Bachmann bid for GOP leadership gets cool reaction (user search)
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  Bachmann bid for GOP leadership gets cool reaction (search mode)
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Author Topic: Bachmann bid for GOP leadership gets cool reaction  (Read 2544 times)
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StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

« on: November 04, 2010, 10:26:23 PM »

Let's see, Bachmann ran about even with her district's PVI. If every Pubbie ran even with their PVI, that would mean the Dems would win the generic vote by about 5%. That is not a good number in a GOP wave election. If you compared GOP incumbent.s performance to their district's PVI, Bachmann this year must be close to the bottom. That might be why she got a cool reception: she is toxic with the swing voters needed to win POTUS, or for that matter, winning Congress. If everyone ran as well as Bachmann vis a vis their district's PVI, it is problematical if the GOP would even have taken the House this year.

Nice spin. What you fail to mention is that the Democrat party dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars into her district, Nancy Pelosi marked her as her number 1 target for the election and Obama, Clinton and crew campaigned in her district. Her winning with the numbers she did is actually BETTER then I expected.
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StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2010, 11:30:30 PM »

I meant to say GOP incumbents. Let me make this clearer. Bachmann's CD's PVI is GOP +7%.  That means she should get an 11% margin ((7x2)-5) if she is to match a 50-50  national vote split, correcting for her CD's PVI. That is because running even with an EVEN PVI means that you lose by 5% (beaten 52.5 to 47.5). She got 12%.  That is not very good, beating break even by 1%, as a GOP incumbent in a GOP wave year. I suspect it is the worst performance of any GOP incumbent who was running.

And if every GOP candidate ran as well as she did, it is not clear to me that the GOP would have won the House, and an additional dozen GOP incumbents would have lost. If you break even in a wave year, how are you going to do in a break even year?  In short, she's a drag, a big one.

Nice spin. What you fail to mention is that the Democrat party dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars into her district, Nancy Pelosi marked her as her number 1 target for the election and Obama, Clinton and crew campaigned in her district. Her winning with the numbers she did is actually BETTER then I expected.
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StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2010, 11:31:30 PM »

she should NOT be in the leadership

Yes, we need more Lincoln Chafees.
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StatesRights
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,126
Political Matrix
E: 7.61, S: 0.00

« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2010, 11:34:15 PM »


Just talking about the type of GOPer Jamfest wants.
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