Angus,
Asians are not Republicans. Nor are they trending Republican. Bush did worse then Bob Dole did among Asians. Considering that the consensus is that Bush will do much worse in the Muslim community, and his apparent hostility to the outside world, I think Bush will do even worse among Asians.
Secondly, democrats aren't going to ignore Hispanics like they did last time. Hell, Bill Richardson was/is a top tier choice for Veep. Despite Bush's efforts to woo Hispanics the new millions will still break Dem (but by possibly thinner margins).
The election of Arnold has helped democrats in the state. Gives them someone to demonize and fundraise and get all riled up about. Not to mention there is no Gray Davis making Dems look bad.
Bush won't break 5 million votes in California. Bush won't get within a million of Kerry.
hello kghadial,
always good to read your posts. a couple of points: I did not mean to suggest or have you infer that asians are trending republican. I simply stated the fact that they are among the most economically conservative and socially conservative demographics out there. (not that there are no asian republicans, as two very well informed asian republicans filled the "asians" thread with very interesting posts, I'm not sure if you were here yet.)
The hispanic paragraph was total speculation I admit. But the two most populous states in the union are 1/3 hispanic each. That amounts to eleven million in this state and about 7.5 million in texas. This demographic voted about twice as much to re-elect gov bush in 98 as compared to 94, and many speculate that nationwide he'll get more support this time than in 2000. I think it's a reasonable assumption. But you're right, Democrats can read and will attempt to counteract this. Like Asians, they tend to have much lower VAP voters, and like asians, those that do vote split about 65-70% or maybe a little less to the Dems.
You are exactly right about Arnold. Most of the right wing of the republican party wanted Davis to stay in and try to defeat him in 2006, and very little of the right wing of this party voted for Arnold (I think McClintock got over 10%, meaning some must have sold out to pragmatism). My guy came in around 14th of 162 in that special election, by the way. He was a far left republican who probably has more in common with the Libertarians, but who is a proud registered Republican who claims to support Bush.
Nevertheless, I haven't changed my original map since I posted it:
Bush 283
Generic Democrat 255
Have a nice day. 
Always good reading your posts angus,
I didn't mean that there are NO asian republicans, but that asians relative conservatism would have little affect on california's politics even if they had greater numbers
About Bush and Hispanics ...
The Texas economy during Bush's first Term was very good. Groups that tend to have high unemployment, like Hispanics, are predisposed to voting with their pocketbook so Bush got their vote in his reelection bid. Considering this, the fact that the unemployment rate is about 2% higher (considering the discouraged as well) than 3.5 years ago , and that Hispanics often are "last hired, first fired" it seems logical to me that their pained pocketbooks might make them less predisposed to be amused by bush
