Italy 2013: The official thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've seen the last few polls, and all seem to have the left leading by 7-8 points. That's pretty poor and nowhere near what it should be, but the lead seems to be steady and consistent. Everything can still happen, but I think we're not in panic mode just yet.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Exactly one month to go. An eight point lead and Silvio hasn't ramped up campaigning yet. Just saying.

"hasn't ramped up campaigning yet"? You probably haven't seen the same campaign as I have.

Anyways, I find your implicit salivating at the idea of a Berlusconi comeback (despite your insistence that you don't support him) pretty disheartening.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pointing out that the race has undeniably narrowed (unless you're one poster that still refuses to acknowledge it) and that Berlusconi has a history of closing strong counts as "salivating" over a win? One can't objectively point out a comeback? God, some of you are getting awfully desperate/angry and taking it out on the wrong people.

We've all noticed by now that the gap has narrowed. This has been widely discussed in this thread including by myself (and not exactly in overconfident tones, as you can remember). However, that was the news of two or three weeks ago. If you look at the big picture, you can see there has not been much movement in most recent polls. However, 90% of your posts in this thread keep being about how Berlusconi's inevitable comeback is on a roll. You sound pretty much like those who still saw a "Romney momentum" in the last week of October. And since these people weren't absolutely neutral in their support, that led me to think you aren't either. I apologize if I misunderstood.

I think you know I've no problem discussing with people of different opinions, but supporting Berlusconi isn't a problem in political views - it's a moral issue. Hence why I'm annoyed when I see you verging on this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The response was even more ridiculous than the original post. Whatever. Let's keep the holier-than-thou nonsense out of here though. Thanks.

And 90% of my posts are questions to people that know more than I do about the race (mainly native Italians) and poll numbers without commentary.

Would you mind to explain what's so ridiculous? I know the "Berlusconi is coming back" narrative is always a very tempting one to adopt, but being as confident as you are never makes much sense (Sarkozy will be reelected, right?).

[Antonio the Sixth]

The response was even more ridiculous than the original post. Whatever. Let's keep the holier-than-thou nonsense out of here though. Thanks.

And 90% of my posts are questions to people that know more than I do about the race (mainly native Italians) and poll numbers without commentary.

Would you mind to explain what's so ridiculous? I know the "Berlusconi is coming back" narrative is always a very tempting one to adopt, but being as confident as you are never makes much sense (Sarkozy will be reelected, right?).

And Sarkozy was nearly re-elected. 

What was ridiculous was your suggestion that 90% of my posts in the thread have been about Berlusconi's inevitable comeback.

1) 90%? Really, dude?
2) I've never argued that the comeback is "inevitable." I haven't argued that Silvio will win.
3) I'm here for answers, to post news and discuss the dynamics of the race. I really have no desire to "campaign" here. If you want to get all sanctimonious about how someone's support in this election is a "moral issue," go ahead. I'm not engaging in that.

Oh come on now. We all have opinions and discussing their respective moral standing is a part of the game. I didn't think you'd be that sensitive.

And yeah, mine was obviously a hyperbole and I apologize for that, but you can't deny you've been rambling about Berlusconi's comeback much more than anyone else. And you keep talking about it like a massive movement just taking place despite the fact it hasn't been all that evident in the most recent polls. You seemed to me (emphasis on seemed, again sorry if I misunderstood) overly excited about all this.

Anyway, predicting that Sarkozy would make it to 48% would have been an audacious but defensible prediction. Predicting, with such confidence, that he would win while he was polling in the low 40s was just plain stupid.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, I've been "rambling" about his comeback because 95% of the people here viciously hate him and you have one person that actually refuses to recognize that he's had any type of comeback. So, yeah, by comparison I guess I do seem like a fan.

I'm not getting into a flame war about my Sarkozy prediction but I must say your reasoning there makes absolutely no sense. Saying he'd end up with 48% of the vote while polling in the low 40s would have been fine but predicting he'd get just 2.1% more than that is plain stupid? Uh. Ok. It would have been indefensible if he ended up being swamped but he wasn't so I don't understand why guessing closer to the actual result was stupid. It just seemed stupid at a certain time.

Let's just drop that. Feel free to start a new thread to battle that one out. I think you've done enough damage here.

Sorry, but I'm not going to let this stand.

First of all, who the hell is the guy who "actually refuses to recognize that he's had any type of comeback"? I hope you're not talking about me, because that would mean you really didn't pay attention.

Also, the fact you seem to think "viciously" hating Berlusconi is something else than the soundest and most natural possible attitude is already pretty bad. This guy is a vile abomination of mankind. That's a fact. There's no need to be a moderate hero about this.

And yes, of course it does make some sense to imagine the gap would narrow a bit. Elections do tend to narrow more often than not (though of course it could have narrowed much less than it actually did). But for a candidate as deeply unpopular as Sarkozy to actually pull a win, it would take much more. Yeah, there's a pretty big difference between 48% and 50%. But even this doesn't really matter. You said "Sarkozy will win". You didn't even say he might win or there's a fair chance. You made a ridiculously bold prediction that turned out decidedly wrong: you lost. You can't use the fact he came close as an excuse.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To be absolutely fair with Berlusconi (never thought I'd say these words!) he did not exactly say that. He said racial laws was Mussolini's greatest fault but that he also did good things. Which, of course, remains horrifying, especially on Memorial Day.

Honestly, I have absolutely no idea what political impact it will have.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Monti might end up 4th... LOL

[Antonio the Sixth]

While a different outcome was possible, Monti tanking compared to early polls was always the most likely. I wouldn't bet on him breaking 10%.

Yeah, it takes major political skill to siphon out Berlusconi's hardcore base (that was the only way for Monti to gain traction). A political skill Monti has made it clear he doesn't have. Running was really a stupid idea.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Prediction: Berlusconi will win again.

Just recently, a left-managed bank in Siena did blow up and this drags Bersani and Monti down.

Yes, I've been hearing about that stuff (I watch the TV news on http://tg.la7.it/)

From what I understand, the accusations thrown at Bersani are frivolous at best. The left is dismissing them pretty confidently (which is far from being usual, you know...). Also, these kinds of scandals happen every month or so, so don't make much of it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Four point race.

Tecnè

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.7%
Center-right - 28.9%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 15.1%
M5S - 14.9%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.2%
Others - 3.2%

Quorum

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.6%
Center-right - 28.7%
M5S - 15.7%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 13.8%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.7%
Others - 3.5%

DEAR GOD

[Antonio the Sixth]

Italy is a beautiful country, but their elections never fail to be depressing. It's mind boggling how Berlusconi can still be taken seriously (let alone a serious contender for PM again) by nearly a third of voters and turned this election, which was supposed to mark the end of the post-94 era, into another close election in which he's a strong contender.

But Hash's Rules of Elections #1: Voters are idiots.

Yeah, basically.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wrote a post pro Berlusconi.

It was deleted ipso facto.

Love your freedom of speech.

I spoke out against that posts' deletion FTR.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Monti plays the Red Scare card too now. What a despicable moron.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Monti plays the Red Scare card too now. What a despicable moron.

Is there audio of it? I saw the headlines but I can't imagine actually hearing the guy attack anything/anyone.

http://tg.la7.it/politica/video-i661442

He actually has been doing that continually in the past few weeks, despite always keeping his robotic monotone.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Grillo asked Al Quaeda to bomb the Italian Parliament. Yes, for real.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Grillo asked Al Quaeda to bomb the Italian Parliament. Yes, for real.

So we got our answer: Monti and Co. will get third.

Don't be so sure. This might actually help Grillo, you know.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm at a campaign meeting. Someone said Grillo claims he never made the al Qaeda remark.

He was recorded on TV. LOL.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Demopolis from yesterday...

Italia. Bene Comune - 33.8%
Center-right - 28%
M5S - 16.5%
Con Monti per l'Italia - 15.4%
Rivoluzione Civile - 4.3%

I found slightly different numbers...

Una coalizione di Centro Sinistra guidata da Bersani: 34,2%
Una coalizione di Centro Destra guidata da Berlusconi: 27,4%
Una coalizione di Centro guidata da Monti: 15,5%
Movimento 5 Stelle di Grillo: 16%
Rivoluzione Civile di Ingroia: 4,5%
Altre coalizioni o liste: sotto il 2,4%
Non sa: 20%
Affluenza: 75%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Apparently Berlusconi's big economic speech today was about repealing the new property tax (replacing lost revenue by striking a tax deal with Switzerland), the regional business tax and cut personal income tax. Naturally there's nothing about how to finance any of this.

It's actually worse than that. He said he would pay taxpayers back for the additional taxes they have already paid under Monti. A 2-year-old kid would understand the trick.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How does the majority bonus thing work? and does the bonus apply to the senate as well?

Hi Lurker, I encourage you to read the introduction I wrote in the opening posts of this thread. By post#4 and #5, there's everything you need to know about the intricacies of the Italian voting system.

Anyway, yes, the short version is as the others said. The coalition with the most vote gets a guaranteed national 340-seats blocs for the House, and a similar guaranteed seat block - but at the regional level - for the Senate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What if 1994 strikes and Grillo wins?

He can't technically "win" since he doesn't have a coalition and thus doesn't qualify for the majority bonus. I have absolutely no idea what happens if an individual party comes ahead of all the coalitions. That would be a heck of a crazy situation to see, though. After all, Grillo doesn't even actually want to rule. His main plank is end representative democracy altogether and replace it with some fuzzy internet stuff nobody understands a sh*t about.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is Demopolis biased? Their latest poll (made 01/31-02/01) has the left still 8 points ahead.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is Demopolis biased? Their latest poll (made 01/31-02/01) has the left still 8 points ahead.

Do you mean EMG? The latest Demopolis I can find has the margin at six.

Yeah, sorry, meant EMG.

For some reason I though la7's polls were conducted by Demopolis...

[Antonio the Sixth]

What if 1994 strikes and Grillo wins?

He can't technically "win" since he doesn't have a coalition and thus doesn't qualify for the majority bonus. I have absolutely no idea what happens if an individual party comes ahead of all the coalitions.

Are you sure of this? the (Italian) wiki just states "the coalition that wins the most votes" as if it were self-evident that no single list could beat the strongest coalition. I did find this stating "the list or coalition".

That would mean that a coalition getting less votes than the M5S alone would still win 54% of seats? The ridiculousness of Italy's electoral system just took a whole new proportion.

Ah wait, so Sole24Ore has a different interpretation? Interesting... Don't know how reliable that is. I hope the text of the law is available somewhere.