern cities, plus the hispanic vote grows, it could happen.
Hard to say when that will happen, though.
Obama wins Texas in 2012 in an Eisenhower-scale landslide. That assumes an effective first term and the likely failure of the GOP to find an opponent more charismatic. Incumbency gives even a poor President an advantage against a weak opponent. Look at 2004 -- and who expects Obama to be as much a disaster as Dubya?
What matters in Texas is not so much the size of the Hispanic population but instead the size of the Hispanic electorate -- and the youngest voters included a disproportionate number of Hispanics in 2008; that will continue in 2012. African-Americans in Texas are not leaving, and they are not going Republican.
