UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Phony Moderate]

PanelBase (4/28-5/2)

CON: 47% (-2)
LAB: 30% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (NC)
UKIP: 5% (NC)
GRN: 2% (-1)

Labour gains but is still miles behind Tories who are comfortably ahead of Blair's 1997 popular vote results. It will be interesting to see how the Diane Abbott gaffe effects the polling.

It will affect the polling in the same way that BigotGate, the Prescott Punch etc did. That is to say that Labour's numbers won't crash but that it may have stalled any momentum we may have gained recently. Although a lot of people actually approved of the Prescott Punch so maybe that shouldn't be included.

[Phony Moderate]

Tony Blair says he is returning to politics.  What does this mean? Will he try to capture the leadership of the LAB party after a diasterous election result and Corbyn pushed out?  I assume this not possible with him not being a MP.  If so will he, assuming the LABs get hammered in the election, form SDP Mark II and try to form an alliance with LIBs?

Even if we get a 1931-style result next month he'd be lucky to beat Kendall's percentage in a leadership election.

[Phony Moderate]

So, things are heating up:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39787353

[Phony Moderate]

Well, it's the kind of thing that a certain orange-faced buffoon regularly comes out with. You know, the one that May invited for a State visit just days after he took office.

[Phony Moderate]

Well, I suddenly feel incredibly enthusiastic about voting Labour now (even if those figures are based on BS sub-samples).

[Phony Moderate]

We did that to a large extent in 2015. Hard to imagine us going much further up in Liverpool Walton, East Ham and so on. Both Jeremy Corbyn and Diane Abbott have a lot of Green vote in their constituencies to squeeze though.

[Phony Moderate]

I feel like the LibDems have a huge opportunity if they position themselves as the most pro-Remain party, and be the anti/weak Brexit faction. 48% of the country voted for Remain, that's a big constituency to tap into.

...that's exactly what they've done since June 24th...

[Phony Moderate]

Survation

CON: 47% (+7)
LAB: 30% (+1)
LIB: 7% (-4)
UKIP: 5% (-6)
Green: 3% (+1)

More following of the herd there. LOL at the Lib Dems being below their 2015 percentage though.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov poll of London, with changes compared to 2015:

Lab 42 (-2)
Con 36 (+2)
Lib Dem 14 (+6)
UKIP - 6 (-2)
Greens - 3 (-2)

The likes of Wes Streeting (Ilford North) would have a fighting chance on these figures.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov poll of London, with changes compared to 2015:

Lab 42 (-2)
Con 36 (+2)
Lib Dem 14 (+6)
UKIP - 6 (-2)
Greens - 3 (-2)

The likes of Wes Streeting (Ilford North) would have a fighting chance on these figures.

Do you have crosstabs for that? I couldn't see anything on the YouGov website.

I suspect that Labour will be holding up much better in Inner London than Outer London.

Saw it on Twitter; YouGov often don't put up crosstabs for a while.

[Phony Moderate]

Labour manifesto leaked: Jeremy Corbyn pledges to re-nationalise energy industry, railways and Royal Mail in draft document

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-manifesto-leaked-jeremy-corbyn-10396298

While these are all policies I support, it is really symptomatic of what is wrong with Labour at the moment. Outside of a very passionate core, these are absolutely not the kind of policies that really mean much to most people, and if these are the highlights of the manifesto, it pretty much shows how Corbyn is pandering to his own core support rather than talking about the issues that actually matter to most people's lives

In the case of energy I don't see why it wouldn't matter. Gas/electricity is something we need to survive on a daily basis; if Labour can paint it as a practical issue that will better people's lives (as opposed to nationalization for the sake of it) then I don't see the issue. Unfortunately though, we don't have a particularly good messenger as leader.

Incidentally, the Tories have just adopted an Ed Miliband-style policy of energy price freezes, a policy that was, once-upon-a-time, met with howls of 'Red Ed', 'Back to the 1970s', 'Marxism!' etc.

[Phony Moderate]

Labour manifesto leaked: Jeremy Corbyn pledges to re-nationalise energy industry, railways and Royal Mail in draft document

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-manifesto-leaked-jeremy-corbyn-10396298

While these are all policies I support, it is really symptomatic of what is wrong with Labour at the moment. Outside of a very passionate core, these are absolutely not the kind of policies that really mean much to most people, and if these are the highlights of the manifesto, it pretty much shows how Corbyn is pandering to his own core support rather than talking about the issues that actually matter to most people's lives

In the case of energy I don't see why it wouldn't matter. Gas/electricity is something we need to survive on a daily basis; if Labour can paint it as a practical issue that will better people's lives (as opposed to nationalization for the sake of it) then I don't see the issue. Unfortunately though, we don't have a particularly good messenger as leader.

Incidentally, the Tories have just adopted an Ed Miliband-style policy of energy price freezes, a policy that was, once-upon-a-time, met with howls of 'Red Ed', 'Back to the 1970s', 'Marxism!' etc.

Even a better (lol) leader like Ed didn't have much success with that sort of messaging though - people are always going to think about jobs, wages and things like that before thinking about the best way to specific industries that they don't even work in.

Labour don't have any sort of meaningful message on how they are going to do things like increase wages and control  housing costs. Also, beyond repeating words like "austerity" (which means little in practice to most people) they haven't explained exactly what their alternative to conservative free-market/neoliberal economics is, or why reversing spending cuts would be good for the economy and good for people's livelihoods.

Well these 'industries' are a part of all of our lives regardless of whether we work in them or not, as a large chunk of our wages are taken by them. Frankly they are a more central part of most of our day-to-day lives than the NHS (which of course most of us also don't work in), and the NHS currently comes out as the top issue (ahead of even Brexit) in the opinion polls.

Yes, 'austerity' might not mean much to the average Joe but then surely the word 'economy' doesn't either.

[Phony Moderate]

You'll find that the Prodigal Son, David, got the largest number of votes among both MPs and among the party membership. Ed only won through his support among affiliated supporters; something which was used as rather a bludgeon against him later, of course...

Yes i've edited my post upon finding this out.
And of course even if the blairites did have signifcant grassroot support in 2010 you'd have to be delusional to think this is true in 2017.

David Miliband got a lot of support because he was a figure of gravitas and experience and was both willing to and capable of appealing to people who weren't members of Progress. Liz Kendall, on the other hand, is to the Blairites what Diane Abbott is to the Hard Left.

[Phony Moderate]

Possibly the weirdest development in British politics over the last few years, and there is a lot of competition, is the recasting of David Miliband as the reincarnation of Jesus, Lincoln and Martin Luther King all rolled up into one, rather than the nice but wet blanket charisma vacumn that he actually was.

FBM, as in Flawless Beautiful Miliband.

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov: Con 49, Labour 31, LDem 9, UKIP 3, Others ??
ComRes: Con 48, Labour 30, LDem 10, UKIP 5, SNP 4, Greens 3
Opinium: Con 47, Labour 32, LDem 8, UKIP 5, SNP 5 Greens 2
ORB: Con 46, Labour 32, LDem 8, UKIP 7, Others ??

@GoodwinMJ
"Lib Dem support is down in all 4 polls this eve & below 10% in 3, with only 25 days left. Sorry but something has gone very, very wrong."

I expect the lib dems to make gains in the south west of London, but i dont know where will they make gains elsewhere...

Too many journalists think Twitter is representative of the country as a whole, hence the shock at the Lib Dems' lack of polling surge.

[Phony Moderate]

Emily Thornberry demolished Sir Michael Fallon earlier btw:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1JLX10Wz3A

[Phony Moderate]

The 'old dinosaurs' remember what it was like in the 1970s.

Or, on a more localized level, the 1980s (Militant Tendency et al)

Well Merseyside is probably of the few places where Labour might win the over 60 vote...

[Phony Moderate]

Interestingly, a lot of normal people (i.e. those who are, at best, mildly interested in politics) on my social media feeds are saying that they won't vote Labour because of the 'mess that Blair and Brown made of the country'. Not much about Jeremy's extremism or whatever.

[Phony Moderate]

Everyone's favorite analysts, The Political Compass, have released their hot UK takes.

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"Losing is a good thing!"

Well, political parties aren't football teams in all of our minds tbf.

[Phony Moderate]

the Liberals are back to their pre 80's ratings

Pre-70s really. Thorpe (yes, that guy) led them to around a fifth of the vote in both of the 1974 elections.

[Phony Moderate]

Theresa May buries Thatcherism


Tory Manifesto
https://issuu.com/conservativeparty/docs/ge2017_manifesto_a5_digital


First time since 1979 no classical liberal party running for office, New political era...

She's very good at portraying herself as a moderate. Remember her first speech as PM?

It's not about that. It's about being 'strong and stable'.

[Phony Moderate]

FWIW the big worry at the moment is that if Labour get 33-34% we'll still lose up to 70+ seats, but we're be saddled with Corbyn for another year or two; as he'll proclaim he's managed to expand the vote

Given that we might well be enjoying a 20-point plus lead in the polls in two years' time regardless of who is leader, he could be around for longer than that.

[Phony Moderate]

Only 2 of the 10 largest papers favor the Labour party over the Tories.

     Given the utter disaster Labour's campaign has been, the Mirror appears to be some sort of propaganda arm for the Labour Party.

The campaign (and most in the party would acknowledge this) hasn't been that bad at all - Abbott's gaffe seems more like a sore thumb now. Corbyn, McDonnell and Thornberry (the other three holds of shadow Great Offices) have all conducted themselves quite well thus far. At the very least we have positioned ourselves as the main alternative to the Tories. Which still might mean we go down to 150 seats or whatever but still.

[Phony Moderate]

Corbynmentum?

Bad polling? Labour was polling at 35% before the election in 2015 and look what happened there.

But the polls never showed any kind of surge during that campaign.

[Phony Moderate]

Tories have been acting like this thing is in the bag and I think that rubs a lot of people the wrong way.

To be fair the leading figures have been quick to say "not a single vote has been cast".