Prediction for the Swedish EU elections:
Left Party (GUE/NGL) 2 (-1)
Social Democrats (PSE) 6 (+/-0)
Greens (Greens/EFA) 1 (-1)
Centre Party (ELDR) 1 (+/-0)
Liberal Party (ELDR) 3 (+/-0)
Libertarians/Conservatives (EPP-ED) 5 (+/-0)
Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) 0 (-2)
June Ballot (EDD) 1 (-)
Hm, that's like a mirror image of my current prediction... (I don't remember if I updated the last one here on the forum though). Though, I think that C might lose their seat. Also, SAP might still fall badly, their voters won't vote on electino day, I think. JL might surprise and get a 2nd seat, but that would require luck, obviously. It could happen if both C and KD get below 4% though.
True. S voters are probably the ones least inclined to go out and vote. The got only 26% last time and turnout will probably be even lower this time, so it's perfectly possible they'll get only 5 seats. And I agree that it's possible that C and KD will get 0 seats, since their voters are soffliggare and EU-skeptics as well. June Ballot could also get 0 seats. But let's say S gets 5, C and KD 0 and June Ballot 1. That makes two remaining seats. Turnout among greens and leftists will probably not be very high either, so it's possible that those three seats go to M and FP. That means M gets 30% and FP 20%. Turnout must be very low among left-of-center folks for that to happen and significantly higher among right-of-center-voters.
Alternative scenario:
Left Party (GUE/NGL) 2 (-1)
Social Democrats (PSE) 5 (-1)
Greens (Greens/EFA) 1 (-1)
Centre Party (ELDR) 0 (-1)
Liberal Party (ELDR) 4 (+1)
Libertarians/Conservatives (EPP-ED) 6 (+1)
Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) 0 (-2)
June Ballot (EDD) 1 (-)
I don't think it will happen though since turnout isn't likely to be that much higher among right-of-center voters.