French legislative election 2012

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm sorry, but I definitely don't find Le Pen 3.0 hot. She's all right, but her face is pretty meh. Or maybe I'm just biased against fascists.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Guigou, Bartolone and Glavany officially running for presidency of the assembly.

Le Roux should take the lead of the PS group (which, in the end, is more important), and Bertrand (a Fillon supporter) will apparently run for the UMP group against incumbent Jacob (a Copéist).

[Antonio the Sixth]

For the experts here, in how many constituencies won by Sarko in presidential run off a Left candidate got elected yesterday? And in how many constituencies carried by Hollande, the Right held on?

I'm sure Hash had made a map back in time, but I'm not sure where it is.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Has anyone seen a list of all the close second round elections and who won them.  It seems to me as if there were alot of close ones.  

Maybe it's a bit late, but I've made a list of all races won by 2 points or less. There were 65 (ie 11%).

Of left-right battles (54/440) :

Eure-2 : Jean-Louis DESTANS (PS) 50,04%
Seine-et-Marne-7 : Yves ALBARELLO (UMP) 50,08%
Val-de-Marne-4 : Jacques-Alain BÉNISTI (UMP) 50,09%
Maine-et-Loire-7 : Marc LAFFINEUR (UMP) 50,10%
Hérault-1 : Jean-Louis ROUMEGAS (EELV) 50,10%
Doubs-2 : Eric ALAUZET (EELV) 50,12%
Loiret-6 : Valérie CORRE (PS) 50,14%
Sarthe-5 : Dominique LE MENER (UMP) 50,16%
Hauts-de-Seine-13 : Patrick DEVEDJIAN (UMP) 50,18%
Haute-Saône-2 : Jean-Michel VILLAUMÉ (PS) 50,22%
Polynésie Française-3 : Jean-Paul TUAIVA (DVD) 50,24%
Tarn-3 : Linda GOURJADE (PS) 50,25%
Aisne-2 : Xavier BERTRAND (UMP) 50,25%
Yonne-2 : Jean-Yves CAULLET (PS) 50,25%
Val-d'Oise-4 : Gérard SEBAOUN (PS) 50,25%
Indre-et-Loire-2 : Claude GREFF (UMP) 50,26%
Val-d'Oise-7 : Jérôme CHARTIER (UMP) 50,29%
Vaucluse-5 : Julien AUBERT (UMP) 50,33%
Vosges-4 : Christian FRANQUEVILLE (PS) 50,37%
Loiret-2 : Serge GROUARD (UMP) 50,37%
Saône-et-Loire-4 : Cécile UNTERMAIER (PS) 50,40%
Haute-Garonne-3 : Jean-Luc MOUDENC (UMP) 50,41%
Hauts-de-Seine-12 : Jean-Marc GERMAIN (PS) 50,44%
Val-d'Oise-6 : François SCELLIER (UMP) 50,49%
Pyrénées-Orientales-2 : Fernand SIRE (UMP) : 50,49%
Yvelines-7 : Arnaud RICHARD (PR) : 50,51%
Corse-du-Sud-1 : Laurent MARCANGELI (UMP) 50,52%
Lozère-AL : Pierre MOREL-A-L'HUISSIER (UMP) 50,52%
Cher-1 : Yves FROMION (UMP) 50,52%
Somme-4 : Alain GEST (UMP) 50,55%
Isère-8 : Erwann BINET (PS) 50,57%
Isère-7 : Jean-Pierre BARBIER (UMP) 50,62%
Bouches-du-Rhône-1 : Valérie BOYER (UMP) 50,65%
Hérault-9 : Patrick VIGNAL (PS) 50,66%
Vienne-4 : Véronique MASSONNEAU (EELV) 50,67%
Aveyron-1 : Yves CENSI (UMP) 50,67%
Calvados-5 : Isabelle ATTARD (EELV) 50,71%
Eure-et-Loir-1 : Jean-Pierre GORGES (UMP) 50,78%
Tarn-1 : Philippe FOLLIOT (AC) 50,79%
Seine-Maritime-7 : Edouard PHILIPPE (UMP) 50,81%
Drôme-2 : Franck REYNIER (PR) 50,81%
Pas-de-Calais-9 : Stéphane SAINT-ANDRE (PRG) 50,83%
Puy-de-Dôme-3 : Danielle AUROI (EELV) 50,83%
Somme-2 : Barbara POMPILI (EELV) 50,83%
Seine-Saint-Denis-8 : Elisabeth POCHON (PS) 50,85%
Moselle-2 : Denis JACQUAT (UMP) 50,86%
Val-d'Oise-2 : Axel PONIATOWSKI (UMP) 50,86%
Vosges-2 : Gérard CHERPION (UMP) 50,88%
Seine-Maritime-10 : Dominique CHAUVEL (PS) 50,93%
Val-de-Marne-6 : Laurence ABEILLE (EELV) 50,95%
Bouches-du-Rhône-11 : Christian KERT (UMP) 50,98%
Isère-10 : Joëlle HUILLIER (PS) 50,98%
Orne-3 : Yves GOASDOUE (DVG) 50,99%
Bas-Rhin-3 : André SCHNEIDER (UMP) 50,99%

Of left-far right battles (2/23) :

Pas-de-Calais-11 : Philippe KEMEL (PS) 50,11%
Bouches-du-Rhône-3 : Sylvie ANDRIEUX (PS) 50,99%

Of left-centre battles (1/4) :

Pyrénées-Atlantiques-4 : Jean LASSALLE (MoDem) 50,98%

Of left-right-far right battles (6/28) :

Hérault-6 : Dolores ROQUE (PS) 39,82% over Elie ABOUD (UMP) 39,80%
Oise-2 : Jean-François MANCEL (UMP) 38,97% over Sylvie HOUSSIN (PS) 38,85%
Bouches-du-Rhône-8 : Olivier FERRAND (PS) 40,48% over Nicolas ISNARD (UMP) 39,91%
Bouches-du-Rhône-12 : Vincent BURRONI (PS) 37,34% over Eric DIARD (UMP) 36,60%
Moselle-7 : Paola ZANETTI (PS) 38,49% over André WOJCIECHOWSKI (PR) 37,74%
Gard-2 : Gilbert COLLARD (FN) 42,82% over Katy GUYOT (PS) 41,56%

Of left-left-right battles (1/3) :

Wallis-et-Futuna-AL : David VERGÉ (DVD) 41,61% over Mikaele KULIMOETOKE (DVG) 41,04%

Of left-right-right battles (1/2) :

Hauts-de-Seine-9 : Thierry SOLERE (DVD) 39,35% over Claude GUEANT (UMP) 38,41%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Objectiv, thanks for list.  Looks like the UMP did ok in the close head to head matchups, with the left getting lucky with a few  victories over two right wing candidates in the dreaded three way runoffs. 

Indeed, it is striking that of the 54 straight runoffs, the right won significantly more (31, ie 57%) than the left. Even though the left got luckier against the right when the FN qualified, if you consider all the races where the left and right came close, the right won 33 and the left only 27. If the distribution corresponded to that of the other seats, I calculated that the left should have won 10 more seats. I guess this might be an effect of redistricting, with Marleix having packed left-wing votes in order to ensure the right wins a great share of marginal seats.

Also to note : two close right wins (Vaucluse-5 and Pyrénées-Orientales-2) were possible thanks to the withdrawal of FN candidates who were qualified to stand on second round. These were the only two cases when it happened in the country. The only race when a right-winger had withdrawn in favor of a far-rightist (Bouches-du-Rhône-16) resulted in a left victory with 51,29%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

One thing that is very clear from the results is that there is less stigma attached to the FN than a decade ago. And I'm not even really thinking of those places where an FN candidate can now expect to poll better in a two-candidate runoff than a mainstream Right candidate.

Absolutely. The number of left-FN races where the FN broke 40 or even 45% is terrifying.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Useful list, Antonio, because it gives us potential judicial procedures to have elections re-run.
When you're below 50,5%, everything is possible. And Hérault-6 may be cancelled too.

Imagine a series of 5 or 6 élections partielles at the beginning of 2013
I remember the 4 of 1981 that were cancelled and re-run: 4 rightist victories... It was really a shock for the left at the time (and for me, as I was a stupid 11-year-old leftist )

Because, apart from Seine-et-Marne 7 and from Haute-Garonne, all these races can very well turn in rightist victories: remember, partielles mean low turnout, no triangulaires and higher abstention among voters disappointed by "their" governement.

Thanks for giving me some hope for the months to come

That would be unfair. The left deserved more wins, not less ! So, what does it take to invalidate an election ? And how exactly do invalidation procedures work ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

One thing that is very clear from the results is that there is less stigma attached to the FN than a decade ago. And I'm not even really thinking of those places where an FN candidate can now expect to poll better in a two-candidate runoff than a mainstream Right candidate.

Absolutely. The number of left-FN races where the FN broke 40 or even 45% is terrifying.

Indeed:

Nord-12: 18% to 42.5%
Tarn-et-Garonne-2: 19% to 40%

The worst cases are Philippot in Moselle (46%), and in BdR the guys who almost beat Andrieux and Vauzelle. The "glass ceiling" is definitely eroding.

It's the Conseil constitutionnel that invalidates elections. Every candidate but also every voter from the constituency can launch a procedure (during ten days after the official results are proclaimed). Every means of proof is admissible.

Sometimes, there are mistakes in numbers or, after recounts, there are new totals.

Sometimes, it's just that the gap is so tiny that an event that shouldn't have occurred (a meeting on a Saturday, a poll published on the local press, diffamatory leaflets given in front of polling stations, polling stations with not enough voting papers, etc.) is considered to have had enough influence to alter the final result (though the Conseil constitutionnel can't estimate how many ballotts are at stake).

I see... It must be quite easy when the margin is less than 100 votes... When will we know for sure which races are challenged ? And how much time should the procedure last before the CC's decision ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, let's hope we'll know soon. Anyways...


Close wins by party :

FG : 0
PS : 20
DVG : 1
PRG : 1
EELV : 7
Reg : 0
Total left : 29

MoDem : 1

AC : 1
PR : 2
NC : 0
DVD : 3
UMP : 28
Total right : 33 (HdS-9 isn't counted because it was only close between two right-wingers)

Far-right : 1


And close loses by party :

FG : 0
PS : 26
DVG : 4
PRG : 0
EELV : 4
Reg : 1
Total left : 35

MoDem : 0

AC : 0
PR : 1
NC : 2
DVD : 0
UMP : 25
Total right : 27

Far-right : 2


So, we have for each party the following ranges (giving all or none of close races, with actual results in brackets).

FG : 10-10 (10)
PS : 260-306 (280)
DVG : 21-26 (22)
PRG : 11-12 (12)
EELV : 10-21 (17)
Reg : 2-3 (2)
Total left : 314-378 (343)

MoDem : 1-2 (2)

AC : 1-2 (2)
PR : 4-7 (6)
NC : 12-14 (12)
DVD : 12-15 (15)
UMP : 166-219 (194)
Total right : 196-256 (229)

Far-right : 2-5 (3)


The "lucky" parties were PRG, EELV (really the luckiest), MoDem, AC, PR, DVD and UMP. The "unlucky" ones were PS, DVG, Reg, NC and FN. I had to use Politiquemania's labels which, unfortunately, aren't very precise. But looking at each MP individually as Fab did takes too much time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

One thing that is very clear from the results is that there is less stigma attached to the FN than a decade ago. And I'm not even really thinking of those places where an FN candidate can now expect to poll better in a two-candidate runoff than a mainstream Right candidate.

Absolutely. The number of left-FN races where the FN broke 40 or even 45% is terrifying.

Have you also had a look at the right-FN runoffs. In one or two of them, the Front candidate actually picked up more votes between rounds than the winner.

Yeah, they got big results too. Never over 40% though, AFAIK.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry for bumping a dead thread yet again, but since Hollande has repeatedly promised the next elections will have a share of PR, I thought it would be interesting to see how it would have affected the seat tally.

I chose to use compensatory PR (a traditional PR concerning only a little share of seats would have no practical effect on the seat count) with D'Hondt method based on first round vote results. I ran two calculations, one adding 65 seats (10% of the 642 potential seats) and the second one with 145 (20% of 722). In order to calculate party vote shares, I used the Interior ministry's useless labels, for lack of a better count. Every party that broke 1% was admitted to receive seats, except aggregates like DVG, DVD, etc...

With 65/642 seats, we get :

FG : 24 (+14)
PS : 280 (+0)
DVG : 22
PRG : 12 (+0)
EELV : 19 (+2)
Reg : 2
MoDem : 6 (+4)
AC : 2
NC : 12 (+0)
PR : 6 (+0)
DVD : 15
UMP : 194 (+0)
FN : 47 (+45)
EXD : 1

Now with 145/722 seats :

FG : 43 (+33)
PS : 280 (+0)
DVG : 22
PRG : 12 (+0)
EELV : 34 (+17)
Reg : 2
MoDem : 11 (+9)
AC : 2
NC : 13 (+1)
PR : 7 (+1)
DVD : 15
UMP : 194 (+0)
FN : 86 (+84)
EXD : 1

In both scenarios, the left gets an absolute majority, though they would need the support of EELV in the first case and of both EELV and FG in the second case. As expected, the FN is the main beneficiary of this system, but the FG also gets a huge boost, and to some extent the MoDem as well. The parliamentary right, having no significantly underrepresented party, is the main loser, falling from 40% of seats to 36% or even 32%. Overall, and as expected, it doesn't change the face of parliament but can significantly complicate things.

[Antonio the Sixth]

List of contested elections per the ConCon:
http://www.conseil-constitutionnel.fr/conseil-constitutionnel/francais/elections-legislatives-2012/contentieux/contentieux-des-elections-legislatives-2012-tableau-general.114818.html

So many ? Well, looks like most of them concern seats which won very comfortably, so the likelihoods of an invalidation aren't very high. Here are the close races which have been contested.

Eure-2 : Jean-Louis DESTANS (PS) 50,04%
Seine-et-Marne-7 : Yves ALBARELLO (UMP) 50,08%
Hérault-1 : Jean-Louis ROUMEGAS (EELV) 50,10%
Doubs-2 : Eric ALAUZET (EELV) 50,12%
Loiret-6 : Valérie CORRE (PS) 50,14%
Hauts-de-Seine-13 : Patrick DEVEDJIAN (UMP) 50,18%
Polynésie Française-3 : Jean-Paul TUAIVA (DVD) 50,24%
Indre-et-Loire-2 : Claude GREFF (UMP) 50,26%
Val-d'Oise-7 : Jérôme CHARTIER (UMP) 50,29%
Vaucluse-5 : Julien AUBERT (UMP) 50,33%
Vosges-4 : Christian FRANQUEVILLE (PS) 50,37%
Hauts-de-Seine-12 : Jean-Marc GERMAIN (PS) 50,44%
Val-d'Oise-6 : François SCELLIER (UMP) 50,49%
Isère-8 : Erwann BINET (PS) 50,57%
Eure-et-Loir-1 : Jean-Pierre GORGES (UMP) 50,78%
Seine-Saint-Denis-8 : Elisabeth POCHON (PS) 50,85%
Seine-Maritime-10 : Dominique CHAUVEL (PS) 50,93%


Pas-de-Calais-11 : Philippe KEMEL (PS) 50,11%
Bouches-du-Rhône-3 : Sylvie ANDRIEUX (PS) 50,99%


Hérault-6 : Dolores ROQUE (PS) 39,82% over Elie ABOUD (UMP) 39,80%
Oise-2 : Jean-François MANCEL (UMP) 38,97% over Sylvie HOUSSIN (PS) 38,85%
Bouches-du-Rhône-8 : Olivier FERRAND (PS) 40,48% over Nicolas ISNARD (UMP) 39,91%
Bouches-du-Rhône-12 : Vincent BURRONI (PS) 37,34% over Eric DIARD (UMP) 36,60%


Wallis-et-Futuna-AL : David VERGÉ (DVD) 41,61% over Mikaele KULIMOETOKE (DVG) 41,04%


Hauts-de-Seine-9 : Thierry SOLERE (DVD) 39,35% over Claude GUEANT (UMP) 38,41%


It seems like the right was significantly more picky than the left, considering that 14 out of 24 (HdS-9 excluded) regard seats won by the left. Meh, no idea what we should expect from this.

btw, Antonio, data.gouv has the results by department for the legislatives, so you could do some experiments with the 1986 system.

Great idea, I'll try to see what I can do.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bouches-du-Rhône-8 : Olivier FERRAND (PS)

Olivier Ferrand sadly died this morning of an anevrism, aged 42, after its jogging.
He was the founder of the controversial center-left think tank "Terra Nova".
He was elected to his first term earlier this month.

Aged 42 ? Oh my God, that's horrible. May he RIP.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on your experience, how many invalidations would you predict ? It would be disgusting if the left's majority (already underwhelming for losing more close races than it won) were further shortened.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Based on your experience, how many invalidations would you predict ? It would be disgusting if the left's majority (already underwhelming for losing more close races than it won) were further shortened.

It may be underwhelming and all... but let's not forget that the left's majority is - I think - bigger than it was in 1997 (and obviously way bigger than in 1988). And even a one seat majority is better than this:

Now, I know I'm a whining spoiled brat, no need to remind me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, for one I'm really hoping Devedjian survives. He's the only right-winger in the 92 who isn't a thug.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, for one I'm really hoping Devedjian survives. He's the only right-winger in the 92 who isn't a thug.

Well, Fromantin is a fairly good guy. There was an interesting article about him a few weeks ago in Le Monde, and he has the style of a moderate, pragmatic centre-rightist focused on governance rather than photo-ops and politicking.

You're right about Fromentin, as usual I spoke a bit to early. Of course, my real reason for liking Devedjian is that Sarkozy hates him. Isn't that a sufficient reason ?