EU elections predictions! (user search)
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Author Topic: EU elections predictions!  (Read 36195 times)
lidaker
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 746
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: 0.88, S: -4.67

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« on: May 29, 2004, 07:42:15 PM »

Velkommen, Jens! Knallert pige pære pølse smørrebrød halvfjerds!!
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lidaker
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 746
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: 0.88, S: -4.67

WWW
« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2004, 08:11:47 PM »
« Edited: May 29, 2004, 08:41:11 PM by lidaker »

Prediction for the Swedish EU elections:

Left Party (GUE/NGL) 2 (-1)
Social Democrats (PSE) 6 (+/-0)
Greens (Greens/EFA) 1 (-1)
Centre Party (ELDR) 1 (+/-0)
Liberal Party (ELDR) 3 (+/-0)
Libertarians/Conservatives (EPP-ED) 5 (+/-0)
Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) 0 (-2)
June Ballot (EDD) 1 (-)
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lidaker
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 746
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: 0.88, S: -4.67

WWW
« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2004, 11:35:13 AM »

Prediction for the Swedish EU elections:

Left Party (GUE/NGL) 2 (-1)
Social Democrats (PSE) 6 (+/-0)
Greens (Greens/EFA) 1 (-1)
Centre Party (ELDR) 1 (+/-0)
Liberal Party (ELDR) 3 (+/-0)
Libertarians/Conservatives (EPP-ED) 5 (+/-0)
Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) 0 (-2)
June Ballot (EDD) 1 (-)

Hm, that's like a mirror image of my current prediction... Smiley (I don't remember if I updated the last one here on the forum though). Though, I think that C might lose their seat. Also, SAP might still fall badly, their voters won't vote on electino day, I think. JL might surprise and get a 2nd seat, but that would require luck, obviously. It could happen if both C and KD get below 4% though.  

True. S voters are probably the ones least inclined to go out and vote. The got only 26% last time and turnout will probably be even lower this time, so it's perfectly possible they'll get only 5 seats. And I agree that it's possible that C and KD will get 0 seats, since their voters are soffliggare and EU-skeptics as well. June Ballot could also get 0 seats. But let's say S gets 5, C and KD 0 and June Ballot 1. That makes two remaining seats. Turnout among greens and leftists will probably not be very high either, so it's possible that those three seats go to M and FP. That means M gets 30% and FP 20%. Turnout must be very low among left-of-center folks for that to happen and significantly higher among right-of-center-voters.

Alternative scenario:
Left Party (GUE/NGL) 2 (-1)
Social Democrats (PSE) 5 (-1)
Greens (Greens/EFA) 1 (-1)
Centre Party (ELDR) 0 (-1)
Liberal Party (ELDR) 4 (+1)
Libertarians/Conservatives (EPP-ED) 6 (+1)
Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) 0 (-2)
June Ballot (EDD) 1 (-)

I don't think it will happen though since turnout isn't likely to be that much higher among right-of-center voters.
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lidaker
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 746
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: 0.88, S: -4.67

WWW
« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2004, 12:52:22 PM »
« Edited: May 30, 2004, 12:54:50 PM by lidaker »

Did you read this?

http://www.svd.se/dynamiskt/inrikes/did_7475439.asp

Says turnout is highest among FP voters, followed by KD voters(!), M voters, V voters, S voters, C voters and MP voters. 51% of MP voters are sure not no vote, which is why I don't think they'll get two seats, they might even lose the two they currently have. If you want to protest vote Jonas Sjöstedt (V) is probably a more well-known alternative. And besides, all parties seem to be EU-skeptics nowadays, so MP getting much of the NO-voters' votes might belong to the past.

UPDATED
The required percentages (100-4)/18=5,33:
1 seat: 4%
2 seats: 9,3%
3 seats: 14,6%
4 seats: 20,0%
5 seats: 25,3%
6 seats: 30,6%
7 seats: 36,0%

That is, if it's true that you get a seat if you're above 4%, should be 100/19=5,26%.
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lidaker
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 746
Sweden


Political Matrix
E: 0.88, S: -4.67

WWW
« Reply #4 on: May 30, 2004, 02:21:48 PM »

Hmm... seems a little too complicated for me right now...
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