Comparing Obama 2012 to other re-election efforts against which to judge 2012, should Obama fit the patterns expected with similar success or lack thereof but fitting the partisan balances of the states:
Epic fail (the new Herbert Hoover, 1932):
Obama 59, GOP winner 479 (Maine is in yellow to reflect that the GOP candidate picks off one of the two congressional districts of Maine).
Very Poor (the new Jimmy Carter, 1980):
138 electoral votes if he wins California, 74 if he doesn't; California is shaky even without seismic stress.
Obama 74, GOP winner 464 with Obama
losing California Obama 128, GOP winner 410 with Obama
winning California Poor (George H.W. Bush, 1992):
Obama 174; GOP winner 364Marginal failure (Gerald Ford, 1976):
Obama 259, GOP winner 281 Victory that creates little confidence (George W. Bush, 2004)
Twilight Zone scenario (note the gray color for Colorado and Virginia!); script could have been written by Rod Serling. Republicans have lots of recriminations about dirty-dealings in Virginia and Colorado, both of which are decided in litigation in December. Conspiracy theories abound about this election.
Obama wins 281; GOP loser 257Bare-but-clean victory (Harry Truman, 1948):
Obama wins with 309 electoral votes, and
a third-party candidate picks off IN, OH, AZ for 41 electoral votes, and the
GOP candidate loses with 238 electoral votes. Weird, but it has to fit the style of 1948 somehow!
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Since 1912 no Presidential candidate has won between 304 and 364 electoral votes, inclusive. Taft's percentage of electoral votes in 1912 was about the same as Obama's; Teddy Roosevelt won about the same percentage of electoral votes in his 1904 re-election bid as did Clinton in 1996. This is an unlikely area for electoral results because someone in a position to lose 315 - 360 electoral votes is likely to take gambles that might barely win, barely lose, or make things far worse.
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Very successful (Bill Clinton, 1996):
Obama wins 376 electoral votes, the
GOP nominee loses with 162 electoral votes. (Obama picks up NW-01 and NE-02, explaining the yellow color for Nebraska)
Unqualified success (Dwight Eisenhower, 1956; FDR 1940):
457 electoral votes for Obama, about as everyone expects but the most partisan Republicans. The
GOP loser gets NE-03 (but loses Nebraska at large) and picks off 80 other votes (
81 total).
Epic success (Ronald Reagan, 1984; Nixon 1972):
525 electoral votes for Obama, and the GOP loser barely wins
13 electoral votes in Utah and Oklahoma. Highly unlikely, but the only people who don't see it coming are the most partisan Republicans. Obituaries are written about the Republican Party, only about half in jest.