France 2012: the official thread (user search)
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Author Topic: France 2012: the official thread  (Read 366629 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #150 on: August 06, 2011, 10:24:22 AM »
If you update it at due time next Monday, you'll get the monthly graph. Wink
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #151 on: August 08, 2011, 10:21:02 AM »
Angry Angry Angry Angry
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #152 on: August 09, 2011, 04:13:08 AM »
Well, it could have been worse. Wink Let me the time to update everything, and I'll give you the graphs...


Quote from: big bad fab on August 08, 2011, 05:24:36 PM
BTW, I'm really worried by your green avatar...

I've lost all hope in Obama and in democrats after the debt "deal" (once again giving up everything to the crazies). These guys don't represent what I stand for, they're just the GOP's useful idiots. The green party is useless, but at least somewhat matches my political views.

I, on the other hand, still don't get why you wear the avatar of a bunch of brainless, bigoted hacks who would gladly screw their country just to piss off Obama. Huh
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #153 on: August 09, 2011, 08:16:02 AM »
As promised ! Smiley

Aubry :


Hollande :



Clearly one is stronger as the other, but apart from Sarko and the PS candidates the variations seem mostly statistical noise.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #154 on: August 09, 2011, 10:59:06 AM »
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

No, I meant the comparison between one graph and the other. All candidates are slightly higher in the Aubry scenario (except Joly) but only marginally so.

There is certainly something going on politically, with all these talks about the debt crisis and all (BTW, I've heard in italian news that some rating agencies were considering to downgrade France, but apparently that wasn't reported in France so far...). But we can't see what exactly is going on because those lazy pollsters are on vacation. That's horribly frustrating. Tongue

Hopefully when the actual campaign aproaches we'll switch back to themes like unemployment or fiscality...


Quote from: big bad fab on August 09, 2011, 10:42:04 AM
Quote from: Senator Antonio V on August 09, 2011, 04:13:08 AM
Well, it could have been worse. Wink Let me the time to update everything, and I'll give you the graphs...


Quote from: big bad fab on August 08, 2011, 05:24:36 PM
BTW, I'm really worried by your green avatar...

I've lost all hope in Obama and in democrats after the debt "deal" (once again giving up everything to the crazies). These guys don't represent what I stand for, they're just the GOP's useful idiots. The green party is useless, but at least somewhat matches my political views.

I, on the other hand, still don't get why you wear the avatar of a bunch of brainless, bigoted hacks who would gladly screw their country just to piss off Obama. Huh

Ah yes... we've both forgotten that my blue avatar is French and your red one was American !!! Tongue

You know that I'm closer to Lieberman, Clark, Nunn or Warner or even Gore.
I could vote for Romney, but I'm sure that, in 2008, I'd have voted for Obama (because of Palin) and note for the Mac...

No, don't worry, I'm not a tea-partier ! (and Boutin isn't a tea-partier either Grin).

Yeah, I knew you meant this as "UMP-FR", but, you know, it actually says "R". Grin Of course you don't fit the GOP's mainstream at all. Fortunately.

As for me becoming a French greenie... Roll Eyes
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #155 on: August 09, 2011, 11:14:32 AM »
Quote from: Accomidateing on August 09, 2011, 11:08:19 AM
I don't know what's with this staunch hatred of the French Greens as if they were some evil party. Sure, they're not perfect, they've acted either as irrational far-left hippiecommies or as the PS's National Parks Division, and sometimes they're full of it and act like idiots; but they're one of the most decent parties/least sucky parties in France. By the admittedly low standards of French parties, they're the only ones who are worth a damn. And of the major parties, they're the only one which actually see decentralization going beyond giving $4 to build a park in some dump.

I don't hate the French greens, far from that. That's just not the kind of party I see myself joining.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #156 on: August 15, 2011, 01:46:32 PM »
Fab, when does the last poll we've had date back to ? I wonder when we would theoretically run out of data if no new poll comes. Wink
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #157 on: August 18, 2011, 03:45:47 PM »
The problem is that such poll will crush all others in terms of ponderation and we'll see sudden and enormous swings... If it's an outlier, it will screw the tracker for a long time...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #158 on: August 20, 2011, 04:25:41 AM »
Where's the poll in question ?
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #159 on: August 22, 2011, 03:52:03 AM »
So this is not an actual presidential poll, merely some weird and not particularly useful questions. Tongue
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #160 on: August 22, 2011, 04:28:01 AM »
We can say what we want about DSK, but he's intelligent enough to know the best thing he can do regarding French politics nowadays is to shut up. If he does that and if he's clearly innocented (hopefully no for lack of evidence) of the Banon affair as well, he could still play an important role in a PS government. The left needs competent economists like him.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #161 on: August 23, 2011, 04:22:45 AM »
I've really not heard them a lot on this topic. And I think that, barring another upset, the "affair" will now finally fade away and we'll get back on more political topics (the Balanced Budget Amendment, the senatorials aproaching, etc...).

Also, where is your tracker ? Sad
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #162 on: August 23, 2011, 06:28:11 AM »
The Parti de Gauche is Mélenchon's personal outfit, which has no existence outside of him. It allied with the PCF since 2009 (with a few other random outfits) in a permanent coalition called "Front de Gauche". Basically, the deal between them is give the candidacy to Mélenchon, leave the constituencies to the PCF. Communists bring Mélenchon the party machine necessary to run a campaign, and hope to exploit his charisma in order to regain some ground (or not lose too much) in the French political scene.

The two neotrotskyst parties are the NPA (Besancenot's party created in 2009, which didn't meet as much success as expected and is now totally fading away since Besancenot has announced he won't run in 2012) and LO (Laguiller's old outfit, was never particularly relevant and won't be in 2012 either). None of them are allied with the FG.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #163 on: August 24, 2011, 06:01:25 AM »
Yeah, same old voting patterns. Not very meaningful since the campaign hasn't really begun, but yeah, Hollande is ahead. I'd like to see the debate actually start on political subject, but of course it's not gonna happen anytime soon.

So, is this tracker coming or not ? Huh
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #164 on: August 25, 2011, 11:38:09 AM »
You're welcome. Wink


So Hollande and Aubry are effectively even when it comes to the very important ability-to-beat-Sarkozy. Hopefully, that should end up this campaigning argument.

So Fab, 26% is "deeply weak" for you ?

If trends keep on in this direction, Sarko will be ahead by october...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #165 on: August 26, 2011, 04:51:09 AM »
Quote from: big bad fab on August 25, 2011, 01:14:03 PM
Remember that Aubry was exactly equal to Hollande the last time...
And that Sarkozy was already high (26 and 27) in July...

So, with CSA, we have to be careful not to misinterpret...
The current trends (Hollande stronger, Sarkozy on the rise but very slowly, Le Pen down but still high) aren't invalidated at all.

Maybe what you should do is to separate your tracker into one subtracker for each polling firm, and aggregate those subtrackers to get the "official" tracker (you can give each firm the same ponderation, if you want). That way, it won't be too dependent of the overrepresentation of a particular house (for example, CSA will dominate the tracker next week). Of course, it makes it a bit more complicated. Tongue
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #166 on: August 26, 2011, 05:03:36 AM »
Nah, we've only a handful of primary polls and the trends aren't even interesting...

Instead, eliminating house effects would be very useful to see things more clearly.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #167 on: August 28, 2011, 04:59:52 AM »
I really can't wait for the debate, because the socialists' current "no comment" policy is getting sillier every day.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #168 on: August 31, 2011, 06:04:30 AM »
Hopefully the new bump in the Bettencourt affair will kill Sarko's momentum once for all.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #169 on: August 31, 2011, 06:48:51 AM »
Quote from: big bad fab on August 31, 2011, 06:30:42 AM
Quote from: Senator Antonio V on August 31, 2011, 06:04:30 AM
Hopefully the new bump in the Bettencourt affair will kill Sarko's momentum once for all.

I'm not so sure: it smells too much the Le Monde-Libération manipulation (I even suspect them to have given the info to Aubry this morning so that she can be the first to demand another inquiry... come on, guys, it's too clumsy... Grin even Valls seem to have understood this Grin).

ZOMGZ Conspiracy ! Tongue
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #170 on: September 01, 2011, 04:09:30 AM »
Yes, that might be as you say. It's quite possible that they waited the right moment to reveal the story. As we say, "c'est de bonne guerre". Wink
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #171 on: September 01, 2011, 05:14:38 AM »
Let's wait for the primary debates... I'm sure Aubry will trounce The Wimp.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #172 on: September 04, 2011, 04:38:00 AM »
So, no new poll again this week... Sad
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #173 on: September 04, 2011, 07:30:17 AM »
Well, as it seemed the CSA poll was pretty biased against Le Pen and for Sarkozy. By averaging those two, we should hopefully come with a decent idea of how the race stands. I hope we'll start having more than one poll per week however...
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,385
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #174 on: September 05, 2011, 11:27:47 AM »
Please Fab, tell me you're not including that crap in your tracker.
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