2012 a bloodbath for Democrats in the senate?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Don't be so sure. Remember a couple of things :
- The 2012 class is inherently more democratic than the country, so 2006's results are less surprising than one might think.
- Democrats have at least two chances of picking up seats, in Massachusetts and in Maine if Snowe retires or gets primaried
- There's no reason to think democrats could lose more than 6 seats (not counting their gains), ie what they gained in 2006
- This is assuming the republicans will have a good year in 2012, nothing is less sure

My bet is a net republican gain of 2-3 seats, which would be enough for democrats to hold on. Of course, far better of far worse scenarioes are fairly possible.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course, it's highly likely that democrats lose the Senate in 2014, especially if Pryor, Landrieu or Baucus retire, but they could easily regain it just two years later.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As for the House, you have to remember that there are a good 10-15 seats that would be flipped back just by having a 2008 level minority turnout, and the 2012 electorate is likely to be even less white than 2008.

Republicans will control redistricting, and thus Democrats will have to do better than one would think.

They can't make more damage than what they made in 2001. The democrats have nothign to lose, only to gain in States like IL or CA.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To all those who rate Olympia Snowe as super-safe in 2010, I would like to point out that when PPP polled the state a couple of months, they found that her approvals have dropped dramatically.

Democrats are pissed because of her lockstep voting with the rest of  her party, while Republicans are furious with her votes for the stimulus, TARP and the fact that she voted yes for HCR at the Finance Committee.

Yeah, being a moderate hero around those times doesn't pay so much...