Italy 2013: The official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, just watched Napolitano's wishes and... wow. This is what a statesman looks like. Politicians of his intellectual quality are a near-extinct species.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, just watched Napolitano's wishes and... wow. This is what a statesman looks like. Politicians of his intellectual quality are a near-extinct species.

They are, but then they were never very common. If you ever get the chance to, you should read a (very) long interview he did with Eric Hobsbawm in the 80s; it was published in English as The Italian road to socialism, though was first published in Italian (not sure of the title).

I looked it up, seems that it was published in 1976 in Italy, under the title "Intervista sul PCI". That's quite impressive, really.

Of course it's true that politicians of this kind have never been very common species, but to be fair, the Italian political class during the DC era was remarkably prolific in brilliant, cultured people who were thinkers as well as politicians. Especially from the PCI, of course. From what I have seen, Vendola seems to be the only remnant of this tradition with a political future.

[Antonio the Sixth]

True. But to be fair, I think there were quite a few of these intellectuals in other parties as well.

[Antonio the Sixth]

the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

More to the point, what happened in 1994 shouldn't be forgotten either...

Hence why I said "in any other country".

[Antonio the Sixth]

the PD coalition has been clearly and consistently leading the polls for years now, and in any other country they would be a safe bet at this point

I doubt it (looking at the shifts in polls in the last one or two weeks before the last Dutch election).

More to the point, what happened in 1994 shouldn't be forgotten either...

Hence why I said "in any other country".

We're just trying to install necessary fear in anyone who feels at all confident (which obviously would never include you; remembering the French Presidential election).

I am, indeed, shuddering every day. Just learning that elections will be held on Feb 24 rather than Feb 10 as initially hypothesized was horrible news to me. I know Berlusconi is desperate and would do literally anything to means, even if it means wrecking Italy beyond any hope. My only hope is that he's too incompetent to succeed...

But anyway, Lega has to take a decision on Jan 8 on where they will stand. If they stand alone, as it seems likely, I'll sigh with deep relief. If in an upset Berlusconi manages do make a deal, let's brace ourselves...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Fini's not a neofascist in any meaningful sense. He's even pretty moderate by Italian standards.

In all fairness, I have to admit that AN's evolution is a rare example of a far-right party that genuinely dropped the extremism and evolved into a mainstream political force. There are a number of far-right parties throughout Europe that claim to have done this and blatantly haven't (FN is the prime example). Most of ex-AN guys are still idiots and assholes, but not fascists.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Monti resurrecting DC and carrying it to the win?

Basically. It doesn't seem very likely, but then Berlusconi winning in 1994 was not exactly plausible sounding until it actually happened either.

You forgot

[Antonio the Sixth]

Center-Right (No name given yet - PdL/La Destra/FdI-CN/GS)

What is GS?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Center-Right (No name given yet - PdL/La Destra/FdI-CN/GS)

What is GS?

I suppose Grande Sud

Ah, right. LOL.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Monti bashing PD, saying it "silences conservatives" and is dominated by views of CGIL and Vendola.

Montibot activated campaign mode.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Monti bashing PD, saying it "silences conservatives" and is dominated by views of CGIL and Vendola.

Montibot activated campaign mode.

He couldn't let an opportunity to attack both sides pass him by: he also trashed PdL for "extreme positions."

Also, there could be a development with Lega and the center-right: Berlusconi is claiming (emphasis on "claiming") that he wouldn't be Prime Minister if the coalition wins. That would be pretty awesome if he presented himself just as the party leader but refused to take charge but that is probably the least believable idea out there.

I heard in the news that he called Berlusconi "volatile". That made me laugh for a couple minutes.

And about Berlusconi not becoming PM if he wins...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fratelli d’Italia (La Russa, Meloni and co) 2%

Fratelli d'Italia 0.4

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fratelli d’Italia (La Russa, Meloni and co) 2%

Fratelli d'Italia 0.4

What the hell? How are they doing that poorly? I know it just launched but still...

You mean how is it possible that people saw through the little electoral trick? I know it's a bit surprising.

Fassina is just some PD guy who is slightly less centrish than the rest. Not really notable AFAIK.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Monti was on La7 today. Nothing particular, but it's really obvious a man like him, with all his qualities, has nothing to do in electoral politics.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Actually, the left won 2 of the last 4 elections. Obviously, winning 50% of the time against Berlusconi isn't exactly something to be proud of... And obviously, the left is unable to govern after winning election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Actually, the left won 2 of the last 4 elections. Obviously, winning 50% of the time against Berlusconi isn't exactly something to be proud of... And obviously, the left is unable to govern after winning election.

Two out of how many since the end of World War II?

That's not fair. First Republic elections didn't really have "winners" or "losers".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not that you care about this, but anyways: I'm supporting Bersani and the PD (would be a SeL voter until today, but I think Bersani will make a good PM).

A vote for SEL is a vote for Bersani for PM, though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lega basically made it clear today they'll stand behind Berlusconi. LOL Maroni, so much for the "new Lega"... Now they deserve to get under 2%.

It seems SEL has settled at around 5% right now in most poll, hasn't it?

Between 5 and 6%, yes (sadly ).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Lega basically made it clear today they'll stand behind Berlusconi.

So hoping they'd go alone. (Which might actually have been the right choice to maximize their own vote... but with the law being what it is...)

That's disgusting indeed. This party has raised hypocrisy into a full-fledged art.

Anyway, the coalition threshold is 2%, and even though they should, I have a hard time seeing Lega fall below that level. And even if they did, there is that utterly ridiculous "first party below the threshold" clause... The only way they could get shut out of parliament would be for Lega to get less votes than La Destra, with La Destra getting less than 2%... Very unlikely. Hopefully we'll see a 2-3 point drop from their current 5-6% standing, however.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It looks like PSI is negotiating some names to be put in Bersani's quota of candidates within PD lists. So I suppose they won't field their own list leaving Tabacci as the first (only) party below threshold in the CL.LOL!

That's what happened to MpA in the right-wing coalition in 2008.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't think Presidency will be seriously discussed until we have the result of parliamentary elections. If the left get an absolute majority in both houses, I doubt they'll be very warm on Monti after how he is (and will probably keep) slamming them for the campaign. If there's no clear majority, however, putting Monti there might be a way by PdL/PD to keep him away from Palazzo Chigi... if he accepts.

@Rod: M5S is literally a bunch of crazies. They're not by any means a serious voting options. Civic Revolution might be well meaning, but they'll be pretty useless.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Prodi would make a fine President (he's certainly more fit for that job than for Prime Ministership).

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, Lega is facing a new scandal, apparently dealing with the embezzlement of the funds allotted to their Senate group.

Hopefully this will make their participation to the right coalition nigh irrelevant.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Lega needs to die slowly and painfully.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Crazy election just became even crazier.

Bascially.

Not that much though. If 1 is a normal election, and 100 is the level of craziness of, say, 1994, this election went from 1000 to 1050 maybe.